Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDER POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM SECTOR CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE
THIS AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT IS NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO
THE EAST WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A ZANESVILLE
TO LEXINGTON LINE...CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES. WILL ENTER
THE TRI STATE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND INTO CHARLESTON
THIS EVENING. THREAT OF THUNDER SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED...BUT HAVE
HELD ONTO THIS POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE HEATING AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE SEEN THE WINDS STRUGGLE TO GET GOING
SOMEWHAT IN CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON GIVEN THE UPGLIDE
NATURE...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP
BUMP UP THESE VELOCITIES AT THE SURFACE.

COLD FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS UNTIL MORNING ACROSS THE WEST...AND EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS FROM
CLEARING QUICKLY DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOULD SEE A MORE RAPID
CLEARING BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND WILL COOL IN
ACCORDANCE WITH RAINFALL AND THE ASSOCIATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT...DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH
OF THE REGION...AND HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BUILDS IN. WITH A
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING UNDER THE BUILDING HIGH...EXPECTING FOG TO
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS.

CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY...WITH MAX
TEMPS RANGING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH...AND LOW TO MID
60S NORTH. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
SOUTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE BOTH
MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR THEME THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHIFTS
LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN DAYS 6-7 THE GFS
AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.

POPS WERE RAISED WEDNESDAY TO BETTER MATCH HPC WITH ONLY MINOR
CHANGES THEREAFTER. HPC WAS USED FOR TEMPS WITH VERY SLIGHT CHANGES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL GET RID OF THE LAST OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN BKW AND
CRW THIS EVENING.

SOME ISOLATED CB IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM 21Z TO 06Z.
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND CEILINGS WILL DROP TO LOW END
MVFR...AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO IFR IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR UNTIL 12Z...AND WILL SEE QUICK
DRYING AFTERWARDS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAK UP AREA WIDE
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
LIFR FOG POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/MDP/JMV
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-VAZ003-004-WVZ007>011-014>020-026>040-046-
047-101945-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-PUTNAM-
KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-024-025-101945-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-LINCOLN-
MINGO-LOGAN-
339 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 765 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>007-092015-
BOYD-CABELL-CARTER-GALLIA-GREENUP-LAWRENCE-MASON-WAYNE-
349 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BOYD...CENTRAL GALLIA...EASTERN
CARTER...LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN CABELL...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHEASTERN GREENUP AND SOUTHWESTERN MASON
COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
RIO GRANDE TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CANNONSBURG TO 5 MILES WEST OF
SANDY HOOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

OTHER IMPACTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
HOPEWELL...SUMMIT...BUCHANAN
...FALLSBURG...ASHTON...GALLOPOLIS
FERRY...ADAMSVILLE...CENTERVILLE...PRINCESS...MARTHA
...OLDTOWN...DURBIN...COALTON...
WORTHINGTON...WESTWOOD...RUSSELL...GRAYSON LAKE STATE
PARK...GRAYSON...GARNER...FLATWOODS...CATLETTSBURG...
CANNONSBURG...BELLEFONTE...ASHLAND...SOUTH
POINT...PROCTORVILLE...IRONTON...COAL
GROVE...CHESAPEAKE...BURLINGTON...KENOVA AND CEREDO.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES

...I-64 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 167 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 1 AND 15 IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

12

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