Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT TUESDAY BECOMES STATIONARY WEDNESDAY. NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR BEGINNING TO SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.  WITH
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ALL AREAS...THESE SHOWERS WILL YIELD
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF A WILLIAMSON TO
CHARLESTON TO CLARKSBURG LINE.  ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY.  PCPN SHOULD TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.  POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL IN STORMS WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
WEAK WIND SHEAR IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WAFFLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE BIG PLAYER IN THIS WET
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL
WITH THIS PATTERN AS THE COLD FRONT...BECOMES STATIONARY NRN WV AND
CENTRAL OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT.  BUT THE DEEP MOISTURE GETS PULLED
EASTWARD INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT...SO DESPITE THE FRONT HANGING
AROUND...SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE MODELS ARE HAVING SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE CANADIAN MUCH SLOWER THAN THE REST OF
THE MODELS.  THE GFS IS A HINT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...BUT
IT HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS SO IT LOOKS LIKE A LATE
AFTERNOON PUSH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT SEEMS
REASONABLE.  WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER STORMS.  THIS WAVE WILL
PASS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  BUT THE NEXT WAVE
SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND 12Z THURSDAY AND SLOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE GETTING SWEPT
EAST...BRINGING AND END TO THE RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...THE MAV AND MET WERE VERY CLOSE SO HAVE GENERALLY
BLENDED BETWEEN THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE 12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SO PERHAPS THE MODELS ARE GETTING MORE
INSYNC.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL BE COMPLETE BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE AT
THAT TIME.  THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLING OUT...SO A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THE SKY MAKE
TAKE LONGER TO CLEAR HOWEVER AS THE NW FLOW AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS LONGER.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE
DRY WEATHER AS THE MOISTURE IS LIMITED AT BEST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW QUICKLY WILL THE FRONT RETURN NORTHWARD.
THE CANADIAN AND EARLIER GFS RUNS QUICKLY BROUGHT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH AND SUGGESTED IT COULD RAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.  FOR
NOW HAVE JUST BEGUN TO EDGE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN BACK INTO THE
REGION LATE SAT NIGHT AND THEN INCREASE THEM SOME SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS ENERGY EJECTS OUT OF THE SWRN US TROUGH AND RIDES ACROSS
THE RIDGE OVER THE SERN US.  MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE
INCREASE AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVES...A
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ANY TIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  FOR
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE HPC GUIDANCE AS
THEY COMPARED WELL WITH THE 850 MB TEMP FCST AND ALSO WITH THE
CLOUDS AROUND...WHICH SHOULD HOLD THE HIGHS DOWN JUST A TOUCH DAY 6
AND 7 ALONG WITH ALLOWING FOR A SLOW MODERATION OVERNIGHT FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT-BKN040-050 CU FIELD MAY YIELD A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOUNTAINS AND OHIO RIVER AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS.
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

SW-W SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY/...
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JKF/ESS
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...JKF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
433 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-092045-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
433 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE WARNED ON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
422 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 38.61N 81.98W
06/08/2009  E0.50 INCH       PUTNAM             WV   POST OFFICE

            DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
432 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             PARKERSBURG             39.26N 81.54W
06/08/2009  E0.88 INCH       WOOD               WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     HEAVY RAIN       COTTAGEVILLE            38.87N 81.82W
06/08/2009  M0.56 INCH       JACKSON            WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRED IN 20 MINUTES

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
448 PM EDT MON JUN 08 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             FAIRPLAIN               38.75N 81.69W
06/08/2009  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

NW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
500 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             WINIFREDE               38.16N 81.55W
06/08/2009  U0.25 INCH       KANAWHA            WV   PUBLIC

&&

NNNN

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