River Flood Warning 1, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES NORTHEAST TODAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BRINGS A FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY DEPICTING A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. COUPLED WITH SOME GOOD OVERRUNNING AND A WELL
DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A
SOLID SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN PLACES.
FEATURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL
CARRY THE POPS WITH IT. LOCAL MODELS SEEM TO BE DOING A DECENT JOB
HANDLING THE RAIN ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE...BUT
NOT SO GREAT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND CONTINUES TO RESOLVE THE QPF
SHIELD STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...LARGELY
CONSTRUCTED THE NEAR TERM POP GRIDS FROM LOCAL MODELS TO THE
NORTH...AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR NOW. ALSO...TAILORED
THE HIGHER BAND OF QPF ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS WELL.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD RELAX UPON PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH
ONLY SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE. CANNOT REMOVE THE
POPS IN GOOD FAITH ALTOGETHER UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT...BUT FEEL THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT BY THIS EVENING.

WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...AND A COMMON AIR MASS...DID NOT
USE A LARGE SPREAD OF MAX T VALUES MONDAY. IN THE END...USED A BLEND
OF THE SREF TEMPERATURES...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL AS OF
LATE...AND THE BIAS CORRECTED MET VALUES...IN A MANUALLY PRODUCED
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TUE-WED PRODUCING PCPN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND WV WED-EARLY THU. THE GFS BECOMES NOTICEABLY
FASTER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF IN PROGRESSING THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM/ECMWF/SREF BRING THE BULK
OF PCPN TO SOUTHEAST OH BY THU 00Z...WHILE GFS BRINGS IT ALONG THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY THE SAME TIME. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW HIGHER
QPF INTENSITY THAN THE GFS AND SREF.

WENT WITH SREF AND NAM PCPN SOLUTIONS FOR POPS/WX WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE. THEREFORE...DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
     WHILE WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTH PORTIONS OF WV BY WED 00Z.
KEPT PREVIOUS THINKING ALLOWING A LULL IN PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE APPROACH OF NEXT UPPER AND SURFACE
FEATURE FROM THE WEST/OHIO VALLEY.  INCREASE POPS ON WED INTO EARLY
THU TO LIKELY...BUT WILL POSSIBLY BE INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL WHEN
THE EVENT GETS CLOSER.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF GMOS AND ECMWF FOR DEWPOINTS...MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. GENERALLY

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA WED NT AND THEN STALLS IN OR NEAR THE
AREA...UNTIL ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH / COLD FRONT ARRIVE SAT.
THIS FEATURE WAS ABSENT IN THE GFS BUT PRESENT IN THE ECMWF AND
GEM-HEM...THE FASTER ECMWF PREFERRED BY HPC AND REFLECTED IN THIS
PACKAGE.  THE WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS A BIT
MORE TAME COMPARED WITH THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE MID WEEK SYSTEM COULD
STILL TURN OUT TO BE SOMEWHAT WET IN TERMS OF QPF.

USED HPC / MOSGUIDE BLEND FOR MOST OF THE TEMPERATURES WITH NO MAJOR
DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL SLATED IN WHAT IS BASICALLY PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH...ALTHOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MOST OF THE LOWLANDS THROUGH LATE MORNING...AND AFTERNOON FOR EKN
AND CKB. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING THROUGH...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ON THE BACK SIDE...AND KEEP CEILINGS AT LOW
END MVFR AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT.

UNTIL THEN...WILL SEE CRW AND CKB OSCILLATE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS. BKW HAS A CHANCE TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH. VISIBILITIES IN RAIN HAVE CONSISTENTLY
BEEN MVFR...AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z TUESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ015-016-018-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013-014-017-019-
020-050900-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-WIRT-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-
449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOILS WILL REMAIN NEAR SATURATED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGES AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ003-004-WVZ015-016-018-024>040-046-047-050900-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-KANAWHA-ROANE-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-
BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
449 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SOILS WILL REMAIN NEAR SATURATED DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL.
A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS COULD CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS...LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGES AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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