Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Charleston, WV

Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Gallia County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
949 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY...STALLING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ISSUED QUICK
UPDATE TO POPS...SKY...AND WX GRIDS SINCE THIS PRECIP SLID A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. SAT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
FRONT HAS STARTED A SOUTHERLY PUSH AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED HAS BEGUN.
AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN WHERE SOME STORMS MAY
REACH SEVERE LIMITS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

..PREVIOUS DISC BELOW...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...FROM HLG TO ZZV TO CVG. THIS LEAVES THE REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR AT THE MOMENT. INITIAL AREA OF SHOWERS FROM COMPLEX TO THE
WEST SEEMS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER SO
HAVE TAPERED BACK THE POPS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THIS
FEATURE. BUT STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTION FORM OVER EAST CENTRAL
KY...ON TAIL END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.
THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AS IT SLIDES NE IN TO
ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN WORKED OVER ALREADY...SO EXPECT THAT
WHILE THIS DAMPEN OUT BEFORE REACH THE COAL FIELDS OF WV.

LATER ON THIS MORNING...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE FRONT EDGE SOUTHWARD
TODAY.  AS IT DOES...INITIAL WILL SEE SHOWERS ON THE ANAFRONT SIDE
AS THE SFC FRONT SETTLES SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE 850 MB FRONT.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO ERN KY AND SRN PORTIONS OF WV
WHERE MORE DAY TIME HEATING WILL BE BOOSTING THE INSTABILITY...MORE
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.  AGAIN SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.  FOR TEMPERATURES DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES AS UNCERTAINTY
ABOUNDS DUE TO THE FRONTAL POSITION AND SKY COVER.  IF IT DOES REACH
UP INTO THE LOW 80S BEFORE THE CONVECTION.

BY 00Z TONIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST AREAS AND THE
STRONGER STORMS THROUGH.  BUT THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK NE WHICH WILL PUSH MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK OVER
THE FRONT.  THIS WILL ALLOW MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
BEYOND 6Z. FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN DEVIATED LITTLE FROM GUIDANCE
DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN FROM CLOUDS AND PCPN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...PROVIDING A
DECENT SWATH OF PRECIPITATION. WILL INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE
SYSTEM THEN PULLS OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE
MODELS FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY FRIDAY THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAKES A RETURN AS WE GET IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. STAYED CLOSED TO HPC
GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTH LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FLOW NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
KY INTO WV. THIS FIRST AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS HTS AND SHOULD REACH
PKB BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AND AS
IT DOES...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PASSES. EXPECT MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS...ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL.

BEHIND THE FRONT THE CEILINGS WILL DROP DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AS THE
NRN FLOW INTERACT WITH THE LINGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE NEXT SFC
WAVE WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
REINTRODUCE RAIN TO THE AREA WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z THURSDAY/...
POSSIBLE IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL CONTAIN SOME
DOWNPOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS...
INCLUDING PONDING ON STREETS...AND FILLING OF CULVERTS AND OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ESS/RPY
NEAR TERM...KMC/ESS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JMV/TJT
AVIATION...ESS
HYDROLOGY...

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