Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
319 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

CONVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH ARE SEEING THE MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH 21Z.
EXPECT OTHER AREAS TO FILL IN AS THE DAY GOES INTO THE EVENING.
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON NATRONA COUNTY DUE TO RECENT FLOODING ISSUES.
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARING NW WY AT 21Z AND THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTH TONIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN KEEPING CONVECTION GOING WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIP CHANCES A LITTLE TONIGHT TO REFLECT THINKING. KEEPING SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WIND AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CONVECTION FIRE UP AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS IN MOST AREAS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW SUNDAY PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST FROM ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST SHOULD STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE LESS CONVECTION AS DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY AND THEN TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY
SETTING UP A SW FLOW ALOFT. WILL SEE BREEZY AREAS ON TUE AS WELL.
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ZONES WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY THE
FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES WILL SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. TEMPS
WILL BE WARMING UP THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH 80S TO AROUND 90 ON
MONDAY THEN 80S AND 90S ON TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

ECMWF/GFS AND GEFS MEAN CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLOSED LOW
OFF OF NW COAST EJECTING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES NE INTO CENTRAL CANADA
OVER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. WYOMING WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
UNDER INFLUENCE OF DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES
PUSHING MOSTLY DRY FRONTS INTO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST KEEPS LOW POPS NEAR THE FRONT ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH. H7 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FROM
16C-18C...SO BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT
IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S ALONG WITH LOW RH/S
MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE. THIS PATTERN WILL DRY OUT FINE
FUELS AND INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST TO WEAKEN/FILL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER
HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO STRENGTHENING AND EXPANDING ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING BACK THE
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH FORECAST BRINGING
SLIGHT CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN OVER WYOMING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 03Z ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH 05Z IN NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL
GENERALLY PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES...BUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 08Z...BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF KRIW...KLND AND KCPR FROM 08Z THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.
SLIGHTLY DRIER...WEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS WYOMING SUNDAY...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES MONDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A DECREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH WARMER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH LOWER AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
500 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ001>020-022>030-051100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
500 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PREVALENT OVER WYOMING TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN EXPECTED.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH ARE LIKELY FROM THE STRONGER STORMS. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT UNDER SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES...
WHERE LARGE HAIL OF ONE INCH OR GREATER AS WELL AS 60 MPH WINDS COULD
OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LESSENS SUNDAY...AND EVEN FURTHER ON
MONDAY AS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER MOVES IN.

HOT...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WYOMING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ANY WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH OR HAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
433 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ012-013-023>025-042330-
JACKSON HOLE-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-STAR VALLEY-TETON AND GROS
VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-
433 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN...SUBLETTE AND TETON
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 429 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 7 MILES SOUTH OF PALISADES...OR
27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN SUBLETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN TETON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE LOCATIONS OF ALPINE...
U.S. HWY 26/89 MILE MARKER 120 AND U.S. HWY 26/89 MILE MARKER 130...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4322 11105 4333 11106 4334 11105 4333 11045
      4306 11049 4313 11106 4322 11106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 275DEG 23KT 4324 11119

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
521 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ030-050000-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-
521 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SWEETWATER COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

AT 520 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES WEST OF CHAIN LAKES...OR 19 MILES NORTH
OF WAMSUTTER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF
CHAIN LAKES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4203 10763 4178 10765 4184 10823 4202 10821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 273DEG 17KT 4193 10810

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
533 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ015-019-026-050015-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-WIND
RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-
533 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST FREMONT...SOUTHEAST
SUBLETTE AND EXTREME NORTHEAST SWEETWATER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
MDT...

AT 531 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF BIG SANDY RECREATIONAL AREA...OR
13 MILES NORTHEAST OF FARSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHERN SWEETWATER...SOUTHEASTERN SUBLETTE AND
SOUTHWEST FREMONT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE LOCATION OF STATE HWY 28
MILE MARKER 20...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4239 10893 4215 10894 4219 10944 4237 10943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 272DEG 12KT 4228 10931

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
555 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ007-017-050045-
OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-WIND RIVER BASIN-
555 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FREMONT COUNTY
UNTIL 645 PM MDT...

AT 552 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF COTTONWOOD PASS...OR 20 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SHOSHONI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE LOCATION
OF LOST CABIN...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4342 10741 4320 10756 4337 10796 4354 10785
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 295DEG 10KT 4342 10779

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

WYZ019-030-050100-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 618 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROOKS GAP...OR 22 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JEFFREY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
RIVERTON AT 1-800-211-1448.

LAT...LON 4240 10778 4205 10782 4214 10828 4218 10829
      4236 10825
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 273DEG 11KT 4225 10813

BRANHAM