Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
222 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
FIRST LINE OF STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS AFTER
MOVING THROUGH YNP. EVERYTHING EVOLVING ABOUT AS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR THE FACT THAT THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL DRYING EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
LAPS ANALYSIS IS SHOWING BUILDING CAPES WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 50. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED A SVR TSTM
WATCH FOR FREMONT...HOT SPRINGS...PARK AND TETON COUNTIES THROUGH
9 PM THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FORMING OVER ERN IDAHO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WAVE PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER
CENTRAL WYOMING WILL ALSO AID THE CURRENT CONVECTION AS IT MOVES
EAST OF THE DIVIDE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/THERMAL TROUGH APPEARS
HEADED FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF TUESDAY AND HAVE ADDED IN SOME TSTMS
AGAIN FOR CENTRAL WYOMING. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
WHILE THE GFS REMAINS WAY TOO DRY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS
INTO OUR NERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR A FEW
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER JOHNSON COUNTY. SW FLOW INCREASES
ELSEWHERE. ON WEDNESDAY...A DRIER SW FLOW MAY ACTUALLY TAKE HOLD
WITH ONLY THE NRN BORDER AREAS CLOSE TO THE TROUGH DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH THAT PASSES ACROSS MONTANA WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AND
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL COOLING.
HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED COVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BE A FOCUS FOR OUR NRN
AND ERN ZONES ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SW CANADA WITH UPPER RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SW UNITED STATES. THIS PUTS WY IN A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHORTWAVES EJECTED BY THE PAC NW TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS MONTANA WITH NW AND NORTHERN WY ON THE SOUTH END OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND POSSIBLY
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES. THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THURS THROUGH MONDAY. WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF SOME MOISTURE DOES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST UNCHANGED SAT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE SOUTH WITH THE ISOLATED STORM THREAT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM TO HOT SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL
FRONTS WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WY AT TIMES BRINGING SLIGHT
COOLING TO HIGHS THERE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THURS AND NEXT MONDAY
BASED ON 00Z MODEL TIMING.

AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE COUNTIES OF TETON...PARK...FREMONT AND
HOT SPRINGS WILL BE MOST IMPACTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH GUSTY WIND...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWEST.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE. THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LESS AND LESS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH 70S TO LOWER
80S WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MINIMUM RHS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE TEENS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CHURCH
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
818 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

WYZ001>020-022>030-071100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
818 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST
WYOMING. A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL OVER QUARTER SIZE...DAMAGING WIND...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHWEST WYOMING...INCLUDING YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK. STORMS WILL
BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND TO 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HOT...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
WYOMING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ANY WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH OR HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THANK YOU.

TEAM RIVERTON

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