Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE MERGED A BIT IN THEIR CONSENSUS THROUGH
FRIDAY (CENTERS UPPER LOW NEAR 130W). HOWEVER BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
GFS MAINTAINS A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A 130W POSITION. THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN ALSO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION AND GIVEN
STRENGTH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGE...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF PROVIDE A MORE
REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND MAKE THE GFS AN OUTLIER. IN ADDITION THERE
WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE WITH THE
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN ACTUALLY SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT DESPITE ITS
PROGRESSIVE BIAS. SO THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS
SLOWER TO PUSH CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CREST LATE WEEK.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND 500MB RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE REASONABLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND COVER MOST AREAS WITH MUCH LESS PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD KEEP THUNDER ISOLATED AND CLOSE TO THE SIERRA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
THERMAL TROUGH BEGIN TO FAVOR THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW INCREASING
SFC CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION WAS MAINTAINED FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWER MODEL EVOLUTION BUT COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM
MONO UP INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV ALONG STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE. A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON FINAL LOCATION OF UPPER LOW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL FRI-SAT WHEN INCREASING WEST SFC WINDS AFFECT
RIDGES AND LEE MTN VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECASTS FOR
SATURDAY SHOW EVENTUAL DRYING WITH CONVECTION PUSHING OFF THE TO THE
EAST AND LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP DOWNWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REBOUND UNDER
INCREASING RIDGE/HEIGHTS NEXT WEEK. OVERALL READINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GEFS MOS ENSEMBLE. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD THUNDER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE KTVL-KTRK-KRNO AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 45KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
621 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NVZ004-290200-
WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND RANGE INCLUDING PYRAMID LAKE-
621 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...

AT 613 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR US 50 AT LYON-CHURCHILL CO LINE...OR 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAHONTAN RESERVOIR. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...SILVER SPRINGS...
  SILVER SPRINGS AIRPORT...JUNCTION US 50 AND NV 117 (SHECKLER
  CUTOFF) AND US 50 AT LYON-CHURCHILL CO LINE.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS ON US HIGHWAY 50 BETWEEN SILVER
SPRINGS AND LAHONTAN RESERVOIR...AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF ALTERNATE US
95...AND ALTERNATE US 50. DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY CROSS
WINDS...WITH RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN PONDING WATER. SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN AND TURN ON
YOUR HEADLIGHTS.

BOATERS AND SWIMMERS ON OR NEAR LAHONTAN RESERVOIR SHOULD GET OUT OF
THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. DONT BE CAUGHT ON
THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3950 11887 3926 11891 3933 11930 3954 11925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 180DEG 0KT 3940 11913

RC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
632 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

NVZ003-290215-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-630 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN CARSON CITY AND MINDEN...

AT 626 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INDIAN HILLS...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF CARSON
CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN THREE
MILES...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30
TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...GARDNERVILLE...GENOA...INDIAN HILLS...
  JOHNSON LANE...MINDEN AND MINDEN-TAHOE AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS ON US 395 BETWEEN CARSON CITY AND
MINDEN. DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY CROSS WINDS...WITH RAPID
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING WATER.
SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN AND TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3909 11958 3891 11971 3894 11978 3900 11987
      3913 11984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 298DEG 3KT 3907 11980

RC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
641 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

CAZ071-NVZ003-290300-
GREATER RENO-CARSON CITY-MINDEN AREA-LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN
SIERRA COUNTIES-
641 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA...

AT 634 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COLD SPRINGS VALLEY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF
VERDI...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
THREE MILES...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF
AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...STEAD...COLD SPRINGS VALLEY...STEAD
  AIRPORT...US 395 AT CALIF-NEVADA LINE NEAR BORDERTOWN AND US 395 AT
  SIERRA-LASSEN CO LINE.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT TRAVELERS ON HIGHWAY 395 BETWEEN STEAD AND
HALLELUJAH JUNCTION. DRIVERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY CROSS
WINDS...WITH RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN PONDING WATER. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAIN
AND TURN ON YOUR HEADLIGHTS.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/RENO ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER UPDATES
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 12009 3975 11986 3957 11986 3957 12009
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 331DEG 5KT 3966 11998

OHARA