Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WGUS75 KREV 282343
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
443 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

CAC003-051-290100-
/O.CON.KREV.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090729T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONO CA-ALPINE CA-
443 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALPINE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONO COUNTIES...

AT 439 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR SONORA PASS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTIES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST A FEW INCHES OF FAST FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE
YOU ARE RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME
KILLERS IN HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR
CREEKS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...BE SURE YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE FIRST. THEN
CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO AT 775-673-8100. YOUR
REPORT MAY SAVE LIVES

LAT...LON 3828 11965 3836 11963 3838 11965 3842 11964
      3842 11953 3826 11948 3825 11962

$$

RC

000 
WGUS75 KREV 290055
FFSREV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
555 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

CAC003-051-290104-
/O.EXP.KREV.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-090729T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONO CA-ALPINE CA-
555 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM PDT FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN ALPINE AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONO COUNTIES...

THE STORMS THAT EARLIER PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAVE
DISSIPATED...WITH A DIMINISHING FLOOD THREAT. REMEMBER THAT MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

IF YOU OBSERVED FLOODING EARLIER IN THE WARNED AREA...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO AT 775-673-8100. YOUR REPORTS HELP
US IMPROVE OUR WARNING PROCESS.

LAT...LON 3828 11965 3836 11963 3838 11965 3842 11964
      3842 11953 3826 11948 3825 11962

$$

RC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
250 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE MERGED A BIT IN THEIR CONSENSUS THROUGH
FRIDAY (CENTERS UPPER LOW NEAR 130W). HOWEVER BEYOND FRIDAY...THE
GFS MAINTAINS A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A 130W POSITION. THE
UKMET AND CANADIAN ALSO MAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD SOLUTION AND GIVEN
STRENGTH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RIDGE...THESE SOLUTIONS ALONG WITH THE ECMWF PROVIDE A MORE
REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND MAKE THE GFS AN OUTLIER. IN ADDITION THERE
WAS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE WITH THE
12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN ACTUALLY SLOWING THINGS DOWN A BIT DESPITE ITS
PROGRESSIVE BIAS. SO THIS FORECAST LEANS MORE ON THE ECMWF WHICH IS
SLOWER TO PUSH CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CREST LATE WEEK.

INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND 500MB RH FIELDS IN THE GFS ARE REASONABLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND COVER MOST AREAS WITH MUCH LESS PUSH
EAST ON FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING
SHOULD KEEP THUNDER ISOLATED AND CLOSE TO THE SIERRA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND
THERMAL TROUGH BEGIN TO FAVOR THE GREAT BASIN AND ALLOW INCREASING
SFC CONVERGENCE. CONVECTION WAS MAINTAINED FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
SLOWER MODEL EVOLUTION BUT COVERAGE MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FROM
MONO UP INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NV ALONG STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE. A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON FINAL LOCATION OF UPPER LOW. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT UNTIL FRI-SAT WHEN INCREASING WEST SFC WINDS AFFECT
RIDGES AND LEE MTN VALLEYS.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF FEATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. CURRENT FORECASTS FOR
SATURDAY SHOW EVENTUAL DRYING WITH CONVECTION PUSHING OFF THE TO THE
EAST AND LIMITED TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP DOWNWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REBOUND UNDER
INCREASING RIDGE/HEIGHTS NEXT WEEK. OVERALL READINGS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR THE TOP END OF THE GEFS MOS ENSEMBLE. HOHMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD THUNDER WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE KTVL-KTRK-KRNO AREAS THROUGH
ABOUT 03Z. CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 45KT ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. HOHMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO