Alert archive / North Carolina / Winter Storm Warnings in 2009
Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Raleigh, NC
NWS Raleigh, NC issued this winter storm warning at Feb 28, 2009, 10:17 PM EST for 20 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 1, 2009, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 19 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2009, 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 1, 2009, 12:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Mar 2, 2009, 6:47 AM EST
- In force
- 19 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Raleigh, NC
Counties Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 442 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 68 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 450 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 934 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WWUS42 KRAH 010317 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-011100- /O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY 1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL IN SNOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. PEOPLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS...FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084-011100- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME SLEET WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE WATCH AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT. THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A SHIFT IN THE TRACK IN EITHER TIMING OR LOCATION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS...FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. $$ JFB/PWB
6 follow-up statements
000 WWUS42 KRAH 010925 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING. NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084-012130- /O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ /O.EXA.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...PITTSBORO... RALEIGH...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD MIDDAY... THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING... AND THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY MORNING. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY BE IN THE TEENS. EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS... AND AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-012130- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY 425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL IN SNOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY BE IN THE TEENS. EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS... AND AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-012130- /O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD 425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING... THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING... AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECT IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. $$ BSD/GIH
000 WWUS42 KRAH 011656 AAA WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-012200- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT... BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON... ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET... AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE TRIAD...AND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE TRIANGLE...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL WEST TO WINSTON SALEM...AND SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON...GREENSBORO...WINSTON SALEM...ASHEBORO...AND ALBEMARLE. THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR... INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS RALEIGH...AND LOUISBURG. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS TONIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-012200- /O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD 1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSES THE AREA. AS MUCH AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...IF POSSIBLE. $$ VINCENT
000 WWUS42 KRAH 012053 AAA WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-020430- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT... BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON... ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOST LIKELY FALLING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL...WEST TO GREENSBORO...AND SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON...GREENSBORO... WINSTON SALEM...ASHEBORO...AND ALBEMARLE. THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS RALEIGH...AND LOUISBURG. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME TREACHEROUS LATE TONIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-020430- /O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD 353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSES THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX...A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ VINCENT
000 WWUS42 KRAH 020406 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... .A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT... BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-021215- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT... BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON... ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY... SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM 1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON... GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT... WINSTON-SALEM... LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM HILLSBOROUGH AND RALEIGH-DURHAM NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO HENDERSON... ROXBORO... OXFORD... AND WARRENTON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT AND WESTERN SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER... AVERAGING 1 TO 3 INCHES. WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS... VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREA. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW AND SLUSH COVERED. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED ROADS SHOULD FREEZE SOLID LATER TONIGHT... AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP THROUGH THE 20S. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-021215- /O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD 1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT ... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. AREAS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH 200 AM... GRADUALLY BECOMING ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF LILLINGTON... SMITHFIELD... AND TARBORO. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ BADGETT
000 WWUS42 KRAH 021004 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING... NCZ021>023-038>040-073>076-083-084-021115- /O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY- MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO... ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO... ROCKINGHAM 504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE EARLIER SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE AREA... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING. $$ NCZ042-077-085-086-021115- /O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ JOHNSTON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG... RAEFORD 504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE EARLIER SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE AREA... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. $$ NCZ007>010-024>026-041-021400- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH 504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES. ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ NCZ011-027-028-043-021400- /O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON 504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE. $$ GIH
000 WWUS42 KRAH 021147 WSWRAH URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 NCZ007>010-024>026-041-021300- /O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON... WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH 647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE SNOW HAS ENDED... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING. ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION... BLUSTERY WINDS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. $$ NCZ011-027-028-043-021300- /O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/ HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE... ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON 647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE SNOW HAS ENDED... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION... BLUSTERY WINDS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. $$ GIH
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 28, 10:14 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 10:14 PM EST, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1014 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...WILL BE UPGRADING FORSYTH... GUILFORD... ALAMANCE... DAVIDSON... RANDOLPH... MONTGOMERY... AND STANLY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING... AND WE WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH UNCHANGED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DETAILS BELOW... ...SYNOPSIS. A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MAJOR WINTER STORM TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1014 PM... WE WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS FAR SOUTH AS TROY AND ALBEMARLE BASED ON SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS. THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF NY STATE... BUT WAS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH (1035+ MB) TO PUSH COLD DRY AIR WELL DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE DEW POINTS CONTINUED TO DROP THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTH... AND WERE IN THE TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. COLD AIR DAMMING WAS ALREADY BECOMING EVIDENT INTO OUR DAMMING REGION WITH CURRENT TEMPS AS LOW AS 35 AT WINSTON-SALEM... AND JUST ABOVE 32 NEAR THE VA BORDER REGION. GOOD COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAMMING REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION... THE MEMPHIS AREA CONTINUED TO GET LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THIS EVENING... THAT WILL AFFECT OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE... THEY HAVE HAD LOCALLY 5-8 INCHES OF SNOW (WHICH WAS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS). SOME AREAS ARE REPORTING 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE LATEST 00Z/01 MARCH NAM HAS COME IN AND IT SOLIDLY SUPPORTS THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID AND UPPER LOW OVER SC/NC SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE TWO MAJOR PERIODS OF QPF... ONE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY... THE OTHER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE)... ALONG AND WEST OF THE H7/H85 LOW TRACK. IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO TROY TO ALBEMARLE WILL HAVE WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION. THE 00Z/01 NAM SUPPORTS A RAPID SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION INTO NC FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN TO START... WITH A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 16Z-19Z IN THE WINSTON-SALEM TO GREENSBORO AREAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS AND PARTIALS. THE 00Z DATA THIS EVENING ALSO SUPPORTS A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS... AND A COLDER TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED (SEE ROANOKE SOUNDING). THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY... WITH POTENTIALLY 1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z-12Z SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW/SLEET WITH THE PARTIALS SUPPORTING SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 16Z-20Z (WITH A DISTINCT BELOW FREEZING COLD NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... AND A WARM NOSE NEAR FREEZING AT H85). THEN ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW BEFORE THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS... BEFORE THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW (DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT). WE WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA ALONE... AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THESE AREAS THROUGH QPF EVENT ONE ON SUNDAY... WITH A RAPID CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP EVENT TWO ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE RALEIGH-DURHAM... HENDERSON... SOUTHERN PINES AND ROCKINGHAM AREAS. SOME OF THIS WATCH AREA WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED TO A WARNING IN THE NEXT PACKAGE IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE SAME CONCERNING TRENDS. SINCE THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION... WE WILL GO AHEAD AN UPGRADE THAT AREA (AREA OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE) TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WE WILL USE 4-6 INCHES FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE (ALONG AND WEST OF THE MID LOW TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT... COULD ADD UP AS WELL). && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 PM... WINTER WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS ISSUED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE COMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT... AGREEING WITH HPC IN FOLLOWING ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS FORECAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FASTER THAN THE NAM MODEL. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START THE REAL CONCERN FOR WINTER WEATHER. INITIALLY HOWEVER A STRONG DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW AS SUNDAY EVENING APPROACHES. WITH THE MORE INLAND UPPER LOW TRACK THIS DRYING NOW WRAPS NORTHWEST INTO THE GREENSBORO AREA BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY. FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA... THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY... WITH THE NORTHEAST PARTS CLEARING LATEST... AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL BEST LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT IS ACTUALLY ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS THEY OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THESE TYPE OF DYNAMIC SITUATIONS. THEREFORE...THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP AMOUNTS. THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME REPRESENTS THE BEST CASE FOR SNOW AND COULD BE TOO WIDE IN ITS COVERAGE. WORKING WITH ROUGHLY FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRANSITIONING FROM AN INITIAL EIGHT TO ONE SNOW RATIO TOWARD A TWELVE TO ONE RATIO AS LIQUID AMOUNTS START TO DIMINISH. THIS PUTS FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... TAPERING OFF TO NEAR FOUR INCHES WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND PERHAPS ONE INCH SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO. THIS OF COURSE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM TRACK. A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY. WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER IN NEAR 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME PERIOD...SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL VISIBILITY PROBLEMS IN BLOWING SNOW... WIND CHILL VALUES COULD BE IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDINESS TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH UNTIL SNOW EXITS MID MORNING. LOWS 25 TO 30 SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 PM... VERY COLD IN THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY AND CLEAR WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW THURSDAY AND A QUICK WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 40S. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY... RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO WANE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD STAY BRISK AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. A SECOND BOUT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY... IN RESPONSE TO INTENSE LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW.... MAINLY FROM RDU WESTWARD. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACROSS INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT RWI/FAY...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THESE TERMINALS. THUS... IFR/LIFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE STRONG OUT OF THE NNE AT AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MAY REMAIN WELL-MIXED... LLWS COULD BE A THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A STRONG 40-50 KT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FT DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER INT/GSO SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD POSE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS. VFR CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084. && SYNOPSIS...BADGETT NEAR TERM...BADGETT/JFB/PAGANO SHORT TERM...RLH LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...JFB/MWS
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 6:07 AM EST, 16 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-011100- HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE- CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION ZONES. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON... BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH TWO INCHES... AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO... BLUSTERY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS COULD DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-011100- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE- DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY- MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND- 607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION ZONES. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WATCH. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... BLUSTERY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS COULD DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS. GIH
The office that day
Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 4:25 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | RAH | Edgecombe, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Nash and 2 more | 26 hr |
| Mar 1, 6:15 PM EST | River Flood Warning | RAH | Anson, Stanly | 17 hr |
| Mar 1, 6:30 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Stanly | 4 hr |
| Mar 1, 6:42 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | RAH | Hoke | 4 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in North Carolina, 2009Every winter storm warning in 2009
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.