Alert archive / North Carolina / Winter Storm Warnings in 2009

Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

February 28, 200920 counties in North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this winter storm warning at Feb 28, 2009, 10:17 PM EST for 20 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Mar 1, 2009, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 19 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2009, 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 1, 2009, 12:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 2, 2009, 6:47 AM EST
In force
19 hr
Issued by
NWS Raleigh, NC

Counties Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2009-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2009-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 450 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
442 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
450 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
934 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS42 KRAH 010317
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-011100-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY
1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BY MIDDAY...THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. AFTER A LULL IN SNOW DURING THE
EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON 
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
PEOPLE ACROSS THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST 
CONDITIONS...FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084-011100-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
1017 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. 

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON...SOME SLEET WILL MIX WITH THE RAIN. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SNOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE WATCH AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS 
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS CLOSELY LINKED TO THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. A SHIFT IN THE TRACK IN EITHER TIMING OR LOCATION
WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.

TRAVEL MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS
TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. PEOPLE ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS...FORECASTS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

JFB/PWB
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 010925
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084-012130-
/O.UPG.KRAH.WS.A.0002.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
/O.EXA.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-CHATHAM-WAKE-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TOWARD MIDDAY... THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND
SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING... AND
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE
TAPERING OFF ON MONDAY MORNING. STORM SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN
ADDITION... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND WIND CHILLS
COULD FREQUENTLY BE IN THE TEENS.

EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS... AND AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
IF POSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-012130-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...ALBEMARLE...TROY
425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM
EST MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT DURING THE MORNING. AS COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW.
A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER A
LULL IN SNOW DURING THE EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER BAND OF SNOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. STORM SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
TREACHEROUS AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND
HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. TRAVEL ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN
ADDITION... STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED... AND WIND CHILLS
COULD FREQUENTLY BE IN THE TEENS.

EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS... AND AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
IF POSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-012130-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD
425 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9
AM EST MONDAY.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND PIVOT NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER LOW... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
BY EARLY EVENING... THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING... AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING.
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECT IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING.

EVERYONE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA IS URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHILE DRIVING... ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

$$

BSD/GIH
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 011656 AAA
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF THE AREA.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-012200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.090301T1700Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...
AND SNOW. A TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED
BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE TRIAD...AND AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET IN THE TRIANGLE...BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL WEST TO
WINSTON SALEM...AND SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT...IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON...GREENSBORO...WINSTON
SALEM...ASHEBORO...AND ALBEMARLE. THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS RALEIGH...AND LOUISBURG.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
TREACHEROUS TONIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA
ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...IF POSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-012200-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD
1156 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER GEORGIA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSES THE AREA. AS MUCH
AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO
THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...IF POSSIBLE.

$$

VINCENT
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 012053 AAA
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
TONIGHT...BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-020430-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WILL
PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW BY
MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW MOST LIKELY FALLING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 AND INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR FROM CHAPEL HILL...WEST
TO GREENSBORO...AND SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND
WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON...GREENSBORO...
WINSTON SALEM...ASHEBORO...AND ALBEMARLE. THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS IN
THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LOCATIONS SUCH AS RALEIGH...AND
LOUISBURG.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME
TREACHEROUS LATE TONIGHT AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO ACCUMULATE ON AREA
ROADS AND HIGHWAYS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
TRAVEL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-020430-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.090301T2300Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD
353 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN GEORGIA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION LATER THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET 
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SUBSEQUENTLY CROSSES THE
AREA. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION TONIGHT MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX...A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME TREACHEROUS BY SUNRISE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO
THE TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$

VINCENT
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 020406
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...

.A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT... BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-021215-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...LEXINGTON...
ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...ROCKINGHAM
1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY. 

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE TRIAD AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT. THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS BURLINGTON...
GREENSBORO... HIGH POINT... WINSTON-SALEM...
LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM HILLSBOROUGH AND RALEIGH-DURHAM
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO HENDERSON... ROXBORO... OXFORD... AND
WARRENTON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT AND
WESTERN SANDHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER... AVERAGING 1 TO 3
INCHES. WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS.

DESPITE THE PREVIOUS WARM CONDITIONS... VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREA. ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
AND SLUSH COVERED. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE
TEENS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLUSHY AND SNOW COVERED
ROADS SHOULD FREEZE SOLID LATER TONIGHT... AS THE TEMPERATURES
DROP THROUGH THE 20S. 

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-085-086-021215-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD
1106 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
MONDAY. 

TRAVEL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS OVERNIGHT
... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. AREAS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION THROUGH 200 AM... GRADUALLY BECOMING ALL SNOW. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF LILLINGTON... SMITHFIELD... AND
TARBORO. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND WIND CHILLS COULD FREQUENTLY DROP INTO THE TEENS
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

CITIZENS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS AND CONDITIONS...AND TO AVOID TRAVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$

BADGETT
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 021004
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING...

NCZ021>023-038>040-073>076-083-084-021115-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-STANLY-
MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM
504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE EARLIER SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE AREA... AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING.

$$

NCZ042-077-085-086-021115-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
JOHNSTON-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHFIELD...LILLINGTON...LAURINBURG...
RAEFORD
504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE EARLIER SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE AREA... AND THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

$$

NCZ007>010-024>026-041-021400-
/O.CON.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH
504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THE WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES. 

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN
SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE. 
 
$$

NCZ011-027-028-043-021400-
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON
504 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED
THROUGH DAYBREAK. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN
SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE.

$$

GIH
000 
WWUS42 KRAH 021147
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

NCZ007>010-024>026-041-021300-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...RALEIGH
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE SNOW HAS ENDED... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH
HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN
SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION... BLUSTERY WINDS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

$$

NCZ011-027-028-043-021300-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-090302T1400Z/
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-WILSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROANOKE RAPIDS...NASHVILLE...
ROCKY MOUNT...WILSON
647 AM EST MON MAR 2 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE SNOW HAS ENDED... AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH
HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ROADS ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE SLUSHY... MAKING ROADS SLIPPERY IN
SPOTS. MOTORISTS THIS MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA
CAUTION... OR DELAY TRAVEL UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING IF POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION... BLUSTERY WINDS ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

$$

GIH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 28, 10:14 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 10:14 PM EST, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1014 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WILL BE UPGRADING FORSYTH... GUILFORD... ALAMANCE... DAVIDSON...
RANDOLPH... MONTGOMERY... AND STANLY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING... AND WE WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH
UNCHANGED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. DETAILS BELOW...

...SYNOPSIS.

A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE TOWARD SOUTHERN GEORGIA TONIGHT. THIS UPPER
LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NE TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A MAJOR
WINTER STORM TO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PIEDMONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1014 PM...

WE WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT AS FAR SOUTH AS TROY AND ALBEMARLE BASED ON
SEVERAL IMPORTANT FACTORS.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH
OF NY STATE... BUT WAS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH (1035+ MB) TO PUSH
COLD DRY AIR WELL DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE DEW POINTS
CONTINUED TO DROP THIS EVENING TO OUR NORTH... AND WERE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. COLD AIR DAMMING WAS ALREADY BECOMING
EVIDENT INTO OUR DAMMING REGION WITH CURRENT TEMPS AS LOW AS 35 AT
WINSTON-SALEM... AND JUST ABOVE 32 NEAR THE VA BORDER REGION. GOOD
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAMMING REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION... THE MEMPHIS AREA CONTINUED TO GET LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW  THIS EVENING... THAT WILL AFFECT
OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE... THEY HAVE HAD LOCALLY 5-8
INCHES OF SNOW (WHICH WAS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS). SOME AREAS
ARE REPORTING 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.

THE LATEST 00Z/01 MARCH NAM HAS COME IN AND IT SOLIDLY SUPPORTS THE
REST OF THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES WITH THE TRACK OF THE
MID AND UPPER LOW OVER SC/NC SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE TWO MAJOR PERIODS OF QPF... ONE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SUNDAY... THE OTHER OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT (WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE)... ALONG AND WEST OF THE H7/H85 LOW TRACK. IT
APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BURLINGTON TO TROY
TO ALBEMARLE WILL HAVE WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION.

THE 00Z/01 NAM SUPPORTS A RAPID SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION INTO NC FROM
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE ALL RAIN TO START...
WITH A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW BETWEEN 16Z-19Z IN
THE WINSTON-SALEM TO GREENSBORO AREAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS AND PARTIALS. THE 00Z DATA THIS EVENING ALSO
SUPPORTS A STRONGER UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS... AND A COLDER
TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED (SEE ROANOKE SOUNDING).

THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HEAVY... WITH POTENTIALLY 1 TO
LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF QPF BETWEEN 18Z-12Z SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW/SLEET WITH THE PARTIALS SUPPORTING
SNOW/SLEET BETWEEN 16Z-20Z (WITH A DISTINCT BELOW FREEZING COLD NOSE
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... AND A WARM NOSE NEAR FREEZING AT H85).
THEN ALL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW BEFORE THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF SLEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS... BEFORE THE CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW (DEPENDING ON THE EXTENT OF THE WARM NOSE ALOFT).

WE WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA ALONE...
AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THESE AREAS THROUGH QPF EVENT
ONE ON SUNDAY... WITH A RAPID CHANGE TO SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIP EVENT TWO ON SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS INCLUDES
THE RALEIGH-DURHAM... HENDERSON... SOUTHERN PINES AND ROCKINGHAM
AREAS. SOME OF THIS WATCH AREA WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED TO A WARNING
IN THE NEXT PACKAGE IF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THESE SAME
CONCERNING TRENDS.

SINCE THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR WINTER STORM FOR THE
PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION... WE WILL GO AHEAD AN UPGRADE THAT AREA (AREA
OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE) TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. WE WILL USE 4-6
INCHES FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE (ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MID LOW TRACK SUNDAY NIGHT... COULD ADD UP AS WELL).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM...

WINTER WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE COMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT... AGREEING WITH HPC IN
FOLLOWING ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. THUS
FORECAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FASTER THAN THE NAM
MODEL.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL START THE REAL CONCERN FOR WINTER WEATHER.
INITIALLY HOWEVER A STRONG DRY SLOT WILL WRAP AROUND THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW AS SUNDAY EVENING APPROACHES. WITH THE MORE INLAND UPPER
LOW TRACK THIS DRYING NOW WRAPS NORTHWEST INTO THE GREENSBORO AREA
BEFORE SUNSET SUNDAY. FOR THE MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
THE THREAT FOR WINTER WEATHER WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY... WITH THE NORTHEAST PARTS CLEARING
LATEST... AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.

THE POTENTIAL BEST LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT IS ACTUALLY ON THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
IS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAKENING DEFORMATION BAND AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE COULD
CERTAINLY BE UNDERDOING QPF AMOUNTS IN THE DEFORMATION BAND...AS
THEY OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THESE TYPE OF DYNAMIC SITUATIONS.
THEREFORE...THIS LEAVES SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP
AMOUNTS. THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME REPRESENTS THE BEST CASE FOR SNOW
AND COULD BE TOO WIDE IN ITS COVERAGE.

WORKING WITH ROUGHLY FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH LIQUID SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TRANSITIONING FROM AN INITIAL EIGHT TO ONE SNOW RATIO TOWARD A
TWELVE TO ONE RATIO AS LIQUID AMOUNTS START TO DIMINISH. THIS PUTS
FOUR TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT... TAPERING
OFF TO NEAR FOUR INCHES WEST OF HIGHWAY ONE... AND PERHAPS ONE INCH
SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE AND GOLDSBORO. THIS OF COURSE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM TRACK.

A SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PERSISTING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY. WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER IN NEAR 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME PERIOD...SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BESIDES THE
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY PROBLEMS IN BLOWING SNOW... WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD BE IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH MORE CLOUDINESS TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH UNTIL SNOW EXITS MID MORNING.

LOWS 25 TO 30 SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM...

VERY COLD IN THE EARLY PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS A STRONG
1036 MB HIGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP WELL
INTO THE 20S AND EVEN TEENS ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE 40S FOR THE MOST PART ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT KEEPS
CONDITIONS DRY AND CLEAR WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW
THURSDAY AND A QUICK WARMING TREND IS IN STORE FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONABLE...IN THE 40S. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TRIES TO SNEAK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT THERE DOES NOT SEEM
TO BE MUCH OF A PUSH AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
LIFT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO WANE. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE RAIN WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE LIKELY.
WINDS SHOULD STAY BRISK AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH.

A SECOND BOUT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL NC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY... IN RESPONSE
TO INTENSE LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS COLDER AIR
SPILLS INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW....
MAINLY FROM RDU WESTWARD. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ACROSS INT/GSO/RDU TERMINALS SUNDAY EVENING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT RWI/FAY...BUT THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEARS
TO STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THESE TERMINALS. THUS... IFR/LIFR CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AS
THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE
STRONG OUT OF THE NNE AT AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS
MAY REMAIN WELL-MIXED... LLWS COULD BE A THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT... AS A
STRONG 40-50 KT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2000 FT DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD.

THE SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVER INT/GSO
SUNDAY EVENING WHICH COULD POSE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS.

VFR CONDITIONS MAKE A RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST VERY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... AND WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ007>010-024>026-040-041-075-076-083-084.
&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT/JFB/PAGANO
SHORT TERM...RLH
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...JFB/MWS
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 6:07 AM EST, 16 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-011100-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION
ZONES. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA... RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... BEFORE BECOMING ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH TWO INCHES... AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. ALSO... BLUSTERY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO
20 MPH COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THESE WINDS COULD DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-011100-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
607 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS CONSTRUCTION
ZONES. OTHERWISE... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOWFALL... BLUSTERY WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 40 MPH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS COULD DROP WIND CHILLS DOWN
INTO THE TEENS.

GIH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 4:25 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryRAHEdgecombe, Halifax, Harnett, Hoke, Johnston, Nash and 2 more26 hr
Mar 1, 6:15 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningRAHAnson, Stanly17 hr
Mar 1, 6:30 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHStanly4 hr
Mar 1, 6:42 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryRAHHoke4 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in North Carolina, 2009Every winter storm warning in 2009

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.