Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. WHILE THE FRONTS WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE HIGH
HUMIDITY... VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 315 IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NC UNTIL 10 PM EDT...

THROUGH THIS EVENING: MORNING DATA ANALYSES REVEAL A PRIMARY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS ALOFT -- THAT CONTAINED SEVERAL
WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER SW PA... NORTHERN KY... AND SE
AR -- WHICH STRETCHED FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE PRIMARY TROUGH IS PRECEDED BY A LEAD IMPULSE OVER
EASTERN GA. A 70 KT UPPER JET STRETCHED NE/WRD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHERNMOST VORTICITY CENTER OVER SE AR. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A FRACTURED/SEGMENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHED
THROUGH CENTRAL PA AND NY W/WRD THROUGH THE EASTERN TN VALLEY.
MEANWHILE... THE SOUTHERNMOST COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT/PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH STRETCHED FROM A WEAK (1006 MB) FRONTAL WAVE OVER NORTHERN
VA SSW/WRD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA... WHILE A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA.

THE DEEP PSEUDO-MOIST ADIABATIC THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE (ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER) AND RESULTANT RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT ENCOMPASSED NC OVER PREVIOUS DAYS... HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT THIS MORNING... WHICH IS
APPARENT ON LATEST WV IMAGERY AND CAPTURED WELL BY THE 12Z GSO RAOB.
THE DRY AIR ALOFT COULD AID IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER CENTRAL
NC IN A NUMBER OF WAYS THIS AFTERNOON: 1) IT WILL PROMOTE STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DESPITE SOME RESIDUAL CIRRUS ATTENDANT THE EASTERN GA TROUGH
ALOFT... AND EVENTUAL CU DEVELOPMENT. 2) IT COULD SERVE TO STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (POTENTIAL/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY) AS LAYER
LIFTING ATTENDANT THE PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT TO THE WEST SPREADS EAST
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 3) IT
SHOULD ENHANCE DMGG WIND POTENTIAL VIA EVAPORATIVE MID LEVEL
COOLING.

LOW LEVEL FOCI FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABUNDANT THIS AFTERNOON...
WHICH INCLUDE: 1) A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE NW PIEDMONT STRATUS. 2) A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SOUTHERN COLD
FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. 3) THE
PRIMARY... MORE NORTHERN COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT OVER THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY. 4) THE SEA BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND... EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
INVOF THE SAID LOW LEVEL FOCI TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... AS THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT THE PRIMARY TROUGH ALOFT AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR... WHILE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL... IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... AND THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WELL ORGANIZED
MULTI-CELL STORM CLUSTERS AND LINE (SOME BOWING) SEGMENTS. THE
PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD ACCORDINGLY BE DMGG STRAIGHT LINE WIND...
OWING TO STRONG INSOLATION-DRIVEN STEEP (7.5 TO 9 C.KM) LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND RESULTANT
DCAPE. HOWEVER... THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY -- CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG FROM NW TO SE -- AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING FZ LEVELS INTO THE 11.5 TO 12.5 THSD FT RANGE...
ALSO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

EXPECT FULL SUN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS-INDICATED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE... GIVEN ADEQUATE SUNSHINE
ASIDE FROM THE LINGERING CIRRUS AND AN INCREASING CU FIELD THIS
AFTERNOON... AND AFTER CONTINUED STRATUS MIX OUT OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

REST OF TONIGHT: THE THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE BETWEEN
20-23Z WEST AND 01-03Z EAST... IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER INTO THE 5-10 THSD FT RANGE
TONIGHT... AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT. WEAK COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION-DRIVEN LOW
TEMPERATURES 59 TO 66 NW TO SE.  -MWS

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT -- WHICH STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES... MID MS VALLEY... AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON --
ATTENDING A TRAILING SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE SAME GENERAL
GEOGRAPHIC REGION... IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE TN
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS... LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE TOO LOW (SFC TD/S IN THE 50S) OWING TO BOTH
HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DRY ADVECTION IN GENERALLY WNW LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEHIND TONIGHT/S COLD FRONT... TO SUPPORT ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION. WHILE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD ACCORDINGLY BE SOMEWHAT
NOTICEABLY LOWER... PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT
CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S UNDER PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  -MWS

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
INITIALLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON
SAT NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL BY SUN NIGHT AS
A DEEP UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A
WEAK FRONT/SFC TROUGH (ASSOC/W THIS UPPER LOW) IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTH/SW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY EARLY SUN
AFTERNOON...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH/SE-WARD THROUGH THE AREA AS A
BACKDOOR FRONT SUN NIGHT IN ASSOC/W 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH FCST
SOUNDINGS PROG THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TO BE DRIER (PWAT
VALUES 1.25) THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY STILL
SHOW SOME AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE FCST
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE UNREALISTICALLY SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S...WHEN MID TO UPPER 50S IS MORE LIKELY. AS A RESULT...THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SUN MAY BE RATHER MARGINAL. AS A
RESULT...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
STORM ALONG/EAST OF HWY 1 ON THE MORE FAVORABLE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SUN AFTERNOON. WITH FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW...AN ISOLD SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT...HOWEVER...THIS WILL ENTIRELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
ULTIMATELY IS AVAILABLE. EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S...AND LOWER 60S MON MORNING. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM FRIDAY...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL NC. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL NC TO BEGIN WARMING AND
MOISTENING. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER
80S ON MON...AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER 90S ON TUE. W/REGARD TO
PRECIP CHANCES...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUE...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME CHANCES APPEAR
LOW GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY PWAT VALUES AND LIFT CONFINED PRIMARILY TO
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF A PIEDMONT TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE MID/LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING BETTER FOR RAIN BASED
ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DROPPING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
OH VALLEY....WITH A SFC FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL NC FROM THE N/NW
WED NIGHT AND STALLING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA ON THU/FRI. AT THIS
TIME WILL SHOW POPS NEAR NORMAL (30%) ON WED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
POPS IN THE 40% RANGE ON THU/FRI IN ASSOC/W THE STALLED FRONT (DUE
TO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THAT TIME
RANGE).  HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ON WED...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON THU/FRI IN ASSOC/W THE STALLED FRONT... MORE
CLOUD COVER...AND A HIGHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM FRIDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON... AND EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY ENE/WRD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A POTENT TROUGH/DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS... THESE
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL POSE PRIMARILY A STRONG GUSTY WIND THREAT --
LIKELY FROM THE WSW -- AS NEW STORMS FORM ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
RAIN COOLED AIR (OUTFLOW) AND EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING WIND-PRODUCING
LINE SEGMENTS. SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST/MOST NEWLY FORMED
STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A HAZARD TO AVIATION INTERESTS. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE BETWEEN 20-23Z WEST AND 01-03Z EAST... IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER INTO
THE 5-10 THSD FT RANGE TONIGHT... AS DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT. GENERALLY SW WINDS
5-10 KTS (SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE MID TEEN
KTS) AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON... WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND EVENTUALLY NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT... AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND TONIGHT... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT... WHICH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON... MAINLY FROM RDU AND RWI SOUTHWARD... DRY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW AND RESULTANT
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN MORNING MVFR/IFR
FOG/STRATUS MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. -MWS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STRICKLER
NEAR TERM...STRICKLER
SHORT TERM...STRICKLER/VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...STRICKLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
304 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 10 PM THIS
EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
556 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

NCZ042-078-292245-
JOHNSTON-WAYNE-
556 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS JOHNSTON AND WAYNE COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 556 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES
SOUTH OF PINE LEVEL...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PRINCETON...
NAHUNTA...PIKEVILLE...FREMONT.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN... SMALL HAIL... AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF BRINGING DOWN LARGE TREE LIMBS.
LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE
AND AWNINGS COULD BE TOSSED AROUND.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
608 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BETHEL HILL       36.49N 78.90W
05/29/2009                   PERSON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            SPOTTER REPORTED A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ON BOWMANTOWN
            ROAD. TREES WERE A COUPLE INCHES IN DIAMETER. OTHER SMALL
            LIMBS DOWN.

&&

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
609 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BETHEL HILL       36.49N 78.90W
05/29/2009                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN ON BOWMANTOWN
            ROAD. TREES WERE A COUPLE INCHES IN DIAMETER. OTHER SMALL
            LIMBS DOWN.

&&

ELLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
635 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             ALTAMAHAW               36.18N 79.51W
05/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JFB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
637 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 PM     HAIL             ESE ROSEBORO            34.95N 78.51W
05/29/2009  E0.75 INCH       SAMPSON            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROSEBORO FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL ON
            EAST PLEASANT STREET IN ROSEBORO.

&&

ELLIS

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