Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
340 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CAUSE SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS
HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE LIFTED INDICES IN THE MINUS 4 THROUGH MINUS
6 OVER ALL BUT THE EXTREME NW PIEDMONT. SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED
NORTH OF THE TRIAD AS DEWPOINTS THERE HAVE JUMPED INTO THE MID 60S
AND WINDS VEERED TO A SLY DIRECTION. APPROACH OF MCV CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN GA WILL INCREASE THE MID LEVEL BULK SHEAR BY 20-21Z ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENT RANDOM NATURE OF CELLS SHOULD BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SHORTLY OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WITH
APPROACH OF MCV. TORNADIC THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 64...MORE SO NEAR THE VA BORDER AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TRIAD.

NEAR TERM MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONCERNING PLACEMENT/TIMING
OF OTHER MCV APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-SW. MODELS TOO FAR NORTH WITH
ACTIVITY NOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. STILL...APPEARS THAT
LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL INCREASE AFTER 00Z. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT OVERNIGHT SURFACE BASED CAPES PROGGED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 500-1000J/KG OVER THE PIEDMONT. MAY SEE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
RECOVER AFTER 06Z TO 35-40KTS. THUS...MAY SEE CONVECTION WANE/WEAKEN
AFTER 00Z...THEN REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE
WEST AND PROGRESS EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SINCE SOME PARAMETERS
FAVOR SEVERE AND OTHERS RATHER WEAK...NOT ANTICIPATING A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AFTER 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...

EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 TO EXIT REGION AFTER
15Z. APPEARS THAT AIR MASS WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER AND SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION AFTER 19Z OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NW.
EXPECT CLOUDS EARLY THU TO SCATTERED OUT BY LATE MORNING...ENABLING
TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR 80/LOWER 80S BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE...WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE FEW IN NUMBER
AND CONSISTENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WEDNESDAY...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL TAKE THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH IT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S.

THE BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
TAKE OVER IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SURFACE WAVES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PWAT VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 60S... COOLING TO THE 50S FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S WILL DROP TO THE 70S BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1158 AM WEDNESDAY...

AREA OF LIFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT/IMPROVE AS INSOLATION HEATS AIRMASS.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR/VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z WITH BASES
VARYING BETWEEN 2500-4000FT. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL INITIALLY
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING SINCE 10 AM.
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AFTER 21Z. MAY
SEE CONVECTION WANE A BIT BY 00Z BUT EXPECTED TO REINVIGORATE  AFTER
03Z AS SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES NEAR OUR AREA.
CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO VARY WIDELY ACROSS REGION AFTER 00Z WITH
BASES AT OR ABOVE 3000FT IN THE SE AROUND KFAY AND KRWI TO NEAR OR
BELOW 1000FT AT KINT AND KGSO.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING. CONVECTION EXPECTED DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING BUT
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN AS AIRMASS
BECOMES UNSTABLE DUE TO HEATING.

TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING WITH
POCKETS OF MVFR FOG ANTICIPATED.

UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS IN OUR VICINITY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...RHJ
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
222 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-070930-
WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
222 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR THAT COVERS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE THREAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
NEAR OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WEST AND NORTH OF RALEIGH INCLUDING THE
TRIAD REGION. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE GREATEST BETWEEN 9 PM AND 6 AM.

RESIDENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO MAINTAIN
AWARENESS OF LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND OR
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACT THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT. SPOTTERS
SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-084-070930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-
222 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 256 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR THAT COVERS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THE WIND FIELD
ALOFT IS SUCH THAT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE THREAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES
NEAR OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST WEST AND NORTH OF RALEIGH INCLUDING THE
TRIAD REGION. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE GREATEST BETWEEN 9 PM AND 6 AM.

RESIDENTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE ADVISED TO MAINTAIN
AWARENESS OF LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND OR
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IMPACT THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ088-089-062045-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
419 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS WESTERN SAMPSON AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ROSEBORO...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROSEBORO...
SALEMBURG...AND AREAS ALONG ROUTE 242 IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND WESTERN SAMPSON COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
425 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             PRINCETON               35.47N 78.16W
05/06/2009  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSTON           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT HWY 70 AND
            BRASWELL RD

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
426 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ009-010-062100-
VANCE-WARREN-
426 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND VANCE COUNTIES
THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

AT 426 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
AFTON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES EAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...DREWRY...WARRENTON...
NORLINA...WISE...AND...MACON.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
428 PM EDT WED MAY 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE PINETOPS          35.84N 77.62W
05/06/2009                   EDGECOMBE          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            EDGECOMBE COUNTY 911 REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            NEAR NC 1202, SOUTHWEST OF TARBORO.

&&

TDH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
507 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ038-039-062130-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
507 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS DAVIDSON AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 506 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
GORDONTOWN...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 64 AND HIGHWAY 311 IN WESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

VINCENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
543 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ021-038-062230-
DAVIDSON-FORSYTH-
543 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY APPROACH DAVIDSON AND FORSYTH COUNTIES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY 615 PM...

AT 539 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 23
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEMMONS...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOCKSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...CLEMMONS...ARCADIA...MIDWAY...AND WINSTON-SALEM.

A TORNADO WARNING FOR DAVIE AND IREDELL COUNTIES IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT FOR THIS STORM. IF STRONG ROTATION IN THIS STORM CONTINUES
THROUGH 600 PM...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR DAVIDSON AND
FORSYTH COUNTIES.

VINCENT