Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
PUSH INTO CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST...WITH A FAIRLY UNIFORM SURFACE FLOW AND NO REAL TROUGH
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO MOVE ALONG THE THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS..EXTENDING BACK INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MISSISSIPPI.  THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
ALONG AN AXIS OF H85 TO H7 CONVERGENCE...AND BEING SUPPORTED BY AN
H25 JET THAT EXTENDS DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS.  A
COUPLE VORT MAXES WERE NOTED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THESE APPEAR THE BE SHEARING OUT
A BIT....AND WE MAY BE LEFT WITH JUST AN ELONGATED SHEAR AXIS.

FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND
TIMING OF UPPER FORCING...AND WHETHER THESE WILL COINCIDE ENOUGH FOR
AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY.  UPPER SUPPORT STILL LOOKS TO
ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER JET (WHICH WAS ANALYZED A
BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN THIS MORNINGS RAOB ANALYSIS) SHIFTS
EASTWARD. UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH OUT THE
DAY...BUT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS...AND EVEN A WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR LATER.  THUS...IT
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE FORM
OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK H85 TROUGH.  ANOTHER FACTOR THAT
MAY HELP INITIATION IS A POTENTIAL DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARY...AS CLOUD COVER IS RATHER EXTENSIVE FROM CHARLOTTE TO THE
TRIAD AND POINTS WEST.  MLCAPES UNDER STRONG INSOLATION TO THE EAST
COULD REACH 2000 J/KG...BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK WEAK WITH PROFILES NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC AND THE CLOSEST MID LEVEL DRY AIR BACK TO THE WEST
OF NASHVILLE.

FROM ALL OF THIS...NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS....BUT EXPECT A
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...IN THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME...AS UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES...AND
THEN SPREAD EASTWARD FEEDING OFF REMAINING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING.  UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES OF 25-30 KT STILL SUPPORTS SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.  THE
FREEZING LEVEL IN THE KGSO RAOB THIS MORNING AT WELL ABOVE 14K
FT...AND THE WETBULB ZERO LEVEL WAS ABOVE 13KT FT...SO HAIL
POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.

HIGHS IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WILL LOWER COUPLE DEGREES....STILL
85-91 FROM NW TO SE.  -SMITH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC CENTERED EAST OF BERMUDA...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO FL. 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
TN/KY. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED SW-NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.
ALOFT...00Z RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS CENTERED
ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A 100-125 KT H25 JET WAS LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER THE OH
VALLEY. 06Z WV IMAGERY AND RUC DATA SHOWED A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER CENTRAL TN/KY...AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS NOTED IN VICINITY OF THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

OVERVIEW/TEMPS:
AS THE SHEAR AXIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST PROGRESSES
EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY...THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TN/KY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE OH/WV/KY BORDER AREA BY 12Z
THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z TONIGHT.
WITH RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC AND A SFC LOW
TRACKING JUST NW AND N OF CENTRAL NC...AN ATYPICALLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM
SHOW A 30-35 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH 25-30 KT FLOW AS LOW AS 925 MB. AS A RESULT...ONCE
MIXING BEGINS IN EARNEST...WE SHOULD SEE A SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WIND
OF 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS FREQUENTLY IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT MUGGY IN
THE 70-75F RANGE DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL TN/KY IS PROGGED TO LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST INTO PA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVE...AND THAT FEATURE WILL NOT AFFECT CENTRAL NC. THE SHEAR AXIS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OH VALLEY ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON CENTRAL NC THIS AFT INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ASSOC ENERGY PROGGED TO BE OVER THE OH VALLEY...NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SHOW OUR BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME...OR ROUGHLY
FROM MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE GFS/NAM SEEM
TO BE KEYING PRIMARILY ON THE APPROACH OF THE 925-850 MB TROUGH AXIS
INTO THE AREA...WHEN WE WILL HAVE THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
THE 21-06Z TIME FRAME IS ALSO WHEN WE SHOULD HAVE THE BEST UPPER
FORCING...PRIMARILY IN ASSOC/W AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG JET ENTRANCE
REGION THAT WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFT/EVE...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY A
POTENTIAL CANDIDATE. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES ONCE AGAIN IN
THE 2 RANGE...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES PRIMARILY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...POTENTIALLY AS HIGH
AS 2000 J/KG. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION FROM 21Z
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHEN THE BETTER LOWER AND UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ARRIVE...AND WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS IN THAT
PERIOD...WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BEFORE-HAND
DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS. SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER POPS DOWN FROM NW-SE...WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNRISE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

SEVERE THREAT:
THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT SO CLEAR CUT TODAY CONSIDERING THAT THE
BEST LOWER/UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENTERING THE AREA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...PRIMARILY AFTER PEAK HEATING. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NO MORE THAN 35-40 KT FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
COLUMN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFT/EVE...INDICATING THAT DESPITE THE
UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD BE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE AT 20-30 KT DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL
MIXING AND RELATIVELY BREEZY SFC WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 15 KT.
20-30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD STILL SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH WATER
LOADING POTENTIAL. DESPITE A SLIGHT DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND THE BEST FORCING...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY
WELL CONTINUE PAST SUNSET...PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OR BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPS BEFORE SUNSET IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS
IN ASSOC/W THE 925-850 MB TROUGH ENTERING THE AREA. GIVEN EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL ORGANIZATION...
AND THAT THERE IS UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES
WILL LIKELY BE MUCH FURTHER NORTH/NE IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
ENGLAND WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL BE ENHANCED AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. -VINCENT

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS CENTRAL NC SATURDAY. ALOFT... THE SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE... AND THE BASE STILL WEST OF
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS MOIST FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR DISTURBANCES
ALOFT... COMBINED WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY... WILL PROVIDE THE
LIFT AND FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING MAXIMUM HEATING.

IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE SANDHILLS AND
COASTAL PLAIN...WHERE THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE
POSITION OF WHERE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. HOWEVER...
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MODEL DEPICTION OF LOCATION ENOUGH THAT WE
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POP ALL AREAS. THE HIGHEST POP (50) FROM NEAR
CHARLOTTE NORTHEAST TO RALEIGH TO ROANOKE RAPIDS... AND POINTS SOUTH
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE LOWEST POP (30)
WILL BE PLACED IN THE NW PIEDMONT. LOWS 68-74. HIGHS 86-92.

FOR SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH
THE REGION AGAIN DURING THE MAXIMUM HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OVER THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THE
CHANCE WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NC AS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
BACKS INTO THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONTINUE THE
50 POP AND MAY HAVE TO GO HIGHER IN LATER FORECASTS. LOWS 68-74.
HIGHS 86-92.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THAT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE
PAST WEEK (WITH TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST PROVIDING A DEEP SW FLOW
OF MOISTURE)... WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST NEXT WEEK. BY MID
WEEK... THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSSIBLY BECOMES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
THIS FAVORS THE EASTERN HALF OF NC FOR THE BEST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. HOWEVER... DISTURBANCES IN THE W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE IF THE MEAN TROUGH DOES ADVANCE EAST AS
ADVERTISED. EVEN THOUGH THE DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THIS WEEK... IT MAY BE JUST AS... OR MORE INTENSE DUE
TO SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVELS... POTENTIALLY LARGER LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES... AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING.

THEREFORE...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH SHOWS A
GRADUAL DIP IN THE POP FROM 50 TO 30 BETWEEN DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...BUT
EMPHASIS SHOULD BE PLACED ON THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH BASED ON
IMPORTANCE.

SCATTERED DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...MAXIMIZED DURING
PEAK HEATING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A PERSISTENT PIEDMONT TROUGH...
THE SANDHILLS/MOUNTAINS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES... AND SEA
BREEZE...WILL PROVIDE A DAILY LOW LEVEL FOCUS AS WELL. LOWS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL (67 NW-N TO 73 SE).
HIGHS 86 NW TO 91 OR 92 SANDHILLS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...

SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
THIS AFTERNOON.   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AND DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...AFFECTING ANY TERMINAL ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY 20-21Z.  KRDU
WILL BE LIKELY BE THE FIRST OF THE TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE
TSRA...WITH STORMS ALREADY NEARING THE AIRPORT.  IN ADDITION TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WIND GUSTS OF
20-25KT....SOMETIMES NEAR 30KT...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL RIGHT AROUND
00Z.  EXPECT THE GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR WEAK
AFTER SUNSET...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH A
COLD FRONT CROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING....WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR TO MVFR.  -SMITH

LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...
WITH A CONTINUATION OF HUMID CONDITIONS THAT WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRE-DAWN STRATUS AND FOG...PARTICULARLY AT EASTERN
TERMINALS AND/OR WHERE RAIN OCCURS...AND PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...VINCENT/SMITH
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...BADGETT
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-011900-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
256 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3PM AND
9PM THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER AS SOON AS IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

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