Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
211 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE AREA WILL THEN LANGUISH UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH LATE WEEK...PINNED BETWEEN A TROF OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES AND A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL PRODUCE TYPICAL SUMMER...WARM AND HUMID...CONDITIONS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM MONDAY...

INSTABILITY WILL BE REMAIN HIGH THIS EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES EAST OF THE SURFACE TROF. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL APPROACH 2K JOULES AND 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 30-35 M/S...SUPPORTIVE OF BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION THAN
SUNDAY. UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IS BETTER ALIGNED AS
WELL...TAKING THE FORM OF UPPER SPEED DIFFLUENCE AND AN
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAXIMA LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWFA. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...GRADUATED TOWARDS HIGHER VALUES IN THE EAST.

OVERNIGHT: CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WILL... HOWEVER RETAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A MORE
SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE ALOFT...LOWS 68 TO 73 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 PM MONDAY...

THE PERSISTENT WARM (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE MUCH REDUCED AS
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE MORE SUPPRESSIVE THAN SUPPORTIVE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
LOW CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER NUMBERS IN THE EAST.

A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL BE REACHING THE MOUNTAINS LATE...AND
AT THIS POINT WILL ONLY KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
OVERNIGHT. MINS WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST DAYS...70-74. -MLM

AFTER A POSSIBLE REPRIEVE IN CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SUPPORT ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH EAST INTO THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES DEPICTED BY THE BUFR MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...FEATURING PWATS OF 2.0 TO 2.1 ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LATEST 12Z/27 GFS IS OF LITTLE HELP RIGHT NOW...TAINTED BY
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND A RESULTANT ERRONEOUS CLOSED SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EAST ACROSS EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...WHILE THE
WEAKER AND MORE REALISTIC NAM IMPLIES MORE AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE
VIRGINIAS AND CAROLINAS...WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA.
SURPRISINGLY...PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MODEL ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE LIKELIHOOD
OF A ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AT 20
PERCENT OR LESS. THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE GOOD CHANCE
RANGES...AROUND 50 PERCENT. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80 ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 69 TO 74. -CBL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM MONDAY...

...TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR CENTRAL NC...

A BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL US/MS
VALLEY... AS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL/BERMUDA RIDGE RETROGRADES OVER
THE SERN US. THE RESULTANT DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL KEEP A HUMID
AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRAVERSING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG THE LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 87 TO 93...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS OF 69 TO 74.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...

STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH UPPER SUPPORT FROM A SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR AXIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TAF INITIAL ISSUANCE INTO THE
EVENING...TAPERING OFF 02-04Z. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE VARIOUS STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...WHICH
COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS IN PROXIMITY TO STORMS. VISIBLITIES COULD BE
BRIEFLY IFR IN HEAVY RAIN...BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR...PERHAPS VERY BRIEFLY MIFR DIRECTLY UNDER CONVECTION. SKIES
WILL SCATTER OUT AFTER LOSS OF INSOLATION...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE EAST (RDU/RWI/FAY) OVERNIGHT. IFR FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PREDAWN (09-12Z) AT TAF SITES WHICH
RECEIVE RAINFALL.

CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH LESS FOCUSED AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AFTER ANY
LINGERING MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

A NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW = WARM AND MOIST.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR...EXCEPT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
CONVECTION AND PATCHY MVFR EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...MLM/CBL
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
700 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-282300-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
700 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY IN AREAS OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
557 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW CLINTON            35.04N 78.38W
07/27/2009  E62.00 MPH       SAMPSON            NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

ORROCK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
626 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

NCZ022-023-038-039-272330-
ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-GUILFORD-RANDOLPH-
626 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS GUILFORD...ALAMANCE...
DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

AT 624 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAKE TOWNSEND... JUST NORTH OF GREENSBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE DEVELOPING BACK SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THOMASVILLE.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE GREENSBORO...
MCLEANSVILLE... MONTICELLO... GIBSONVILLE... ALTAMAHAW... ELON
COLLEGE... AND GLEN RAVEN.

GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH... HAIL OF HALF INCH IN DIAMETER... AND
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
702 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

NCZ009-010-280000-
VANCE-WARREN-
702 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS WARREN AND VANCE COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM EDT...

AT 701 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DABNEY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HENDERSON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE DABNEY...
BULLOCKSVILLE... AND MIDDLEBURG.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH... SMALL HAIL AROUND A HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER... AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM. ALSO... TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN A HALF HOUR.

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
728 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

NCZ022>024-038>040-073>075-083-084-280030-
ALAMANCE-ANSON-CHATHAM-DAVIDSON-GUILFORD-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-ORANGE-
RANDOLPH-RICHMOND-STANLY-
728 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT THROUGH 900 PM...

AT 726 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BURLINGTON TO STANFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BURLINGTON TO 15 MILES NORTH OF MONROE...MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HAW RIVER... ULAH...
MEBANE... RAMSEUR... STALEY... ASHEBORO... ALBEMARLE... AND SNOW
CAMP.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH... SMALL HAIL... AND DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO LIKELY... WITH RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH IN JUST 30 MINUTES.
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS... GO INDOORS TO A SAFE
BUILDING... AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

GIH