Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL CONVERGE OVER NORTH CAROLINA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

17Z SPC MESOANALYSIS IS ALREADY SHOWING MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500
J/JG ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST ZONES HAS REALLY BLOSSOMED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST
BEGINNING TO INITIATE. FURTHER WEST...STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH THAT ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST. MEANWHILE...THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO MARYLAND.

INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS A
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER MECHANISM REMAINS LACKING. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A WEAK LEE TROUGH THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE. POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HINGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION THAT IS JUST NOW BEGINNING
TO FIRE. AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES DOWN TO NEAR HWY 1. WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR NOW. THESE VALUES COULD BE
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO THE ISSUANCE OF THE FORECAST BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS A PALTRY 15 KT...SO STORMS WILL BE PULSE IN
NATURE. WITH THAT SAID...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM...AND DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.
THEREFORE...ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS.

AS WE GO FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT... CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH WILL GRADUALLY INCH CLOSER TO THE AREA...BECOMING LOCATED NEAR
THE NC/VA TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS
VERY MILD AND HUMID IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES EAST OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HANGING THE FRONT UP OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN CWA AS AT LEAST ONE SFC LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS MS/AL. POPS ARE TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
THE BEST FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL OBVIOUSLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT AND NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE MAXIMED ALONG THE FRONT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MODELS
ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND
SANDHILLS. IT DOES NOT HELP THAT THE GFS IS A CONVECTIVE MESS ON
THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST 3 DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES NOTED...WHICH
IN TURN CREATES SURROUNDING AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE. PREFER TO LEAN
TOWARD THE MORE SENSIBLE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH DOES DEPICT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT WHERE MLCAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/JG APPEAR ATTAINABLE.
WITH THIS SOLUTION IN MIND...WILL MAINTAIN 70 POPS NORTH AND 60S IN
THE SOUTH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY INCREASES TO 20-25 KT TOMORROW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DECREASE TO LESS THAN 6 C/KM. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL. WHILE ANY STORM THAT GOES UP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ROTATION...THE
OVERALL WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AFOREMENTIONED
NEGATIVE SEVERE PARAMETERS...WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY TORNADIC
STORMS. HIGHS SHOULD TEMPERED BY THE FRONT TO THE NORTH AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS LOW TO MID 80S.

RAINFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO TREK EAST WHILE A SFC LOW ORGANIZES AND MOVES
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA BY 12Z FRIDAY. SFC-850 MB CONVERGENCE MAXIMIZES
OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE AREA WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OCCURS. FURTHER EAST IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN...DEEP LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEED WILL RAISE PWATS TO
NEARLY 1.9 INCHES. WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT A SOLID COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO OCCUR IN
THIS AREA AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS LOW 70S NW TO UPPER 70S SE. THESE ARE
BUMPED UP A LITTLE IN THE NW COMPARED TO EARLIER FORECASTS AS THE
SIGNAL FOR A DAMMING SETUP HAS BECOME WEAKER WITH ONLY A 1016 MB
TRYING TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA ON
FRIDAY...GRADUALLY PULLING THE FRONT FURTHER EAST AS THE LOW PULLS
OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED
ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE SFC LOW WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.

LOOK FOR A LULL IN PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE
FRONT WASHES OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE AIRMASS
QUICKLY MODIFIES ON SATURDAY...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. MEANWHILE...THE BAGGY MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED RIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...GIVING WAY TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REBOUND
INTO THE LOW 1400S...SUPPORTING MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ONWARD WILL MAINLY BE
DOMINATED BY SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE
FROM EAST.  BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A WEAK BAGGY CUTOFF H5 LOW OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT THIS STAYS SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  INSTEAD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE ATLANTIC..EXTENDING
WESTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS.  A WARM..MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
1410-1420M RANGE BY TUESDAY.  DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
REGIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND POSSIBLE SEABREEZE FORCED AREAS. THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST PUSHES A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO INCH ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
ALONG THE EASTERN RIDGES OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL POTENTIALLY EFFECT
TERMINALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF NC INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE STORMS MAKES
TIMING DIFFICULT.  A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS... BUT MOST STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
OTHERWISE...A SOUTHERLY 10KT WIND WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR A FEW HOURS OF STRATUS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS NEAR KFAY.  A
SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT HALF OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH BASED CU FIELD AND VFR CONDITIONS.  THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER...AND THE
CHANCE OF TSTMS WILL ACCORDINGLY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE NOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF NC.

LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FROM SW TO NE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL EXTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS AND
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY... AND
REMAIN VFR THROUGH SUNDAY... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BLAES
NEAR TERM...JFB
SHORT TERM...JFB
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1138 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-041545-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1138 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS VIRGINIA WILL APPROACH NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS NEAR AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
VIRGINIA BORDER AFTER 6PM. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO POSSIBLE IN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

BLAES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             W ALTAMAHAW             36.18N 79.51W
06/03/2009  M1.00 INCH       ALAMANCE           NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS REPORTED AT THE
            ALTAMAHAW-OSSIPEE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

&&

BLAES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
324 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

NCZ007-008-032015-
GRANVILLE-PERSON-
324 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS GRANVILLE AND PERSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ROXBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ROXBORO...BETHEL
HILL.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

DONT WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE FIRST LIGHTNING FLASH BEFORE HEADING TO
SAFETY. INSTEAD...MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES
OR THE FIRST SOUND OF THUNDER. MAKE SURE THAT LIGHTNING IS WELL AWAY
FROM YOUR LOCATION BEFORE RESUMING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.

WSS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
327 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

NCZ008-032030-
GRANVILLE-
327 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 327 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CREEDMOOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE... AREAS EAST OF
BUTNER AND STEM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

KEEP A CLOSE WATCH TO THE SKY IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS. DONT WAIT UNTIL
RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE SHELTER. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING HAS BEEN KNOWN TO
STRIKE UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE THUNDERSTORM CLOUD. GO TO YOUR CAR OR
A BUILDING AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM OR WHEN THUNDER IS HEARD.

WSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             5 ENE ROXBORO           36.44N 78.90W
06/03/2009  E0.75 INCH       PERSON             NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC ON VIRGILINA RD.

&&

ELLIS

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