Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
720 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...COMMENCING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...

VORT MAX MOVING NE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-700MB RESPONSIBLE FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN AT 07Z. RADAR PAINTS A
WORST CASE SCENARIO AS SUB CLOUD LAYER DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
SPREADS 6-10 DEGREES IN THE EAST...AND NEARLY 20 DEGREES IN THE
WEST. THUS...MOST RAIN DEPICTED ON RADAR NOT REACHING THE GROUND DUE
TO EVAPORATION.  VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ZIP TO THE NE. HOWEVER
NEXT VORT MAX IN THE FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO ROUND BASE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-20Z WED ACROSS OUR AREA. MOISTURE REMAINS
CONFINED IN THE LAYER BETWEEN 5000-10000FT BUT SUFFICIENT LIFT
SUPPLIED BY PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COOL POOL
ALOFT (WITH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES 7-7.75DEG C/KM) STILL WARRANTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF CENTRAL NC. BEST LIFT/MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE
SOUTH SO HAVE OMITTED MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF A
GOLDSBORO-SOUTHERN PINES TO ALBEMARLE LINE.

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. HEATING OF AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AVERAGE
35-40KTS THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALLOWING SOME REDUCTION DUE TO FRICTION
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 28-33KTS RANGE. THESE WINDS JUST BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE FOR NOW. DAY CREW
WILL NEED TO ASSESS THE SITUATION VIA AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS.

LEANED MAX TEMPS TODAY TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE AS
CONDITIONS TODAY APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DIABATIC WARMING IN WESTERLY
FLOW. MODEL THICKNESSES WITH DIABATIC ADJUSTMENT SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM SW. THIS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND
THAT WILL SHIFT INTO OVERDRIVE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. APPEARS
TO BE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM DIABATIC WARMING ON THU. SO AGAIN
LEANED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE (LOWER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE
MID 70S ELSEWHERE). WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BEFORE SUNSET BUT REMAIN
3-7KTS OVERNIGHT. MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO KEEP WINDS UP TOO LONG
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW (VERSUS NW).
THUS WENT WITH MINS TONIGHT NEAR OR A SHADE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. IF
WINDS REMAIN 3-6KTS...MIN TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3 DEGREES WARMER.
-WSS

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.... WHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SHIFT OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THE RESPECT TO DEWPOINTS
INCREASING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE NAM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA... AND THUS...SUBSEQUENTLY THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY (1500 J/KG JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA) ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW... THANKS TO THE BUILDING RIDGE... EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS TO REMAIN OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN PIEDMONT
LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE NW PIEDMONT.
EXPECT ANY TERRAIN-INITIATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY LOOK TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE SOUTH AND WEST TO THE MID
40S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES
APPROACHING 1400 METERS AND THE H7 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH... EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST... AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA DRY...
AS MID LEVEL TEMP WARM (REDUCING ANY INSTABILITY)... AND RELATIVELY
HOT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE THE
WARMEST DAYS... AS THE H7 ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVERHEAD. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF 1400
METERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THUS... WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
HIGH ABOVE GUIDANCE. MID TO UPPER 80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... WITH
LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WELL. EXPECT LOWS
TO GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 720 AM WEDNESDAY...

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 14Z-16Z IN RESPONSE TO HEATING OF THE
AIRMASS WHICH WILL MIX STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35
MPH PROBABLE BETWEEN 15Z-21Z. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIND DIRECTION WILL MAINLY BE 270-290 DEGREES WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME
CROSSWIND ISSUES AT NE-SW ORIENTATED RUNWAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY... PROVIDING NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
HOWEVER... THANKS TO THE DEEP DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER... DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VISBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD BE VFR TODAY... GENERALLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 9 KFT.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EXITS THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BY SUNSET AS AIR
MASS STABILIZES.

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION. MAY SEE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF
MVFR FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS/BSD
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS/BSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-230930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
418 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE LIKELY. THIS TYPE OF WIND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING A FEW
LARGE TREE BRANCHES AND TOSS AROUND UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS SUCH
AS TRASH CANS. OPERATORS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE EXTRA CAUTION AS DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
853 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-222145-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...HENDERSON...
WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...
NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...ASHEBORO...PITTSBORO...
RALEIGH...SMITHFIELD...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...
SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...
ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON
853 AM EDT WED APR 22 2009

...INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...

BLUSTERY WEST WINDS... SUSTAINED AT SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH... WILL
GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH TODAY. IN ADDITION... RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 28 PERCENT. WITH THESE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS... FINE FUELS SUCH AS GRASSES... PINE NEEDLES...
AND TWIGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT... PRODUCING AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.

RESIDENTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION
WHEN HANDLING ANY POTENTIAL IGNITION SOURCE... INCLUDING MATCHES
AND CIGARETTES. IMPROPERLY DISCARDED SMOKING MATERIALS ARE A
MAJOR CAUSE OF WILDFIRES. ANY DRY GRASSES AND TREE LITTER THAT
IGNITE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RAPIDLY SPREAD.

GIH