Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 051602
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1102 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

NCC067-051700-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090605T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORSYTH NC-
1102 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EDT FOR
FORSYTH COUNTY...

AT 1159 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER FORSYTH COUNTY. THE AREA WAS 
PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PART OF THE COUNTY...
NEAR INTERSTATE 40.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KERNERSVILLE 
AND WINSTON-SALEM.

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE DAY OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED...ON 
TOP OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO. A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH 2 PM...TAKING 
THE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH IT. FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...
AND SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING OR LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. THOSE LIVING NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS
SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK 
ACTION. DRIVERS SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY WATER COVERED 
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

&&

LAT...LON 3610 8050 3612 8045 3622 8045 3626 8046
      3626 8045 3625 8003 3601 8004 3603 8018
      3599 8033 3597 8039 3604 8047 3604 8050
      3606 8051

$$

DJF

000 
WGUS72 KRAH 051652
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1252 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

NCC067-051656-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-090605T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORSYTH NC-
1252 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FORSYTH COUNTY...

RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT HAD NO 
REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES OR SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FLOODING. THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE CANCELED BUT PERSONS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN 
AWAY FROM ANY STREAM OR CREEK RUNNING HIGH OR FLOWING FAST.  DRIVERS 
SHOULD STILL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ANY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

LAT...LON 3610 8050 3612 8045 3622 8045 3626 8046
      3626 8045 3625 8003 3601 8004 3603 8018
      3599 8033 3597 8039 3604 8047 3604 8050
      3606 8051

$$

TDH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
641 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER GEORGIA WILL MOVE NE ALONG A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES...

SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA AT 2 AM MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEST OF CHARLOTTE AROUND SUNRISE
AND TURN A BIT MORE EAST... TO BE NORTHEAST OF RALEIGH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS SIMILARLY MOVING AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL HINGE ON TRAINING OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ECHOES. ROUGHLY ONE HALF TO ONE AND A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. CREEKS IN GUILFORD COUNTY RESPONDING BUT STILL A
COUPLE OF FEET OR MORE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND NEARING A CREST.

BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THIS LOW WHICH
WOULD MAKE THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST OF PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL THROUGH NOON. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
LESSENED SOUTHEAST OF THIS AREA... IT IS NOT ZERO AND WILL LEAVE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.  CREEK BASIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN TWO THIRDS INCH... BUT
SOME LOCALLY MUCH HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE BEFORE LATE MORNING.

LINGERING TROUGH TRAILING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL SLIP
EAST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS CUT OFF AND
DROP A WEAK 700 MILLIBAR LOW SOUTH TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD PLACE MUCH OF NORTH CAROLINA IN A LOW LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AREA... AND RAINFALL IF ANY AFTER DARK SHOULD BE NO MORE
THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST OF MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACCEPTED.
WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT... LOW LEVEL THICKNESS DROP TO
1380 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. LOW TEMPERATURES UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRIDAY...

SURFACE WINDS SHIFT TOWARD SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
RETURNING ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT RAIN CHANCE TO THE
SOUTH BEFORE SUNSET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED ONE AND A HALF
INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING... AND THE RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON A DISTINCT WARMING TREND MOVING FROM
LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...

EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM/MUGGY (NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
EARLY/MID JUNE) WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ON
TUE/WED...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE WEEK IN ASSOC/W
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE (PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST) MOVING
EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (INTO THE UPPER 80S)...WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL BY LATE WEEK...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS BY
LATE WEEK...IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRIDAY...

ADVERSE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS OF 10Z...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOC/W A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF CHARLOTTE...AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...NEAR THE I-85 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL NC.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE INT/GSO TAF SITES...BETWEEN
12-16Z. IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR VISBYS IN RAIN. BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE AT THE INT/GSO TAF SITES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE FRONT. SINCE IT IS JUNE AND THE MSLP GRADIENT ASSOC/W THE LOW IS
RATHER BROAD/WEAK...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE THIS MORNING.

ONCE THE SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL NC AS A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY...SO IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS
MAY BE SLOW TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SCATTERING OF CLOUDS EAST
OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW A 20-30KT SOUTHWEST WIND IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE..SO THERE MAY BE SOME
GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE FAY/RWI TAF SITES.

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS/VISBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A RESIDUAL
MOIST AIRMASS MAY PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NC...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. -VINCENT/SMITH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR NCZ007>010-021>026-
038>041-073>076-083-084.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT/SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1003 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-061200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-
MOORE-LEE-ANSON-RICHMOND-
1003 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER...INCLUDING FLOODING.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-077-078-085-086-088-089-061200-
HALIFAX-NASH-EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-HARNETT-WAYNE-SCOTLAND-HOKE-
CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1003 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD OCCUR.
THE OTHER PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DJF