Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
310 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK
AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

GOOD INSTABILITY EXISTS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WITH SPC MUCAPE
SHOWING VALUES AROUND 3000J/KG. WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -8C OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY...AND A
SHORTWAVE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1...AND
WEST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WITH AREAS CURRENT DRY OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT TO RECEIVE SOME ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNSET. ONCE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN 85KT 250MB JET SWEEPS EAST...SUBSIDENCE
INCREASES FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS A FEW CELLS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM PROVIDE FOR SUBSIDENCE
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN AGAIN
SLIGHTLY FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...IN
VICINITY OF 1.75 INCHES...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL TAKE
LONGER FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE BASED UPON THE GFS AND NAM
BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALTHOUGH THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS IN THE
FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT A SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE FAR EAST. FOR THE DAY...GOOD 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.75C/KM IN THE WEST AROUND 18Z TO 21Z SHOULD RESULT IN
DEVELOPMENT WEST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOVING IN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY IN THE MIDDLE
TOWARD U.S. 1. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND A MOIST AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE
NIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
U.S. 64 ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT...AS MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THE
NORTH ARE MORE STABLE THAN FARTHER SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH...BUT NOT
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE NAM...AND AS SUCH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
FORCING TO CONTINUE OR GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WITHIN
A DEGREE OR THREE OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SETTING IN ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DIURNAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SERIES OF
WEAK VORT MAXES IN THE ZONAL FLOW COULD HELP SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
AND TIMING OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES THIS FAR OUT IS DIFFICULT. A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED ACTIVITY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE FROM WED BUT EXPECT A FEW MORE
CLOUDS DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND EXPECTED CONVECTION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER TO MID 70S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM TUESDAY...

WEEKEND WILL REMAIN A BIT UNSETTLED BUT OVERALL ONLY EXPECT DIURNAL
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN. ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

THE 00Z ECMWF DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT WITH NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NOT FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS NOT TOO FAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY DURING THE PERIOD.
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW RELATIVELY ZONAL AT WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST... WILL KEEP MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES AT 85 TO 90... WITH
MORNING LOWS AT 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...
WITH MOST AREAS SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. AREAS
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE...SUCH AS TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI...COULD HAVE
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AFTER ANY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LIFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE TRIAD LATE IN THE
DAY...AND TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
KFAY. AGAIN...LOCAL MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE MOIST
AIR MASS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. UNTIL A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK...EXPECT AREAS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF STRATUS
AND FOG.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RTE
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...DJF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1006 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-101200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1006 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH ANY SLOW
MOVING STORM...MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SHOULD COME BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHILE A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...THE
GREATEST FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY TUNED AND REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THAT OCCURS.

DJF

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