Winter Weather Advisory 13, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
331 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

MAIN CONCERN IS MARGINAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF THE REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND INCREASING SNOW OVER
THE CONTDVD THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...AS OF 3AM...COOL FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
OF COLORADO. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER AZ AND
WAS BRINGING MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS TO THE REGION. A LEE TROUGH
SEPARATING DRY WSW SFC WINDS FROM MORE MOIST SE WINDS WAS LOCATED
JUST INSIDE W KS. A SFC LOW...AS DEFINED BY WINDS...WAS LOCATED OVER
THE CO/NE/KS BORDER.

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN IS MARGINAL FIRE WX ISSUES. BASED ON TRENDS IN
GUIDANCE...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A COS TO LHX TO S OF LAA LINE
BY 18Z AND MOVE A BIT FARTHER WEST BY 21Z. W OF THE BOUNDARY...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR AREAS W OF THIS
BOUNDARY...MAINLY THE I-25 CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY PUEBLO S TO THE
CO/NM BORDER. GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING THE WINDS WILL NOT PICK UP
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER 20Z. MOST OF THE STRONGER W
WINDS IN PUEBLO COUNTY WILL BE OVER THE W AND C PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A NICE DAY OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE FRONT GOES BY...TEMPS
WILL TAPER OFF A BIT...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE A DRAMATIC COOLDOWN.

TONIGHT...FIRST CONCERN IS THE SNOW...IT WILL BE INCREASING AS BROAD
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOWS WILL PICK UP BY EARLY
EVENING AND LAST INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CONTDVD. ANTICIPATING
GENERALLY 5-10 OF NEW SNOW ACROSS THE W SLOPES AND HAVE ISSUED A
SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS ALONG THE CONTDVD STARTING AT 00Z. IT
WILL BE WINDY SO THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 2ND CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER DRAMATIC
VARIABILITY IN THE LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE BOUNDARY
DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL STALL FROM ROUGHLY RYE SEWD TOWARDS THE
CO/NM/OK BORDER. S OF THE BOUNDARY THE W WINDS WILL KEEP UP AND
MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH DOWN INTO THE MID 40S (MAYBE
50S). N OF THE BOUNDARY EXPECT MINS IN THE 20S. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THE BOUNDARY WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW...SO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS N OF THE BOUNDARY (I.E W EL PASO/TELLER) WILL BE IN THE
STRONGER WINDS....AND EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS THIS REGION TONIGHT.
BUFFKIT DATA WAS HINTING AT SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER DVD...BUT I AM NOT TOO CONFIDENT THIS
WILL HAPPEN DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE BOUNDARY. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

...SNOW WINDING DOWN TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE DIVIDE...
...MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY...

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MAY FINALLY GET
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS IF THE LATEST GFS RUNS PAN OUT...ALTHOUGH
CAN NOT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE TENDENCY TOWARDS DRY THIS SEASON.

HEAVY SNOW WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOULD COME TO AN END FAIRLY QUICKLY OVR THE SW MTS AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THRU AT 18Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW. WILL HANG ON
TO SHSN OVR THE NRN RANGES THRU THE AFTERNOON. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVR THE HIGHER TRRN WITH THE BULK OF
THE SNOWFALL OCCURRING EARLY TUE MORN. OVR THE PLAINS...SAME
SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE STRONG WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN MTSAND
ERN SLOPES...ALONG WITH THE PLAINS W OF I-25. WILL SEE SOME VERY
STRONG GAP FLOW...WITH W WINDS GUSTING FROM 40 TO 60 MPH AND
PERHAPS HIGHER AT TIMES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE S PUEBLO COUNTY
DOWN TO VCNTY WALSENBURG. WILL ALSO SEE STRONG WINDS OVR THE
RATON...WHERE H7 FLOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED AT 70 KT BY 18Z. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT 24 H FOR POSSIBLE
HIGH WIND HEADLINES. OTHER ISSUE DUE TO WINDS IS THE HIGH FIRE
DANGER. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE SRN I-25
CORRIDOR INTO THE SERN PLAINS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ATTM
IT LOOKS AS THOUGH RH WILL NOT QUITE BE LOW ENOUGH TO MEET RED
FLAG CRITERIA...BUT GIVEN THE RECENT BIAS TOWARD LOWER RH THAN
EXPECTED...WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS AREA.

WILL SEE FIRE WX CONCERNS DIMINISH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...AS TEMPS FALL BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS OR EVEN BELOW.
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING
IN FROM THE NW BY LATE THU INTO FRI. ECMWF IS VERY MOIST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN WAY TOO WET ALL WINTER LONG. THE
GFS ALSO BRINGS IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS THE SUBTROPICAL
JET MOVES THRU SRN NM. MAIN PROBLEM IS THE POLAR JET DOES NOT SEEM
TO BE MUCH OF A PLAYER HERE...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
SO...HAVE CAUTIOUSLY RAISED POPS TO CLIMATOLOGIC NORMS FOR THE
AREA THU NITE INTO FRI. HOPEFULLY IT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED
DROUGHT RELIEF TO THE ERN ZONES. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS DISCUSSION IS PRIMARILY FOR THE 3 TAF SITES KPUB...KALS... KCOS.

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE 3 TAF SITES NEXT 24 HOURS. WE
WILL SEE A FROPA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS KCOS AND
KPUB...AND THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS INTO A SE DIRECTION. WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG. FOR KALS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT
STRONGER WITH SSW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER TONIGHT...BUT BELIEVE THREAT
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF.

SNOWS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MTNS TONIGHT...SO EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CONTDVD AFTER 00Z. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ225-228>230-233.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
TUESDAY FOR COZ060-066-068.

&&

34/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
715 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-100115-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
715 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EXTREME AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD
ANY FIRE START.

THE SAME STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND TRAVEL OVER THE PASSES WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FROM
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.