Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
249 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN WV PICS ACROSS WRN CO WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.  ACROSS THE PLAINS...LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LVL WINDS HAVE KEPT DEW POINTS UP IN THE
50S TO SOME LOWER 60S NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.  CLOUD COVER PERSISTED
THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH HAS KEPT SOME CIN ACROSS THE PLAINS...HOWEVER
AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES IN...SHOULD SEE THIS CAP ERODE QUICKLY FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. AND IN FACT...NICE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING THROUGH THE CEN MTS AS OF 18-19Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40-50 KTS ACCORDING TO SPC
MESO-ANALYSIS.  WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE STAYED MORE SOUTHERLY
THAN THE 12Z NAM ADVERTISED...WHICH HAS CUT DOWN THE LOW LVL
HELICITY POTENTIAL ADVERTISED BY THE MODEL EARLIER.  HOWEVER...ML
CAPES ARE RUNNING AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SE PLAINS WITH A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CAPE 600-1000 J/KG IN THE -10 TO -30C LAYER WITHIN
THE HAIL GROWTH REGION. ALREADY HAD A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN IN
PARK COUNTY VERY CLOSE TO THE TELLER COUNTY BORDER...AND HAVE SEEN
SOME STRONG ROTATION/FUNNELS WITH A STORM IN HUERFANO COUNTY.  WHERE
UPDRAFTS HIT POCKETS OF INSTABILITY...UPDRAFT STRETCHING COULD SPIN
UP SOME BRIEF TORNADO DOWNS. IN FACT...SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATING
SOME 0-1KM EHI OF AROUND 2 ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE
MTS.  GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE PARAMETERS...THINK MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THREAT AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  AREA WITH GREATEST RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL...GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WILL LIKELY BE TO THE
EAST OF I-25 AND TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.  MORE ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. SPC ISSUED A SEVERE TSTORM
WATCH WHICH RUNS UNTIL 03Z.  FIGURE NORTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WATCH MAY GET TO BE CLEARED EARLIER...WHILE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE WATCH LIKELY PLAY OUT TOWARDS THE EXPIRATION TIME.

BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS...AS LOW LVL JET INTENSIFIES AND
UPGLIDES OVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ALONG THE SRN BORDER.

ANOTHER FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE SE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...TOWARDS 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING.  DEW POINTS DECREASE TOMORROW...AND BOTH NAM AND
AND GFS INDICATE MUCH LESS COVERAGE IN THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...ESP
OUT WEST.  MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS WAS TO DECREASE POPS OUT WEST...AND
TO DECREASE TEMPS OUT EAST A FEW DEGREES.  OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY
APPEARS TO BE A MORE QUIET WEATHER DAY.

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE A BIT...SO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG
NW FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THU EVENING. NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE DISAGREEING
ON THE TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT WED...WITH GFS KEEPING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z...WHILE THE NAM MOVES IT DOWN
ACROSS THE E PLAINS AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS REALLY ARE
NOT INDICATING PCPN FOR THE CWA. WITH THE VCNTY OF THE SFC
FRONT...HAVE TO KEEP ISOLATED POPS INTO THE EVENING...AND LEFT
ISOLATED POPS FOR THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE LATE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON THU COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE ON TAP WITH EASTERLY
LLVL PUSH AND A SLOW WARM UP DUE TO LOW CLOUDS...BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BECOMES THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER...OR LIMITER...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DRY
AND PROGRESSIVELY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT...THEN
PERHAPS A RETURN OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SUN AFTN...THEN DIURNAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY FOR MON AND TUE AS MODELS INDICATE THAT MONSOON
MOISTURE COULD CREEP BACK UP ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. ACTUALLY...MON
AND TUE LOOK BETTER FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION SINCE THE RISGE IS
MOVING SLOWER...BUT KEPT ISOLATED POPS FOR SUN JUST IN CASE. FRI AND
SAT LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE EXTENDED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AT KALS. MUCH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES. +TSRA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. NEXT FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE SE PLAINS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z
TOMORROW MORNING BRING A NORTH WIND SHIFT. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE
KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
701 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-191315-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
701 AM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 3 PM...BUT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 5 PM.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TODAY OVER ALL OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A TORNADO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF
I-25. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL...THAT IS...HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER.

MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW...MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND A
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW
SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO LATE SATURDAY. SCATTERED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.

34/40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
220 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TORNADO          11 SE WALSENBURG        37.51N 104.64W
08/18/2009                   HUERFANO           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEBRIS REPORTED

&&

DMETZE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     TORNADO          11 SE WALSENBURG        37.51N 104.64W
08/18/2009                   HUERFANO           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEBRIS REPORTED

0214 PM     HAIL             4 N AGUILAR             37.47N 104.65W
08/18/2009  M1.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0211 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     8 S WALSENBURG          37.51N 104.78W
08/18/2009                   HUERFANO           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOOKING OFF TO THE EAST ABOUT 5 MILES. HILL OBSTRUCTING
            VIEW OF GROUND.

0206 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     6 SE WALSENBURG         37.57N 104.70W
08/18/2009                   HUERFANO           CO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS PUBLIC REPORTS

0149 PM     HAIL             WALSENBURG              37.63N 104.78W
08/18/2009  M1.75 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0142 PM     HAIL             5 WSW WALSENBURG        37.60N 104.86W
08/18/2009  M0.88 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1255 PM     HAIL             4 N AGUILAR             37.47N 104.65W
08/18/2009  M1.00 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL THROUGH 1258 PM.

&&

DMETZE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
259 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             3 WNW FLORENCE          38.40N 105.17W
08/18/2009  M1.00 INCH       FREMONT            CO   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE WITH QUARTER SIZED MIXED
            IN. HEAVY RAIN.

&&

DMETZE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
300 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             3 WNW FLORENCE          38.40N 105.17W
08/18/2009  M0.88 INCH       FREMONT            CO   PUBLIC

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                38.39N 105.12W
08/18/2009  M0.75 INCH       FREMONT            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
308 PM MDT TUE AUG 18 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             5 SE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.78N 104.76W
08/18/2009  M0.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMETZE