Severe Thunderstorm Warning 118, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
127 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS UNTIL 800 PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2009/

SHORT TERM...
( TODAY AND TONIGHT)

..SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS LIKELY TODAY. PATTERN IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH SPEED MAX AT H5 EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
CYCLONIC NW FLOW OVER ERN CO. COULD BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
TODAY...AND IF STORMS YESTERDAY PRODUCED GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZE
HAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY AGAIN
THERE TODAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT...PARTICULARLY WITH AN ONGOING MCS OVER NE CO ATTM. THIS
COULD REINFORCE THE FRONTAL PUSH LATER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES
FOR SVR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND ALONG AND EAST OF
I-25...BUT MAY END UP A LITTLE FARTHER N TODAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER LLVL
HELICITIES TODAY...SO ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY THERE IS A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. THAT
THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST OVER ERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INTO NERN NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ALSO...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER. EXTENSIVE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIMIT MAXT FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING REACHED FAIRLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
QUITE A FEW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIP MOVING
TO THE S THIS EVE. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD DESPITE
FALLING TEMPS ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG AND STATUS AGAIN LIKELY BY
EARLY THU MORNING. 44

LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

..COOLER AND POTENTIALLY STILL ACTIVE THURSDAY...THEN WARMER AND
LESS MOIST FRIDAY AND BEYOND...

SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TODAY WILL SEND A DECENT SURGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT THURSDAY...RESULTING IN COOL AND MORE STABLE UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS ON THURSDAY.  THIS MAY
END UP RADICALLY REDUCING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE
EAST...CONFINING MOST CONVECTION TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS.  HOWEVER...NOT READY TO
DOWNPLAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS TOO MUCH JUST YET...AS SHEAR
VALUES STILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING CONVECTION AND THUS
SUPERCELLS.  STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TRACKING SOUTHEAST ALONG OR
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD
CONTINUE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.  BUT...IN GENERAL...THINK THAT
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THIS DAY...WITH FEWER SEVERE
STORMS...COVERING A MUCH MORE RESTRICTED AREA IN AND CLOSE TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK STILL GENERALLY LOOKS HOTTER AND DRIER
ALTHOUGH EARLY MORNING MODEL RUNS ARE STARTING TO GIVE SOME MIXED
SIGNALS.  THE NAM12 HAS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS ON
FRIDAY THAT I DONT RECALL SEEING BEFORE.  SO...WILL KEEP SOME
ISOLATED 10-20 POPS GOING FOR THIS...HIGHEST OVER THE EAST.
THEN...ON SATURDAY...THE GFS40 HINTS AT A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WILL KEEP SOME 10 POPS GOING FOR
THIS.  LATE SUNDAY...THINGS STILL WANT TO MOISTEN UP AGAIN...BUT NOT
NEARLY WITH THE VIGOR OF PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  SO...FOR NOW...WILL
STAY WITH 10-20 POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND CALL IT GOOD.  THE WAY IT
LOOKS RIGHT NOW...THIS AMOUNT OF COVERAGE WOULD BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT.
IF THINGS TURN AROUND AGAIN...AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY ENTERS
THE PICTURE LATE SUNDAY...THEN STORM COVERAGE AND IMPACTS WILL HAVE
TO BE REVISED UPWARD. LW

AVIATION...MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SWD OVR THE ERN CO
PLAINS. KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS...THOUGH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SVR TS WILL BE S OF HWY 50 AND E OF I-25. A FEW
STORMS OVER THE SE PLAINS LATER TODAY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOME AREAS
OS PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BY THU MORNING OVER THE
PLAINS AND VALLEYS. 44

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
655 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-301300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
655 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL THREATS INCLUDE HAIL
UP TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES WILL BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST COLORADO...GENERALLY
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTNING...GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH...AND LOCAL FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PRIMARY THREATS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE LIGHTNING...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 1200 PM MDT.

44/50

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             3 SW PUEBLO             38.23N 104.65W
07/29/2009  M1.25 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DMETZE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             5 ESE PUEBLO            38.24N 104.53W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0233 PM     HAIL             BLENDE                  38.24N 104.54W
07/29/2009  M2.50 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

0230 PM     HAIL             5 E PUEBLO              38.27N 104.52W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AT NWS PUEBLO OFFICE

0226 PM     HAIL             3 E PUEBLO              38.27N 104.56W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   AMATEUR RADIO

0226 PM     HAIL             3 SW PUEBLO             38.23N 104.65W
07/29/2009  M1.25 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0220 PM     HAIL             3 NNW PUEBLO            38.31N 104.64W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

0220 PM     HAIL             3 N PUEBLO              38.31N 104.61W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

0215 PM     HAIL             5 E PUEBLO              38.27N 104.52W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0215 PM     HAIL             5 E PUEBLO              38.27N 104.52W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AT NWS PUEBLO OFFICE.

0215 PM     HAIL             1 WSW PUEBLO            38.26N 104.64W
07/29/2009  M2.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0202 PM     HAIL             2 E PUEBLO              38.27N 104.58W
07/29/2009  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0130 PM     HAIL             4 NNW WOODLAND PARK     39.04N 105.08W
07/29/2009  M0.88 INCH       TELLER             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1226 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW SECURITY          38.69N 104.78W
07/29/2009  M58.00 MPH       EL PASO            CO   ASOS

&&

DMETZE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
242 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

COZ076-077-081-083-085-292115-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-COLORADO SPRINGS
VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE BELOW 7400
FT-NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART
RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000
FT-WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
242 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO
  SOUTHERN TELLER COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO
  SOUTHWESTERN EL PASO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO

AT 242 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRIPPLE CREEK...OR 29 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRIPPLE CREEK.
  VICTOR.
  NORTHERN CANON CITY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
246 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 PM     HAIL             5 SSE PUEBLO            38.20N 104.58W
07/29/2009  M1.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   PUBLIC

            HAILED UNTIL 1445 PM.

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             1 SSE PUEBLO            38.26N 104.61W
07/29/2009  M1.75 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JKH