Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Pueblo, CO

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 262329
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COC055-071-089-101-270100-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-090727T0100Z/
OTERO CO-HUERFANO CO-LAS ANIMAS CO-PUEBLO CO-
529 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO...NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...EAST
CENTRAL HUERFANO AND SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTIES...

AT 529 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 31 MILES WEST OF THATCHER...OR 30
MILES NORTH OF TRINIDAD...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THATCHER.
  DELHI.
  TIMPAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE HIGH WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODS. IF WATER IS ACROSS YOUR PATH...DO NOT CROSS IT. THE
PATH OR ROAD MAY BE WASHED OUT...AND THEREFORE THE WATER WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

FREQUENT OR CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IF
CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WATER...METAL OBJECTS...AND ISOLATED
TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. IF INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
POSSIBLE...UNPLUG ANY UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
HITS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10432 3791 10375 3755 10367 3746 10461
      3768 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 259DEG 19KT 3760 10459

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 262356
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
556 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COC055-071-089-101-270100-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-090727T0100Z/
OTERO CO-HUERFANO CO-LAS ANIMAS CO-PUEBLO CO-
556 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO...NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS...EAST
CENTRAL HUERFANO AND SOUTHWESTERN OTERO COUNTIES...

AT 555 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 12 MILES WEST OF DELHI...OR 36 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TRINIDAD...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THATCHER.
  DELHI.
  TIMPAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE HIGH WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODS. IF WATER IS ACROSS YOUR PATH...DO NOT CROSS IT. THE
PATH OR ROAD MAY BE WASHED OUT...AND THEREFORE THE WATER WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

FREQUENT OR CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IF
CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WATER...METAL OBJECTS...AND ISOLATED
TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. IF INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
POSSIBLE...UNPLUG ANY UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
HITS.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 10432 3791 10375 3755 10367 3746 10461
      3768 10465
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 260DEG 17KT 3764 10423

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 270024
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
624 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COC055-071-101-270034-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-090727T0100Z/
HUERFANO CO-LAS ANIMAS CO-PUEBLO CO-
624 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO...NORTH CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND EAST CENTRAL
HUERFANO COUNTIES...

HAZARDOUS LIGHTNING MAY STILL BE IN THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3789 10377 3771 10371 3775 10396 3787 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 277DEG 9KT 3783 10383

$$

COC089-270100-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-090727T0100Z/
OTERO CO-
624 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY...

AT 622 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS CENTERED NEAR TIMPAS...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LA JUNTA...AND WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TIMPAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF POSSIBLE...WITHOUT RISKING YOUR SAFETY...PROTECT PROPERTY BEFORE
THE WEATHER HITS. GET IN A STURDY STRUCTURE AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...OR A BASEMENT CAN OFFER THE BEST
PROTECTION.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE HIGH WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODS. IF WATER IS ACROSS YOUR PATH...DO NOT CROSS IT. THE
PATH OR ROAD MAY BE WASHED OUT...AND THEREFORE THE WATER WILL BE MUCH
DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

FREQUENT OR CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO OCCUR. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. IF
CAUGHT OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WATER...METAL OBJECTS...AND ISOLATED
TALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. IF INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS AND AVOID USING THE TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. IF
POSSIBLE...UNPLUG ANY UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM
HITS.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 10377 3771 10371 3775 10396 3787 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 277DEG 9KT 3783 10383

$$

000 
WWUS55 KPUB 270100
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
700 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COC089-270110-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-090727T0100Z/
OTERO CO-
700 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL OTERO COUNTY EXPIRES
AT 700 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 3789 10377 3771 10371 3775 10396 3787 10395
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 277DEG 9KT 3782 10372

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
228 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)

...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY THOUGH THERE ARE A
FEW SUBTLE FEATURES OF INTEREST.  FIRST PRECIP WATERS HAVE INCREASED WITHIN
THE RECIRCULATED MOISTURE PLUME WITH VALUES INCREASING TO UP TO
AROUND 180% OF NORMAL VS THE 150% FROM YESTERDAY.  WV SHOWS NEXT
DISTINCT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NW CO WHICH WILL BE TRACKING EASTWARD
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.  THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FIRE
OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN AND NRN CO AS OF 18Z...AND IN AN HOUR
OR TWO EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL BE RAMPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 50 DEW POINTS WELL UP INTO
THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 40S FOR THE HIGHER MTNS.  THIS YIELD CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 800 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MOUNTAINS. SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS ANOTHER AXIS OF
HIGH CAPE OF 1500 J/KG ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE
QUITE WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE SE MTS/ADJACENT PLAINS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND
FORCING FROM INCOMING SHORTWAVE...AND DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND SATURATED
SOILS THE OCCURRED YESTERDAY...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.  BURN SCARS AND AREAS WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY
WILL BE THE MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING.  HOWEVER...URBAN AREAS TOO
(AS WE SAW IN CANON CITY YESTERDAY) WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID RUN
OFF AND FLASH FLOODING AS WELL.  STEEP SLOPES IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD SEE SOME MUD/ROCK SLIDES UNDER THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITATION RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR OR EVEN A LITTLE
HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...LAPS SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARENT SHOWING MUCH CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION OF THE
STORMS.  SO THINK THAT SCENARIO MAY PLAY OUT A LOT LIKE
YESTERDAY...WITH LOTS OF PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
COULDNT RULE OUT A COUPLE NICKEL TO NEAR QUARTER SIZED HAIL STONES
WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS AS THEY TAP POCKETS OF HIGHER CAPE ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES.

MODELS DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
COULDNT RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR TWO.

FOR MONDAY...MODELS START TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE NW U.S
TOWARDS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  70 KT UPPER JET WILL NOSE
INTO CENTRAL/SE CO DURING THE AFTN.  MODELS DRY OUT SURFACE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SE PLAINS SOME...AS FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
ACROSS NE CO.  THUS PRECIP WATERS IN NAM12 COME DOWN TO AROUND
130-150% OF NORMAL. THE DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS HELPS TO CUT DOWN
THE CAPE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW
DUE TO THAT.  HOWEVER WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT...SHEARS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE. WITH FORCING MOVING IN ALOFT...ITS HARD TO DECREASE
POPS SUBSTANTIALLY...THOUGH DO THINK THERE WILL BE A MINIMA IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF KCOS TO KTAD.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE AXIS DEPICTED BY THE
NAM ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES THEN UP ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY
TO THE NORTH.  WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS FOR THESE AREAS.  HEAVY
RAIN WILL STILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TOMORROW...BUT THINK THIS
THREAT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD.  AT LEAST UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
IN LATER IN THE PERIOD. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.  -KT

.LONG TERM...

(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

LONG TERM CONCERNS REMAIN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG
WITH TIMING OF BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVING ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUES ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TUESDAY. MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH WITH INCREASED UVV ASSOCIATED
WITH LEFT QUAD OF JET TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO
MONDAY NIGHT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GFS STILL LOOKING THE
MOST REASONABLE AS IT HAS THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO THE PALMER DVD MONDAY EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE SE PLAINS THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
WITH COOL AND MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE INCREASING STABILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF TAPERING BACK POPS FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR EASTWARD. HOWEVER...WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH
STRONG SOLAR HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS WITH BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PROGGED TO DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH MODERATE WESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASED THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW RETURNING ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY. HAVE KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS
AND PLAINS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES BACK INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY AND INTO WESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. COULD SEE ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF KEEPS THE STATE ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...THOUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE WARMER AND DRIER GFS. -MW

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  MVFR TO
LOCAL IFR CIGS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO NEAR 1 INCH IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH LOCALIZED ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH.  VFR CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SE PLAINS.  MODELS DEPICT LIGHT NORTHWEST SFC WINDS SPREADING
IN LATER TONIGHT WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH DRAINAGE TO
PREVENT PERSISTENT IFR STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING AT KCOS.  KPUB HAS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL THOUGH ITS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW
PERSISTENT THIS MAY BE AND DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL OCCURS
TONIGHT.  WILL THROW IN A SCT015 LAYER AT KPUB AFTER 12Z UNTIL THESE
DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ072>088-094.

&&

31/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1101 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-271715-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR
AS WELL AS NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE RATON RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOILS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY WILL BE MOST PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING...AS
WELL AS URBAN AREAS AND BURN SCARS WHERE HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE
QUICK RUNOFF. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25.

SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM MONDAY THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE ACTIVE AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES ALOFT INTERACT WITH AN
LOW LEVEL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

FOR TUESDAY...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ARE INDICATING IT MAY BE TO
STABLE ON THE PLAINS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THIS
DAY...HOWEVER...THEY INDICATE THAT SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THIS
INCLUDES ALL OF TELLER COUNTY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO
COUNTY. IT ALSO INCLUDES THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE WET MOUNTAINS AND THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

IF THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ON THE PLAINS DOES BECOME
UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY...THEN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE...AND IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE PLAINS
WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE. LIKEWISE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT INCREASE REDUCING THE DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 11 AM MDT.

31/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.88N 104.79W
07/26/2009  M1.60 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN PAST HOUR. STILL RAINING.

&&

MW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
317 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COZ065-069-072-073-078-262145-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500
FEET-
317 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO
  EAST CENTRAL SAGUACHE COUNTY IN CENTRAL COLORADO
  NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

AT 317 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VILLA GROVE...OR 51 MILES NORTH OF
ALAMOSA...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VILLA GROVE.
  CRESTONE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
318 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.88N 104.74W
07/26/2009  M1.85 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN PAST HOUR.

&&

MW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
413 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ENE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.87N 104.72W
07/26/2009  M1.61 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            60 MINUTE DURATION 230 PM TO 330 PM MDT. FROM COCORAHS
            OBSERVER.

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E COLORADO SPRINGS    38.83N 104.75W
07/26/2009                   EL PASO            CO   AMATEUR RADIO

            CREEK WENT OUT OF ITS BANK AND WAS FLOWING ACROSS THE
            ROAD AT GALLEY RD AND SAN MIGUEL.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
445 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

COZ086-262330-
PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
445 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2009

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  EASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
   THIS INCLUDES...NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO.

AT 443 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLENDE...OR 9 MILES EAST OF
PUEBLO...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER
STRONG STORM WAS CENTERED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BOONE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PUEBLO DEPOT.
  AVONDALE.
  BOONE.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.