Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)

CURRENTLY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG THE SAN JUANS
AND IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE TONIGHT
PERIOD ARE HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HOW LONG WILL IT LAST.

TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
COLORADO. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM
THIS LOW AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS EVENING. THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT IS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. THE GREATEST
THREAT IN THESE STORMS IS HEAVY RAIN. THIS IS DUE TO THE HIGH DEW
POINTS AND THE LACK OF STRONG MID LEVEL SHEAR. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHERLY FLOW AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MILDER THAN NORMAL. DAYTIME CONVECTION WILL AGAIN
BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW. THE SYSTEM WONT BENEFIT FROM THE MOISTURE
POOL AND UPSLOPE FLOW THAT IS PRESENT TODAY. THERE IS STILL A
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLORADO AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...

(WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)

UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES WEST AND AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WEST COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. CWA IN A MORE ACTIVE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND.

LEE SIDE TROF DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROF AXIS. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE OF A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ONTO THE
PLAINS...BUT KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE
MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...COOL FRONT BACK DOORS INTO
EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS SHOWS VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE KEPT VERY
LOW POPS IN AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COOL FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

ON SATURDAY...SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES WITH MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH COLORADO. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE ALSO TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT
COOLER. CLOUD COVER MAY REDUCE THE SURFACE HEATING AND SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SATURDAY...SO THIS MAY REDUCE OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS...BUT AGAIN LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.

SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW WEAKENS SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. ON MONDAY...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ADVERTISED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
HIGHS PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. HAVE TRENDED
COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE MODELS WITH THIS SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR...WITH GFS
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...

THE LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
WILL NOT DISSIPATE UNTIL MID EVENING. VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ALL AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AFTER CONVECTION HAS ENDED MID EVENING...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

14/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
703 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2009

COZ058>089-093>099-221315-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
703 AM MDT TUE JUL 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.  ONE OR
TWO STORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25
CORRIDOR MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
THREATS FROM MOST STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL POSSIBLE EACH DAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM MOST
STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SEVERE STORMS...PRODUCING HAIL
GREATER THAN AN INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH...MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM MDT ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

10/23

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
506 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             11 SW FLORENCE          38.26N 105.24W
07/21/2009  M1.75 INCH       FREMONT            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAILED FROM 435 PM THROUGH 449 PM.

0502 PM     HAIL             10 N LA VETA            37.65N 105.01W
07/21/2009  M0.75 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   PUBLIC

&&

KT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
519 PM MDT TUE JUL 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             11 ENE WALSENBURG       37.69N 104.59W
07/21/2009  M0.75 INCH       HUERFANO           CO   PUBLIC

&&

KT

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