Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Phoenix, AZ

000 
WWUS85 KPSR 251200
RFWPSR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
500 AM MST SAT APR 25 2009

AZZ131-132-CAZ231-232-251300-
/O.CAN.KPSR.FW.W.0008.090425T1900Z-090426T0300Z/
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 131                                    
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY/LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-
ARIZONA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 132                                    
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 231                                 
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
CALIFORNIA FIRE WEATHER ZONE 232                                 
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTY-
500 AM MST SAT APR 25 2009 /500 AM PDT SAT APR 25 2009/

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
REACH NECESSARY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

$$

AJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
915 AM MST FRI APR 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE WEATHER PATTERN
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL...PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A BATCH OF MID AND MAINLY HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA AND ARIZONA TODAY. MEANWHILE...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN CA
COAST...AND IS PROJECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD BEFORE MOVING THROUGH
ARIZONA SATURDAY. THIS POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM WILL BE DRY FOR OUR
AREA...WITH THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL COOL TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF NORMAL
FOR LATE APRIL...UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE WARMEST DESERT
LOCALES.

THESE TRENDS ARE HANDLED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND DIGITAL
DATABASE...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL VALID...
PATTERN CHANGE CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE CONUS...WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE W HAVING REPLACED THE STRONG RIDGE EARLIER IN THE WEEK THAT
LED TO OUR HOT TEMPS. FIRST SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SWD THRU
NRN CA EARLY TODAY AS DEPICTED BY WV LOOPS. 00Z NAM/GFS AND ECMWF
HANDLE THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY THRU ABOUT 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
NAM KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED LONGER AND IS THEREBY SLOWER TO MOVE THE
SYSTEM THROUGH. NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHICH MODEL WILL VERIFY
BEST...BUT IT IS RATHER A MOOT POINT FOR OUR CWA AS ANY OF THE
SOLUTIONS WILL BE DRY FOR US...AND WINDY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTEN. SPEEDS COULD ENCROACH UPON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OUT IN
WRN CWA ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THE CALL AS TO
WHETHER A HEADLINE IS NEEDED WITH LATER MODEL DATA IN HAND. COOLER
TEMPS ALSO A GIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THRU THE REGION IN A POSITIVE-TILT
FASHION SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS. DUE TO SLIGHTLY LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT ON SAT...
TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP JUST A BIT FROM WHAT WAS INHERITED. COOLEST DAY
WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY OVER THE ERN CWA...WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING ON
TAP OVER THE W.

DRY W/SWLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CWA THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AS LARGE...CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WILL
PROBABLY BE A COUPLE MORE WINDY DAYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AND...PRESENCE OF TROUGH TO OUR N WILL INHIBIT ANY APPRECIABLE
WARMING. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ENTIRE WEEK.
STILL...NO RAIN IN SIGHT THIS FAR S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX AND KIWA...
LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 16Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY BY 18Z THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY 21Z. ANTICIPATED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 20Z WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER 03Z FRIDAY. EXPECT SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 12 KFT WITH
BKN-OVC CIRRUS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AFTER 20Z PRODUCING VIRGA. SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 03Z BUT
WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE 6-7 KFT WILL REMAIN STRONG.

FAR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...PEAKING AT
ABOUT 00-03Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS OF 25-30
KNOTS. STRONG WINDS WILL LINGER OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY BEFORE
WEAKENING AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCT MID CLOUDS AOA 12
KFT WITH BKN-OVC CIRRUS. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AFTER 20Z PRODUCING VIRGA.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES NEXT WEEK WITH
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS ROTATING THROUGH THE MAIN TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
PERIODS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...MOST NOTICEABLY OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW...BELOW 15 PERCENT
AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR AZZ131-132.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR CAZ231-232.

&&

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...WANEK/ESTLE
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
553 AM MST FRI APR 24 2009

AZZ020>023-025>028-CAZ031-250100-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AZ-WEST CENTRAL DESERTS-
NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-GREATER PHOENIX AREA-
YUMA/MARTINEZ LAKE AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST DESERTS-
SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY-NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY-
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY CA-
553 AM MST FRI APR 24 2009 /553 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA...SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH FIRE
DANGERS TO WARRANT HEIGHTENED FIRE AWARENESS OVER THE WEEKEND...
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED AS A RESULT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ032-033-250100-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY/EASTERN DESERTS-IMPERIAL COUNTY-
553 AM PDT FRI APR 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH FIRE
DANGERS TO WARRANT HEIGHTENED FIRE AWARENESS OVER THE WEEKEND...
MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED AS A RESULT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND
SAND WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TO A MILE OR LESS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

ESTLE