Tornado Warning 1, NWS Portland, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
140 PM PDT THU JUN  4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROVIDE
WARM AND MOIST SE FLOW FOR A THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
INLAND FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DEEPENING MARINE
STRATUS UP FROM CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS
FOR MORNING CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS SEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON...ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE VORT LOBE
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES LIFTING UP INTO SOUTHERN OREGON. GOOD
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STILL SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS
EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THROUGH WEST OREGON...WITH
POPS DROPPING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND
MARINE AIR SPREADS IN FROM THE SW.

AS THE CA UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND FRI AND GETS CAUGHT UP
WITH THE SOUTHCENTRAL CANADIAN LOW...THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO END...ESP IN THE CASCADES...AS REGION
WILL REMAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH FRI
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT
AND SUN.

MARINE PUSH FROM THE SW TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A MARINE AIRMASS FOR
MOST OF THE INTERIOR. THE COOLER MOIST AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS MODELS INDICATE A PERSISTENT SW ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...GENERAL MODEL TRENDS IN THE MON TO THU TIME FRAME
SIMILAR IN INDICATING THE CA CLOSED LOW MOVING E...WITH A NW UPPER
FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHORTWAVES TO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AS
WEEK CONTINUES. WILL START MOSTLY DRY MON WITH THE UPPER FLOW A DRY
NORTHERLY DIRECTION...BUT ADD SOME LOW POPS IN THROUGH THU.

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE SUMMERTIME AIR MASS IS OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING TSTMS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH
THESE STORMS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO 40 TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TOPS TO 45
THOUSAND FEET. CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE IN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WITH
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  IFR STILL HOLDING ALONG COAST THOUGH EXPECT TO LIFT
AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WOLFE

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLE HAIL LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS AND VSBY COULD LOWER TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WOLFE

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING. GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTH AND EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY 5 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR/WA...NONE
&&

MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
537 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

ORZ001-002-005-009-014-WAZ019>023-039-040-051300-
NORTH OREGON COAST-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-LOWER COLUMBIA-
WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
537 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ORZ003-004-006>008-010>013-051300-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-
CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
537 AM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...LOCALLY WITH
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
123 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

ORZ012-013-042115-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY OR-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY OR-
123 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LANE COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
PDT...

AT 123 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOOKOUT POINT RESERVOIR...
OR 15 MILES NORTH OF OAKRIDGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VIDA...
  LEABURG AND WALTERVILLE...
  MOHAWK...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4413 12294 4422 12251 4391 12232 4380 12252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 144DEG 23KT 4397 12253

WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
151 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

ORZ004-008-042130-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON OR-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY OR-
151 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM PDT...

AT 151 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NOTI...OR 15 MILES WEST OF EUGENE...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH. THE STORM DOES HAVE ROTATION IN IT AND MAY
PRODUCE A TORNADO.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLACHLY...TRIANGLE LAKE AND HORTON...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4417 12374 4427 12346 4405 12323 4394 12343
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 143DEG 29KT 4407 12341

WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND

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