Winter Storm Warning 19, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
305 AM MST THU MAR 5 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OPEN WAVE CURRENTLY
WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING IN THE MTNS. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL SEE ONLY
ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
MIDLEVEL WINDS/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. MODEL DATA AND
LOCAL WIND SCHEME SUGGEST WINDS FLIRTING WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT WINDS JUST
BELOW CRITERIA AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. THE
OTHER STORY IS THE NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH...BRINGING TO AN END THE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN AFFECTING THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH UPPER TROF CROSSING THE AREA FRI AFTN AND
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME DECENT SNOWFALL TO
THE MTNS....WITH UPSLOPE FLOW FAVORING THE SAWTOOTHS...BIG/LITTLE
WOOD RIVER REGION AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. FCST SNOWFALL AMTS
FROM LUNCHTIME TODAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING 24 HOURS SUPPORT A
WINTER STORM WARNING WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING FOR AREAS
ABOVE 7000FT. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST ONE THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS...WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER AND FCST
AMTS ARE COMING IN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WARNING FOR THAT AREA
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN CASE HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED FOR THAT
AREA. ELSEWHERE...SNOW AMTS ARE MUCH TOO LOW FOR HIGHLIGHTS AT
THIS TIME FOR ANY PERIOD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
COLDEST ARRIVES TOMORROW...THE AIR MASS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
OVERALL COOL..THEREFORE SNOW LEVELS FOR TODAY SHOULD ONLY RISE TO
BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FT. FOR TOMORROW...PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL SNOW
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AND THE WARMER
VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN MTNS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN ON FRIDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
PART OF THIS SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST A TAD LIGHTER THAN TODAY
SO NO CONCERNS FOR A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL
EXIT SOUTHEAST IDAHO BY SATURDAY MORNING. IT WILL BE A COLD
MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR FOR NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND FRESH SNOW
ON THE GROUND. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MTNS...SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS LOOKING A CONVERGENCE EVENT IS
LIKELY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN FROM POCATELLO NORTHWARD...WHICH MAY
ACTUALLY BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THAT
REGION. BY LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN...AS WELL AS SNOW. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN WITH INCREASING CHANCES IN THE MTNS. WITH THE SYSTEM
STILL TO OUR NORTH...THE FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL
SHOW UP IN MODELS EVEN ON SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A
SLIGHT OVER WATER TRAJECTORY BUT THE GFS SHOWS VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE. THE GFS IS ALSO A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY WITH
WINDS ALOFT. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
OROGRAPHICS FAVORING THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND SNOW RATIOS
WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 TO ONE RANGE. THEREFORE EVEN WITH LIMITED
QPF...THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES BUT SHORT OF WARNING
CRITERIA. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN...WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
FIGURE ON SOME SHOWERS BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION UNDER TWO INCHES. VERY
LITTLE SEEDER FEEDER EFFECT. BY MONDAY THE ECM TAKES A TURN KEEPING
A SHARPER TROUGH OVER IDAHO WHILE THE GFS PROGRESSES EAST QUICKER.
GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FLATTER WITH FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC BUT
MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN IDAHO. MOST MODELS FAVOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE TROUGH AND THUS HAVE BEEN IN NO HURRY TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP BY
MID WEEK. GIVEN CHANGES IN MODELS HAVE MAD VERY FEW TWEAKS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RS

&&

.AVIATION...EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE CROSSING OREGON THIS MORNING AND
SOUTHEAST IDAHO 15-20Z WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MIX. SNOW LEVELS RISING TO 4700-4900 FEET AFTER 16Z IN THE KBYI
AND KPIH AREA. MAIN STORY IS WINDS WHICH SHOULD BE SOUTHWEST 20 TO
30 MPH GUSTS 35 MPH 15-01Z IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. WINDS SHOW LITTLE OR
NO INCREASE WITH HEIGHT TODAY. SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY WITH A COLD LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING IN NEAR SUNRISE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR IDZ018-031.

&&

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