Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. QUITE ACTIVE
DAY TODAY. WV IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER OF UPPER LOW NEAR RENO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND LOW AND NEXT
ONE POISED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILD
CONVECTION FOR THIS REGION ALREADY ONGOING WITH MULTIPLE WARNINGS
ALREADY ISSUED AND WATCH IN PLACE FOR MOST OF FCST AREA. SOME
STORMS SHOWING STRONG ROTATION BUT HAVE BEEN IN UNPOPULATED AREAS
SO DIFFICULT TO RECEIVE REPORTS. EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE WITH VIS
IMAGERY INDICATING RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED AND DEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELDS ACROSS FCST AREA. HAVE
ADJSUTED WX GRIDS TO INCLUDE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
EVENING...HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL FOR WINDS/HAIL. GIVEN HIGH PWS
ACROSS REGION...EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAVE INCLUDED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL MTNS. BIGGEST CONCERN IS CASTLE ROCK
BURN AREA BUT INCLUDED ZONES 18/32 PER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORS AND CONCERN FOR STEEP TERRAIN IN THE WILDERNESS. HAVE
SOME CONCERN FOR LAKE CONDITIONS FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR BUT
WINDS ALMOST DUE SOUTH EXITING CANYONS. EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
INCREASING RAPIDLY...DIRECTION IS NOT IDEAL AND WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW.

CENTER OF UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO NEAR BOISE BY MIDNIGHT AND SFC
LOW SHOULD BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF FCST AREA.
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TOWARD STRATIFORM NEAR CENTER OF UPPER
LOW...WRAPPING BACK AROUND IN A WIDE BAND INTO CENTRAL MTNS. MAY
NEED AN ADITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGH QPF SHOWN IN MODELS AND STILL DEEPLY MOIST
AIRMASS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL HELP KEEP CONVECTION DOWN
ON FRIDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE THREAT OF STORMS IN PLACE BUT AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED HEAVY RAIN.
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND
SHOULD BE LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL MONTANA BY LATE SATURDAY. HAVE
LEFT COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG NORTHEAST CORNER.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR REMAINDER OF FCST
PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. NEXT UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OFF
PACIFIC AND KEEPS UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO REMAINDER OF FCST OTHER THAN TO ADJUST FOR
COLLABORATION. CURRENT GRIDS SHOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO
NEXT WEEK. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION.  STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MODERATE
HAIL...GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER
THUNDERSTORMS...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AFTER
03Z...HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING.  BREEZY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE PLAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HANKO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND AND TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO NEAR REXBURG AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.  FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND MODERATE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE. THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...HOWEVER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL OF AROUND 1 INCH IS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION.  DRIER WEATHER WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HANKO

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ018-031-
032.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
410 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-071015-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
410 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. ELSWHERE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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