Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
110 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION FIRING QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ERN
OREGON. LIKE NAM DEPICTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH BEST
FORCING NEAR CNTRL MOUNTAINS. BOI SOUNDING INDICATING .80+ PW/S SO
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SELECT MOUNTAIN ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GFS LIFTS WAVE INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION/TSTMS POSITIONED ALONG THE
SE HIGHLANDS. PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET ARCHING THROUGH REGION IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DECENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED HAIL/GUSTY WIND/HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT CENTER
OF UPPER RIDGE FROM LOUISIANA WWRD TO NW TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING/WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TWO
WRINKLES NOTED IN THAT GENERAL SCENARIO...THE FIRST IS A POTENTIAL
PUSH OF MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH ABOUT THE LEADING/WRN EDGE OF THE
HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  SECOND WRINKLE IS
THAT GFS/ECMWF ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE A WEAK/MODEST
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
LIFTING IT NE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT INLAND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE
DRY AND WARMER. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS FOR BRIEF PERIODS INTO MID-EVENING...WITH MVFR
VIS/CIG CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.  DSH
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATURATED SOILS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION HAS
PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SELECT MOUNTAIN ZONES THOUGH
MIDNIGHT.  ELEVATED RESERVOIR RELEASES COUPLED WITH RECENT RAINFALL
HAS DRIVEN RIVER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON THE SNAKE RIVER IN
BLACKFOOT. FORECAST LEVELS ON THE HENRYS NEAR BLACKFOOT ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE STATEMENTS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HENRYS FORK
NEAR REXBURG AND THE SNAKE RIVER AT BLACKFOOT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 18/31/22>25 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-221300-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT DRIER WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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