Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
206 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE PAC NW THIS AFTN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THRU EASTERN ID TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONG THRU THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BY SUNDAY AFTN AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS...AND MIXING TRANSFERS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SFC. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADV FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SUN
AFTN/EVE. LOCAL WIND STUDY SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN MOS
PRODUCTS ARE INDICATING...WHICH WAS THE CASE WITH THE LAST WIND
EVENT.

TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN.
THIS IS WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOST UNSTABLE. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE MTNS THRU THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLD TSTMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. BY SUNDAY...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
TO NEAR THE WY BORDER AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
SHOULD ALSO DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST MORNING WILL BE MON...WITH SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.

THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS DRY...AS THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW STAYS
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SE ID. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 15 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED.
HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND UPPER
SNAKE PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH VCTS IN KPIH AND KIDA FOR THIS
EVENING...THEN VCSH OVERNIGHT.  HANKO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...PEAKING
AS HIGH AS 40 MPH GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN.  SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
UPPER SNAKE PLAIN.  RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO...BUT
ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A RED FLAG WARNING IN THE
CRITICAL FUEL ZONES.  ALSO EXPECT LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO REMAIN BELOW
THREAT LEVELS AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR
THIS EVENING OR SUNDAY.  BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING LARGE RH
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT ON
SUNDAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  HANKO

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY FROM NOON
MDT TO 900 PM MDT FOR IDZ017-020-021.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
459 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-201100-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
459 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON WILL
ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS OF UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH MAINLY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND A
GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND NORTHWARD MONDAY
AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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