Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
120 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO.
EXPECT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND CONTINUING REMAINING POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO UTAH. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH WILL ALLOW DRIER AIR TO WORK
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTH...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. -SHRA AND VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES WILL CHANGE
TO MOSTLY -SHRA OVERNIGHT. STRONG STORMS CAN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD PRODUCE BLOWING
DUST AND LOW VISIBILITY. OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO NEVADA AND UTAH
TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT CUTTING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
AND SLOWLY DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST INTO MIDWEEK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS AREAS CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONE 412 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW...THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS OF LIGHTNING MAY BE
LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ISSUING ANOTHER ONE FOR TUESDAY. GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR IDZ412.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
202 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-152015-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
202 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 9 PM THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TODAY AND AN UPPER LEVELS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND
SURROUNDING VALLEYS BELOW 5000 FEET. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE
TO CRITICAL FUELS AND LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT OVER NORTHERN UTAH ON
TUESDAY THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. DRIER AIR ARRIVES
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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