Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

DISCUSSION...A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE OREGON COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSUE RESIDES OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS OVER EASTERN IDAHO
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THE PAST 36 HOURS WHILE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY.

MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT
INLAND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY. AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE DRY AIR SOUTH OF THE LOW ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
AGREE WITH EARLIER SHIFTS THAT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

GRADIENT WINDS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN ON MONDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT TIGHTENS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS
HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS OUTPUT. HOWEVER...A WIND
ADVISORY OR AT LEAST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS. DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING 6 TO 8 DEGREES
CELSIUS COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA MID WEEK. THIS WILL BRING
A WARMING TREND TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BECOMING NUMEROUS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 06Z. BRIEF MVFR CEILING ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THESE FAST-MOVING
STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IN KIDA AND KPIH AREAS. HANKO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS IDAHO
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE NUMEROUS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED
ELSEWHERE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO MONDAY...
PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  A FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EVENING.  MUCH
DRIER AIR RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.  HANKO

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
521 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-131130-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
521 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD
NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
WITH SMALL HAIL AND MICROBURST WINDS TO 55 MPH BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.  BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY...THE LOW WILL PASS INTO MONTANA ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN AREAS WHILE STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN IDAHO.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...DRY AND MUCH WARMER
WEATHER WILL BE FELT ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. HIGHS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME AREAS FLIRTING NEAR
THE CENTURY MARK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
343 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E BLACKFOOT           43.19N 112.32W
07/12/2009  M0.28 INCH       BINGHAM            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            IN 10 MINUTES.

&&

PANGEL