Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
110 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTION FIRING QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF EJECTING UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ERN
OREGON. LIKE NAM DEPICTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE WITH BEST
FORCING NEAR CNTRL MOUNTAINS. BOI SOUNDING INDICATING .80+ PW/S SO
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SELECT MOUNTAIN ZONES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GFS LIFTS WAVE INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION/TSTMS POSITIONED ALONG THE
SE HIGHLANDS. PROXIMITY OF UPPER JET ARCHING THROUGH REGION IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE DECENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED HAIL/GUSTY WIND/HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT CENTER
OF UPPER RIDGE FROM LOUISIANA WWRD TO NW TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING/WARMING TREND EXPECTED. TWO
WRINKLES NOTED IN THAT GENERAL SCENARIO...THE FIRST IS A POTENTIAL
PUSH OF MOISTURE ROTATING NORTH ABOUT THE LEADING/WRN EDGE OF THE
HIGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.  SECOND WRINKLE IS
THAT GFS/ECMWF ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE A WEAK/MODEST
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
LIFTING IT NE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF BRINGS
IT INLAND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE FORECAST DURING THAT TIME FRAME...OTHERWISE
DRY AND WARMER. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME HAIL.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS FOR BRIEF PERIODS INTO MID-EVENING...WITH MVFR
VIS/CIG CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SHIFTS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.  DSH
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATURATED SOILS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION HAS
PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SELECT MOUNTAIN ZONES THOUGH
MIDNIGHT.  ELEVATED RESERVOIR RELEASES COUPLED WITH RECENT RAINFALL
HAS DRIVEN RIVER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON THE SNAKE RIVER IN
BLACKFOOT. FORECAST LEVELS ON THE HENRYS NEAR BLACKFOOT ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE STATEMENTS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HENRYS FORK
NEAR REXBURG AND THE SNAKE RIVER AT BLACKFOOT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR 18/31/22>25 UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-221300-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
550 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT DRIER WEATHER BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.  ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1237 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

IDZ020-021-211930-
JEFFERSON ID-BUTTE ID-BONNEVILLE ID-BINGHAM ID-BANNOCK ID-
1237 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IDAHO
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  WEST CENTRAL BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 130 PM MDT

AT 1234 PM MDT...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BLACKFOOT..MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA-SIXED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS IT
MOVES NORTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR FROM FORT HALL TO IDAHO
FALLS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   BLACKFOOT AND MORELAND...
   ROSE...
   FIRTH...
   SHELLEY AND GOSHEN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4362 11263 4346 11184 4301 11229 4322 11298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 214DEG 17KT 4315 11237

HUSTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1239 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     HAIL             FORT HALL               43.01N 112.45W
06/21/2009  E0.25 INCH       BANNOCK            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH MODERATE RAIN FALL

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1257 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             BLACKFOOT               43.19N 112.35W
06/21/2009  E0.25 INCH       BINGHAM            ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL WITH MODERATE RAIN

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
121 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             1 S AMMON               43.47N 111.97W
06/21/2009  E0.25 INCH       BONNEVILLE         ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

1250 PM     HAIL             2 S IDAHO FALLS         43.46N 112.04W
06/21/2009  E0.25 INCH       BONNEVILLE         ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

DPHELPS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
219 PM MDT SUN JUN 21 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     HAIL             5 WSW COLD WATER        42.59N 113.21W
06/21/2009  E1.75 INCH       CASSIA             ID   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

DPHELPS

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