Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF OF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS LOW KEEPS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH
HAS PRODUCED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST HAS EXERTED SOME INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA
TODAY...REDUCING THE COVERAGE. FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE FLOODING HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NEAR THE CASTLE ROCK
BURN AREA NEAR KETCHUM. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTION TODAY SHOULD
LARGELY DIMINISH TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. THEN REDEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ON THURSDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER THAN
TODAY SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

ON FRIDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH A CHUNK OF IT EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NEVADA FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY WITH
IMPRESSIVE COVERAGE EXPECTED. THE CONVECTION MAY NOT DIMINISH AS
WELL FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS WELL. SMALL HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROF WORKS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED MOIST CONDITIONS
AND EXPECT A COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.  GFS AND EUROPEAN START TO DIFFER BY NEXT WEEK WITH
GFS SHOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WITH THE EUROPEAN
KEEPING CYCLONIC FLOW AND EVEN A CLOSED LOW OVER IDAHO BY
WEDNESDAY.  BOTH KEEP WET PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED AND KEPT WITH THE
TREND OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DAILY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.  HAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
CONTINUES TO PUMP MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL AGAIN RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITY. THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP OVER
THE WEEKEND AND MOVES NORTHEAST...RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IDZ022>025-031.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
600 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-041300-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
600 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL IDAHO.  SEE THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY

DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  HEAVY SHOWERS...PRODUCING A FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

MESSICK

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