Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Pocatello, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE COTINUES TO FLOW INTO ID TODAY. A
MINOR WAVE IN THE SW FLOW SHOWS UP OVER NRN NV ON THE WV LOOP. TSTMS
DEVELOPING THS AFTN IN THE DESTABILIZING AIRMASS OVER THE MTNS.
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PW
VALUES RUNNING OVER 0.9 IN ACCORDING TO NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE TSTMS. SOME
RADAR INDICATIONS OF SMALL HAIL IN THE TSTMS.

UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO DOMINATE ON SATURDAY...BUT LINGERING MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR AFTN/EVE TSTMS AGAIN. TSTM
CHANCES DECREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS. BY TUE...A BROAD
UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE W COAST...WHICH STRENGTHENS THE SW FLOW
OVER ID. GFS NOT SHOWING MUCH MONSOON MOISTURE...SO ONLY EXPECTING
ISOLD TSTMS IN THE CEN MTNS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR...ALTHOUGH
FEW SHOWERS OUTSIDE THE STORM CELLS.  STRONG CAPE AND STRONGLY
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES LINGER UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THUS HAVE GONE
LONGER THAN NORMAL WITH -TSRA AND KEPT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH OUT THE
NIGHT PERIOD.  A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST SHOULD DRY AND STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE ON SAT.  STILL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT WIND OUTSIDE OF
-TSRA OR ANY CEILING/VISIBILITY PROBLEMS...AGAIN OUTSIDE OF -TSRA.
AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE LEFT IT AS VCTS.  MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AND SHOULD LINGER FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS.  AN EVENTUAL WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST EITHER SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT WILL DRY AND STABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE.  WIND ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.  BY MON...PRECIP THREAT GOES TO NEAR
ZERO AND TEMPERATURES WITH THE INCOMING LOW DROP.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
417 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

IDZ017>025-031-032-041030-
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY-SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS-UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS-
UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN-
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-CARIBOU HIGHLANDS-
CACHE VALLEY/IDAHO PORTION-WASATCH MOUNTAINS/IDAHO PORTION-
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION-LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI-
417 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN IDAHO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG AND COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME
ISOLATED OVERNIGHT.

THE SNAKE RIVER AT BLACKFOOT REMAINS JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND MAY AGGRAVATE ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FOURTH OF
JULY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ISOLATED
IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE ASK TRAINED SPOTTERS AND CITIZENS TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
INCLUDE HAIL...TORNADOES...STRONG WIND...DUST STORMS...SNOWFALL...
EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES...FREEZING RAIN OR HEAVY RAIN...DENSE
FOG...AND FLOODING OR ICE JAMS. INFORMATION ABOUT THESE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALLED INTO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN POCATELLO USING THE 1-800 SEVERE WEATHER HOTLINE...OR
208-233-0834.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
448 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

IDZ019>023-040015-
JEFFERSON ID-CARIBOU ID-FREMONT ID-BONNEVILLE ID-BINGHAM ID-POWER
ID-BANNOCK ID-MADISON ID-
448 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY IN EASTERN IDAHO
  WESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN BANNOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHEASTERN POWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  BINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  WESTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  NORTHWESTERN CARIBOU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO
  SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 615 PM MDT

AT 444 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PLANO TO IDAHO FALLS
TO 5 MILES NORTH OF ABERDEEN..AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   REXBURG... LORENZO...RIGBY...SHELLEY AND UCON...
   ABERDEEN AND ROSE...
   AMMON...BLACKFOOT...FIRTH AND IONA...
   ARCHER AND GOSHEN...
   GIBSON...
   POCATELLO...CHUBBUCK

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4342 11141 4299 11167 4248 11252 4309 11302
      4359 11218 4401 11192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 328DEG 17KT 4382 11188 4347 11208
          4302 11284

HUSTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
558 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

IDZ022-040100-
ONEIDA ID-CASSIA ID-
558 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CASSIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO
  SOUTHWESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO

UNTIL 700 PM MDT

AT 556 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BLACK PINE..MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   BLACK PINE...
   HOLBROOK...

LAT...LON 4216 11329 4227 11260 4199 11254 4199 11325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 261DEG 26KT 4209 11314

MESSICK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
626 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

IDZ017-040200-
LINCOLN ID-BLAINE ID-
626 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN POCATELLO HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BLAINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL IDAHO
  WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO

UNTIL 800 PM MDT

AT 623 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF WENDELL..MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   SHOSHONE...

LAT...LON 4320 11439 4319 11436 4320 11433 4280 11414
      4280 11433 4284 11436 4284 11457 4285 11458
      4309 11459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 252DEG 14KT 4285 11475

MESSICK

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