Winter Weather Advisory 5, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST MON FEB 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ON THE FRONT
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS, THEN
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA, ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OVER WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. FOLLOWING THESE SYSTEMS, AN ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE WITH CLOUDS SKIES LAGGING.
AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS ARE
FAIRLY FAR BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY, HOWEVER THE LEADING EDGE
HAS MADE IT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS OF 16Z. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WE ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO SLOW DOWN THE
INCREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN AREAS. THERE IS A
SWATH OF SOME SNOW AND RAIN WELL BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SOME OF THIS
WILL SCOOT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS INDICATE THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS DRY, HOWEVER WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THEN
TAPER THEM OFF QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
MILD, HOWEVER SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY BISECTING OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RAOB FROM STERLING,
VIRGINIA INDICATED +10C /50F/ AIR AT 975 MB. THERE IS A SHARP LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION ALTHOUGH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING, ALLOWING THIS INVERSION TO WEAKEN. AS A
RESULT, WE HAVE SEEN THE TEMPERATURES OFF TO THE RACES THIS
MORNING. WE RAISED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS
THE BOARD AND THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE
LATEST CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WE DID BUMP UP MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

OTHERWISE, THE SITUATION IS LOOKING MUCH BETTER THAN ABOUT 24
HOURS AGO AS ALL THE MODELS NOW TRENDING FOR OFFSHORE SOLUTIONS,
BUT THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR MARINERS FOR SURE.

THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MAINE, SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN MARYLAND
AND DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS TO A DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS ALSO
DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH WILL BECOME THE LOW
DESTINED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE FALLING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION TODAY BUT THAT TOO WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STILL NOT A CLEAR CUT SITUATION AHEAD, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR A
HEAVY SNOW IS GONE WITH THE LOW PRESSURES REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC, BUT WE ARE STILL IN FOR SOME SNOW. WHAT WERE LEFT WITH IS
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES, BUT THE BIGGER STORY
WILL BE THE WIND AND COLD FOLLOWING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WE
COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
AXIS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY BY
DAYBREAK. THERE IS A SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
LOWER LEVELS SO IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE UPPER LOW BACK
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE ABSORBED IN THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE COAST BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL. ANOTHER
AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THERE IS A WEAK
SURFACE CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO WITH THE SNOW FILLING IN OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SNOW WILL FALL STEADILY INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH JERSEY COAST WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THE UMBILICAL CORD BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
BREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST
BUT ENDING OVER THE WESTERN ZONES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 28 TO
38 EARLY IN THE DAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS LOW BELOW 10 NORTH TO LOW
20S SOUTH.

80H TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND MINUS 11 TO MINUS 14 ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A BITING NORTHERLY WIND. BUT THE TEMPERATURES GET COLDER
ALOFT. A TRAILING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTENSIFIES PULLING DOWN MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE
EVENING. 80H TEMPERATES OF MINUS 18 TO 22 DEGREES ARE MOVING INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE THE WINDS ARE PICKING UP STEAM AND BLOWING
ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 10
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5 DOWN SOUTH. MEANWHILE THE 0C LINE
AT 80H EXTENDS DOWN INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE TEMPERATES DROP
UNDER 30S DOWN THERE ON THURSDAY.

OUR WEDNESDAY HIGH WILL BE ONLY 10 NORTH, LOW TO MID 20S CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTING DURING THE DAY.

THE COLD AIR EXTENDS OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE A STRONG WARM UP OCCURS WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF THAT WILL ARRIVE HERE MIDWAY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE OL SAYING GOES, WHEN ONE PART OF THE GLOBE KICKS
THE OTHER FEELS IT. NO MATTER HOW LITTLE OUR SNOWFALL IS, IT WILL
LAY, FREEZE AND LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE COLD WEATHER THAT
FOLLOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TIGHT COLD ISOTHERMS PERPENDICULAR TO TIGHT ISOBARS MEANS ONE
THING. COLD. THE SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR INVADES THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN THE AIR IS
COLD AND DRY IT IS VERY HARD TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY MORE PRECIPITATION
EXCEPT COMING OFF AN UNFROZEN BODY OF WATER. THE LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE FROM 8 NORTH 16 CENTRAL AND 19 SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY 20 NORTH AND AROUND 30 ELSEWHERE. LOW THURSDAY NIGHT THE
LOWER TEENS NORTH AND UPPER TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE PARADE OF OFFSHORE LOWS WILL BE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE
UPPER FLOW WILL SHIFT WITH THE TROUGH OFFSHORE AND A BUILDING HIGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A CUTOFF LOW WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM
ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE LAKES AND
MOVE EAST WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE 30 NORTH NEAR 40 CENTRAL AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH. A CONTINUING WARM TREND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.

SEE YA NEXT GO AROUND-

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LITTLE IN THE WAY CLOUDS AROUND FOR MOST TERMINALS AT THIS TIME,
AND A COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AS OF 15Z. THE
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO KABE AND KRDG NOW AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN SATELLITE TRENDS, WE MAY HAVE TO DELAY THIS EASTWARD
INCREASING CLOUD TREND SOME MORE WITH THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME
PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY FAR BEHIND THE FRONT, AND PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MAKES IT TO KABE AND KRDG A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE MAINTAINED THE VCSH DESCRIPTOR. VFR
CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM
GATHERS STRENGTH TO OUR SOUTH. CONDITIONS LOOK TO LOWER TO AT
LEAST MVFR TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS, ALLOWING THE CLOUD
BASES TO LOWER.

OUTLOOK...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ONCE IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION, AND SOME SNOW
IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SEVERAL OTHER
IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A MAJOR SNOWSTORM, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER FOR MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A BRIEF RESPITE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
SCRAPE BY JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT ABE AND RDG.
THEN CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST WATERS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
WILL PRODUCE A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE
BAY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH 1 AM WEDNESDAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS EDGING IN FROM THE
WEST, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD IMPROVE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, CALMER SEAS
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIGHT NOW THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
APPEARS LOW. THE FORECAST TIDAL DEPARTURES WITH THIS EVENT ARE
AROUND 1 FOOT OR LESS, AND EVEN WITH A FULL MOON OCCURRING ON FEB
9TH, WATER LEVELS ARENT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FEET ALONG THE COAST.
SO IF ANY TIDAL FLOODING DOES DEVELOP, RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD BE MINOR. OF COURSE, IF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
CLOSER TO THE COAST, THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE/GORSE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE/GORSE/GIGI
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...MIKETTA/GORSE
MARINE...MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
824 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-031000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
824 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-031000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
824 AM EST MON FEB 2 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF MUCH COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
RATHER LOW WIND CHILL VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.