Winter Storm Watch 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 051644
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...A WINTER STORM COULD BRING SNOW FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-060000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
1144 AM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

COLDER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND
HEAD NORTH TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT AND A DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INITIALLY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET...TUESDAY EVENING. ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
PHILADELPHIA...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT IS FREEZING RAIN. AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN ALOFT TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 32
DEGREES. ICE COULD ACCUMULATE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH AFTER THE
CHANGEOVER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 052030
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-060500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
330 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO 
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS TO THE 
EAST AND IT SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD OUR 
REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES INTO 
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, A SECONDARY LOW 
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH LOWS 
ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON 
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY START AS 
LIGHT SNOW BEFORE IT BECOMES STEADIER ON TUESDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY 
NIGHT, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET, THEN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN.
THE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE PLACE GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH 
TO NORTH.

BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN 
NEW JERSEY WILL BE EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN 
FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY MORNING IN MUCH OF THE 
REGION. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER 
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW 
JERSEY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED 
TO RANGE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. 
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN 
NEW JERSEY COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

WITH FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING, UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE IN THE 
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS, AND 
IN THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET. WITH THE 
FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER ON WEDNESDAY IN PARTS OF 
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, SOME 
LOCATIONS IN THAT REGION COULD RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM LATE 
TUESDAY INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND 
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON AREA 
ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

ALSO, ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES FROM TUESDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER 
OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

$$

IOVINO

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 060230
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-061100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
930 PM EST MON JAN 5 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND TOWARD
OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, A
SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST. BOTH LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING
ATLANTIC CANADA ON THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE UP INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY
START AS LIGHT SNOW BEFORE IT BECOMES STEADIER ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ON TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET, THEN
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN. THE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD TAKE
PLACE GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

BY DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WILL BE EXPERIENCING FREEZING RAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE POCONOS
AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE UP TO AN INCH OR TWO BEFORE THE CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD RECEIVE UP TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW.

WITH FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE IN
THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF BERKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND
BUCKS, AND IN THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET.
WITH THE FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER ON WEDNESDAY IN
PARTS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY, SOME LOCATIONS IN THAT REGION COULD RECEIVE UP TO A HALF
INCH OF ICE.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM
LATE TUESDAY INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

ALSO, ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

$$

IOVINO

000 
WWUS41 KPHI 060939
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NJZ009-010-PAZ060-067>069-062115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.090106T1700Z-090107T1300Z/
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...READING...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR BERKS...CHESTER...MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET COUNTIES OF
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM
EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE BY THIS
EVENING. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET FALLING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THAT COULD LAST PAST THE RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY. 

WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WHICH MAY RESULT IN ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF ICE. THIS WOULD ACCUMULATE
ON WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD COME DOWN FROM THE WEIGHT AND
THERE LIKELY WILL BE POWER OUTAGES.
 
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND CHANGE THE MIXTURE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON TIME. 

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO PART OF WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON AREA
ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. PLEASE USE EXTREME
CAUTION. 

$$

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-061-062-062115-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.090106T2300Z-090107T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.090106T2100Z-090107T1500Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR LEHIGH...NORTHAMPTON...CARBON AND MONROE
COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND WARREN...MORRIS AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE BY THIS
EVENING. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET FALLING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THAT COULD LAST PAST THE RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY. 

WHILE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
WHICH MAY RESULT IN UP TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. THIS WOULD
ACCUMULATE ON WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD COME DOWN FROM THE
HEAVY WEIGHT AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE POWER OUTAGES.
 
AFTER A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM AND CHANGE THE MIXTURE OVER TO ALL RAIN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE HAZARDOUS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON
AREA ROADS AND WALKWAYS.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET...AND IN
THIS CASE UP TO A HALF INCH OF ICE ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE USE
EXTREME CAUTION.  

$$

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012-015>019-PAZ070-071-062115-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.090106T1600Z-090106T2300Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
439 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND...NEW CASTLE COUNTY
DELAWARE...AND SALEM...GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...NORTHWEST
BURLINGTON...MERCER AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
NEW JERSEY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE BY THIS
EVENING. A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET FALLING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THAT COULD LAST PAST THE RUSH HOUR ON WEDNESDAY. 

TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A BIT SLICK LATER TODAY BUT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN ABOUT THE TIME THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR BEGINS.  

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

EBERWINE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND BE
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY AND HEAD NORTH TO THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD PULL A WARM FRONT
AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
EVENTUALLY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WITH THE LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN OUR
REGION, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING THIS EVENING.  THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AT 930 PM.  THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, WITH
LIGHT AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE BUILDING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER, A FEW POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN IN PARTS OF THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY,
AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.  THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.  HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE OF
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO THE EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES AND THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.  AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE NOT ISSUED AN ADVISORY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
SITUATION WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
NOW THE WRF-NMM DROPPED ITS FEEDBACK DOWNPOURS...THE MODEL SOLUTION
FOR MONDAY FALLS BETTER 'N SYNC. THERE SHOULD BE A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN IN THE SERN ZONES BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS OUR CWA EARLY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FCST SHORT WAVES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES,
BUT FCST MOISTURE BELOW THE JET STREAM LEVEL IS SUPPOSE TO BE
MEAGER. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY CONTINUES AND HAVE
A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT. FULL SUN MACROS HAVE NOW RISEN TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH MAKE THE CURRENT MOS GUIDANCE
LOOKS REASONABLE.

A QUITE NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STROLLS
ACROSS OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ABOUT MIN TEMPS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THICKER CLOUDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE
MIGHT BE TOO COLD IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA AND TOO WARM IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

WE CAN ENVISION TIMING ISSUES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ABOUT
THE START OF THE PCPN FOR TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE GOING BACK AND
FORTH BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL STRONG RIDGING ON TUESDAY DAY TO STOP
THE ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR IN
SHOWING INCREASING FCST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WAA AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. ITS HOW MUCH OF IT IS GOING TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND TO THE TUNE OF SIMON AND GARFUNKEL'S THE SKY HAS A HAZY
SHADE OF WINTER. IT IS OFTEN A RULE OF THUMB TO EXPECT WAA INDUCED
PCPN EVENTS TO OCCUR TOWARD THE FASTER SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE
AND SO WE DID FOR TUESDAY DAY. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY
EMPHATIC ABOUT WARM AIR ARRIVING AT AROUND 800MB AND CLOSING THE
SNOW WINDOW DOWN. THIS HAS BEEN A RETURNING THEME SO FAR THIS WINTER
WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS. CONVERSELY THE MODELS MAINTAIN A SLEET
POSSIBILITY INTO THE AFTN ACROSS OUR DELMARVA ZONES AND INTO THE EVE
AROUND THE LOCAL PHL AREA AS THEY TENACIOUSLY HANG ON TO A COLD
LAYER AT 925MB (THIS ALSO PRODUCES WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE SNOW
THICKNESSES BASED ON  1000-850MB NUMBERS). THUS WHILE WE THINK MOST
OF OUR CWA WILL START AS SNOW...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PROBABLY BE
LIMITED TO PLACES NW OF THE I95 CORRIDOR AND TO GET TO A FEW INCHES
IT PBLY WILL BE ONLY IN OUR FAR NWRN ZONES.

THE MORE PROBLEMATICAL PART COMES TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN. THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE WARM
FRONT TO OUR SE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO DAM COLD AIR IN OUR NWRN
ZONES. WE TOOK THE MOST CONSERVATIVE SFC TEMP APPROACH LEAVING MOST
OF OUR CWA FROM THE PHL NORTHWEST SUBURBS AND HUNTERDON/SOMERSET
COUNTIES NWWD AOB FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
SAY WE MIGHT GET SLEET INTO A GOOD PART OF THE NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE
A BETTER ALTERNATIVE THAN JUST FREEZING RAIN. EITHER WAY ITS
BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BECOME
NECESSARY. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUING HIGHLIGHTING IT IN THE HWO.
MIN TEMPS FOLLOWED THE MOS GUIDANCE PROJECTION OF TEMPS STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.

AT LEAST THE INDIRECT SUN SHOULD ASSIST OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES EVEN
IF SFC TEMPS DO NOT GO ABOVE FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY DAY.
ELSEWHERE A RAINY DAY IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CDFNT MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE SUSPECT OUR MAX TEMPS MAY BE TOO LOW IN OUR NW
ZONES WHERE COOL AIR MAY BECOME TRAPPED. CONVERSELY OUR FAR SERN
ZONES MAY HAVE ONE OF THOSE 60 DEGREE DAYS.

PCPN EVENT WILL BE UNWINDING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
HAS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THIS AXIS MOVES THROUGH AND WE GET
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS AS THE TROF MOVES
THROUGH. FLURRIES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES FROM WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT FETCH AT
LEAST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COLD BUT DRY DAY FOR OUR CWA ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS IS GETTING
CLOSER. THE GFS HAS ONCE AGAIN GONE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AMD
ABANDONED AN OFFSHORE SERN SCOOTER LOW. NOW THAT IT LOST THE LOW,
THE GFS HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH ITS 12Z SATURDAY/00Z SUNDAY
FCST 850MB TEMPS (10 TO 14C) FROM YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR MASS
PRECEDING THIS CDFNT IS PRETTY COLD, SO WE KEPT A CLIMO INFLUENCE
WITH PTYPES SINCE THIS IS STILL SIX DAYS AWAY. LOOKS LIKE DECENT
ENOUGH SOUTHERN MOISTURE INFLOW FOR A MEASURABLE EVENT. BEYOND THAT
IT LOOKS DRY, BUT WINDY AND COLDER AGAIN FOR SUNDAY.

OVERALL THE TELECONNECTIVE INDICES CHANGES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK. THE NEGATIVE NAO WEST IS FORECAST TO FADE AROUND THE 1/6 TO
1/7 EVENT WHICH POINTS TO GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT
PCPN EVENT. IN THE PACIFIC A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE EPO PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL
BRING IN COLDER SHOTS OF AIR INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS A
LARGE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE WRN CONUS COAST. THERE IS
FURTHER CORROBORATION OF THIS OCCURRING BASED ON THE CURRENT
MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION POSITION AND MODEL FORECASTS OF ITS FUTURE
EVOLUTION. WHILE THE POSITIVE NAO WOULD PERMIT THESE COLD AIR MASSES
TO EXIT TO THE EAST, THE POS PNA/SLIGHTLY NEG EPO CONFIGURATION
WOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BRING MORE COLD SHOTS OUR WAY. THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS EVEN FORECASTING A CROSS POLAR FLOW TO DEVELOP
DURING THE WEEK OF JANUARY 11TH. GETTING REALLY OUT THERE IN THE
FUTURE, THE GFS IS FORECASTING THIS POSITIVE PNA PATTERN TO
BREAKDOWN AND THE POSITIVE NAO PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THIS WOULD BRING
AN OLD FASHION JANUARY THAW TO THE REGION PROBABLY SOMETIME DURING
THE WEEK OF JANUARY 18TH. THE MODELS NORMALLY BREAK THE WESTERN
RIDGE TOO SOON, BUT THIS WINTER HAS BEEN ONE WHERE NO SPECIFIC
TELECONNECTION PATTERN HAS BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST FOR MORE THAN ABOUT
TWO WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED TO PUSH UP THE BEGINNING OF MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING. NOW THAT THEY HAVE ARRIVED AT MANY LOCATIONS, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
PRESENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT. I HAVE NOT WRITTEN IN
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT, BUT A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR WITH ANY STEADIER PRECIP. IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER FROPA IN
THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME MON. VFR WITH A GUSTY W TO NW WIND FOR THE
BALANCE OF MON.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN TAKE AIM AT THE AREA. THE MAIN
CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE MIDWEST TUESDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY WILL FORM ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. IT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST UP THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER THE CIRCULATION
FROM THE INLAND CENTER, BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT IS
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE ONSET,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST. MILDER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN INTO
THE CIRCULATION AND WHATEVER SNOW FALLS AT THE ONSET WILL QUICKLY
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN. AND IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THERE COULD BE A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME SHOWERY
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO
FAIR WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH IS SUPPLYING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W AROUND 10 KT AND THEN TO NW 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT BY MIDDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD
BE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE ONE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP INDUCE ANOTHER AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO FORM AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS, IN TURN, WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN MORE
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND/OR
GALE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW
WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STAUBER/GIGI
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...RPW/O'HARA
MARINE...RPW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-061-062-051200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-
945 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND IT SHOULD CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ012-013-015-PAZ060-067>069-051200-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
945 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND PARTS
OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND IT SHOULD CHANGE
TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  AN ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
AND ICE IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ014-016>027-PAZ070-071-051200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
945 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE, NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AND IT SHOULD CHANGE
TO RAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-051200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
945 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.