Special Marine Warning 12, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1127 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL BE COOL TODAY WITH RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITIES AS AN EAST
WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG WITH THE FRONT AND RIDE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN PATTERN, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY, THEN MORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE STEADY RAIN THAT WAS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME MORE SHOWERY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE AREA, WE WILL
CONTINUE HAVE PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT LOW 40S NORTH TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COAST. QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME SPOTS.
ATLANTIC CITY STANDS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING THE YEARLY PRECIP
DEPARTURE GET TO NORMAL OR ABOVE. AS OF THIS MORNING, THEY ARE
STILL 1.63 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

CONCERNING THE ECHOES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA. HAVE COME UP WITH A
TIMING FOR THE BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IDEALLY, IT
WOULD TAPER OFF BY 8-830 AM OVER THE NORTHEAST MARYLAND ZONES AND
SOUTHWEST NEW JERSEY ZONES BY 1030 OR 11 AM. POPS MAY DECREASE
RAPIDLY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WELL SEE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW RIDES UP THE NJ COAST INTO CONNECTICUT BY LATE
TUESDAY CARRYING MOST OF THE STEADY RAINS WITH IT. MOST BUT NOT
ALL AS SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS RIDE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND CLIP
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEFORE THE RAIN CAN
TOTALLY END THE FAST FLOW HAS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG IT
AND BRINGS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THE PLAINS
STATES REACHING US ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AVERAGE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORTH FAR
NORTH TO ABOUT 4 DEGREES BELOW SOUTH AND REACH CLOSE TO NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UPPER SUPPORT AND VIGOR WITH THIS NEXT SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND THIS COULD
DEVELOP A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A
NEGATIVE TILTING UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE LOW MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SOME HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY THERE. THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ROTATES NORTHEAST
INTO NEW JERSEY LATE THURSDAY BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE UPSTREAM IN THE
FAST FLOW AND WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A SIMILAR LIKE SETUP(SUPPORT ALOFT AND SURFACE
LOW)MOVE INTO THE PICTURE ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO SATURDAY WITH
FINALLY SOME CLEARING ON SUNDAY.

HOWEVER, DONT GET TO OPTIMISTIC, ANOTHER LOW IS TARGETING THE
REGION FOR MONDAY

TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE HOLDING AROUND
NORMAL DURING THE DAYS AND ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A DREARY FLYING DAY TO REMAIN FOR ALL TAFS TODAY. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. THERE
MAY BE SOME BRIEF OCCASIONS WHERE THE CIGS/VSBYS GO VFR, BUT THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS, WITH POSSIBLY
SOME GUSTINESS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND LOW
MOVES ON BY AND WK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.  THE RAIN SHUD TAPER OFF, OR
AT LEAST BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND SOME CIG IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED,
EVEN THOUGH IF THERE IS ENUF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, VFR MAY BE
WISHFUL THINKING.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FCST TO
APPROACH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS HAVE RISEN TO 5 FT, AND
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS SEAS ABOVE AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT FOR TODAY AND
EXTEND IT THROUGH TONIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A LONGER TIME PERIOD, AND ISSUE ONE FOR THE NORTHERN
WATERS IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF A DRY TIME COMING TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-051515-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-051515-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-051515-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-051515-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
1114 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.