Areal Flood Advisory 96, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING THE
CHANCE OF MORE SHOWERS SOMETIME ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT 12 HOURS AS WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE SOUTHERLIES HAVE KICKED IN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH. WE CONTINUE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TSTMS ENTIRE CWA BUT ACTIVITY OVER MID/VA APPEARS STRONGEST AT
THIS TIME. THE ABSENCE OF SUNSHINE BEING OFFSET BY DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME STRENGHTENING OF THE STORMS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
DELAWARE VALLEY AROUND 01Z AND CONTINUE TO THE COAST AROUND 06Z
WITH RAPID CLEARING. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 50S SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GORGEOUS POST-FRONTAL FALL WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SUNSHINE
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES....WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE MID 30S POCONOS TO MID AND UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST. SHORT WAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST AS THE FLOW ALOFFT TRANSITIONS INTO BROAD CYCLONIC MID CONTINENT
FLOW. CUTOFF FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MOISTURE POOLING DOWN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEING TURNED NORTH BY THE CONVERGING
FLOW WITH PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTH TO THE DELMARVA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY STARTS HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GOOD NEWS IS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF REGION ON TUESDAY, THEN TRACK
THIS SYSTEM TOWARD OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
DIFFERENCE COMES WITH THE TIMING AND WHERE IT TRACKS. THE GFS IS
FASTER, AND CARRIES THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FARTHER, WHILE THE ECMWF IS
SLOWER AND CARRIES THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH. EITHER WAY,
BOTH DO GIVE US A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK,
BOTH MODELS HAVE A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY. THIS COULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD AGAIN INCREASE OUR CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION. HOPEFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE MODEL GUIDANCE
WILL BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH EACH OTHER. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WERE LOWERING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASING, ALSO
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS ADVANCING
EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE FRONT WAS ACTUALLY A BIT
FASTER THAN THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE WAS PROGGING, SO
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WAS BROUGHT FORWARD A BIT FROM THAT, AND
ADVANCED MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM INHERITED FORECASTS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THE DELAWARE RIVER AROUND 01Z, OR BETWEEN 01Z AND
02Z, AND THEN MOVE TO THE COAST BY ABOUT 03Z TO 04Z. THE EVENING
SHIFT FORECASTER WILL LIKELY BE ABLE THE REFINE THAT AS THAT TIME
PERIOD NEARS.

ALSO, THE ATMOSPHERE WAS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON ON A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO ABOUT MINUS TWO. ON
THE NEGATIVE SIDE, THOUGH, CAPES WERE FORECAST TO BE VERY MODEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY SURFACE-BASED CAPES.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD BLOSSOM WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, SO A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AROUND FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME.

MOST CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN, OR OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOWER TO,
THE MARGINAL VFR RANGE, BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS.
ALSO, SCATTERED IFR VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS, TO VFR, WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING OR BY MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS. WIND AND RESULTANT MIXING SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATE TONIGHT.

FINE FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY IN SLIGHTLY TURBULENT MIXING
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST MAY CREATE THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LATER TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...
AND IT WILL BE EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEAS. THE STRONGISH PRE-FRONTAL WINDS OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE LAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
TRANSLATED TO THE WATERS, AS STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD LIMIT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER, FREQUENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT ARE GOING TO OCCUR. ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY TRANSPORT MUCH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE AND MAY NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
...SO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO IF YOU WILL BE OUT ON THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

BETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THRU
MONDAY. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST MAY
CREATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STRONGER WINDS AND
HIGHER WAVES LATER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE
NEAR TERM...EBERWINE
SHORT TERM...EBERWINE
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
318 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-250730-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-
318 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012>027-PAZ060>062-
067>071-250730-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-
BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
318 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS IF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMS LATER TODAY, THERE ALSO
MIGHT BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAN
KEEP SEPARATION FROM THE MAIN LINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING IS IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY OR DELAWARE. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
THIS EVENING. ANY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY
FALLEN LEAVES CLOGGING OR SLOWING THE WATER FROM ENTERING CATCH
BASINS. PLEASE LOOK FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES LATER TODAY. IF YOU SEE
THREATENING WEATHER, HEAD INDOORS QUICKLY. L

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-250730-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
318 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REQUIRING SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

TFG

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