Wind Advisory 16, NWS Pendleton, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1050 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAM ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN
AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE VERY TIGHT
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING 6-HOUR PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 10 MB FROM 2 PM ONWARDS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND BECOME
WINDY TO VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS...BY AROUND 2 PM
AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WILL
CLOSELY MONITOR WINDS IN THIS AREA AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY LATER TODAY.

THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON CASCADES...INCLUDING THE
KLICKITAT VALLEY.  POLAN

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR AT KDLS AND IFR AT KYKM IN RAIN SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BECOMING AT
LEAST 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN
REPORTED AT KRDM AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  82

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2009/

SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS THE STRONG 130-150 KT UPPER JET
STREAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE GFS IS FASTER IN BRINGING THE JET
INTO WESTERN OREGON THIS MORNING AND HAS THE STRONGEST WIND CORE
REACHING THE CWA BY 12Z...WHILE THE NAM HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL ALMOST
21Z. HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE ABOUT THE SAME WITH WIND SPEEDS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STABLE TODAY AND THE UPPER JET WILL
CAUSE A MOUNTAIN WAVE TO FORM ON THE LEE OF THE CASCADE EAST SLOPES.
AT LEAST 40-50 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN WASHINGTON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADE EAST SLOPES. THIS CONVERTS TO ABOUT 46 TO 58 MPH WHICH IS
ENOUGH FOR A MINIMAL HIGH WIND WARNING. AS SUCH WILL UPGRADE THE
WATCHES TO WARNINGS AND WILL DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL 18Z WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM12 MODELS. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
WINDY IN OTHER AREAS OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE BLUE MOUNTAINS
WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN AND THE
CENTRAL OREGON PLATEAUS. AREAS THAT WILL BE SPARED THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE THE YAKIMA AND KITTITAS VALLEYS AND THE GRANDE RONDE
VALLEY WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO STABLE TO ALLOW THE STRONG
WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LADD/PYLES
CANYONS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL WA CASCADE PASSES NORTH OF THE
WARNING AREA WHERE THE ELEVATIONS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE
THE JET STREAM WINDS MORE. HOWEVER WINDS IN THESE PASSES WILL LIKELY
NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA EITHER. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN
OTHER AREAS THAN THE WARNING AREAS TODAY AND THE DAY SHIFT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR IT CLOSELY...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE WINDS IN THESE
OTHER AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY SPEEDS. THE WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER JET LOOSES
STRENGTH AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD.

ANOTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS
ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FT MSL. HOWEVER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ADVISORY AMOUNTS. WILL
MENTION IT NEVERTHELESS IN THE HWO WHERE SEVERAL INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE. A FAST WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL KEEP ONE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE AFTER ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INTO THE EXTENDED. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LOWER A BIT TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. 88

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE
WITH MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
TO CONTINUE UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVEL 4500-5500 AND THEN LOWERING DURING THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  51  33  50  32 /  60  40  30  30
ALW  52  34  51  33 /  60  40  30  30
PSC  52  35  51  34 /  50  20  30  20
YKM  50  31  49  30 /  30  20  20  20
HRI  53  33  52  32 /  50  20  30  20
ELN  43  25  42  24 /  30  20  20  20
RDM  46  29  44  28 /  60  30  30  30
LGD  46  34  44  33 /  50  30  40  30
GCD  48  32  46  31 /  50  30  40  30
DLS  47  33  46  32 /  60  20  20  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ042-043.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ502.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
99/82

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