Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
302 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS EVENING...AS A SHORT
WAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST. STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO IN THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CWA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...AS CAPES RISE TO AROUND 3000. THE CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES HOWEVER IS MINIMAL WITH LITTLE SHEAR THROUGH THE COLLUMN. WITH
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE
STORMS EXPECTED...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MODELS ARE SLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. RIDGE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
HOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CROSS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THEN VERY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND
BY LATE IN THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNSETTLED...WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS.

CONCUR WITH SPC THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF THESE STORMS REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE MAIN HAZARD WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN ALSO
POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE FORECASTED A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD THIS
EVENING OF MVFR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE RAIN AND WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPEMENT. BRIEF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS MAY GO OVER 35 KTS BUT
ONLY 20-25 KTS FORECASTED.

THERE MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE SURFACE LAYER DEW POINTS DECREASE SATURDAY. BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF MODEL RUNS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW MAY BRING MVFR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-261830-
TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-
MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-
222 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD
PRODUCE FLOODING OF STREAMS OR URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-
261830-
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-
BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-GREENE-
FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-MONONGALIA-
PRESTON-TUCKER-
222 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING OF STREAMS OR URBAN AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
856 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

PAZ014-015-022-260130-
ARMSTRONG PA-BUTLER PA-CLARION PA-
856 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

...HEAVY RAINFALL...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE OVER THE CLARION AND
ARMSTRONG COUNTY BORDER.

VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CLARION AND
EXTREME NORTHERN ARMSTRONG COUNTIES. CATFISH RUN IN SOUTHERN CLARION
COUNTY HAS RECEIVED ABOUT AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN. BE ALERT FOR
RISING WATER AND WATER COLLECTING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

REMEMBER NEVER DRIVE INTO ANY FLOODED ROAD. THE WATER MAY BE DEEPER
THAN YOU THINK.

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

$$ A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR EAST CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

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