Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASING MOIST. SOME
STORMS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT. EXPECT
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING
THROUGH MFD TO MGW WHICH WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT.

EXPECTATIONS REMAIN HIGH FOR MCS TO DEVELOP ON LOW LEVEL JET AND
SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...WITH HIGH CAPE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS POSTED FOR ZONES GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS TO OUR NORTH WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING
EAST SATURDAY MORNING. POPS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN.
KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND STILL A
CHANCE OF THUNDER FAR SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL HOLD OVER REGION...WITH 500H TROUGH
REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EVENING OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO TRIGGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WARM FRONT LYING FROM TOLEDO TO NEAR MORGANTOWN AND MOVE EAST
FROM 19/22Z TO ABOUT 20/04Z.

LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.  CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10Z-18Z. COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS REGION DURING THE MORNING BRING AN END TO MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY 18Z.

POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING IN FOG WITH SOME CLEARING...
LIGHT WINDS...AND PLENTY OF LEFT OVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE
FOG.

WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLED OFF EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
EXPECTS GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER CWA.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ013-020-021-029>032.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
610 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

OHZ039-048-192315-
COSHOCTON OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
610 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPILDLY APPROACHING COSHOCTON AND
TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES...

AT 608 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAYLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGAING
WINDS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  LAYLAND...            BLISSFIELD...         WARSAW...
  SUGARCREEK...         BALTIC...             COSHOCTON...
  BAKERSVILLE...        WEST LAFAYETTE...     STONE CREEK...
  NEWCOMERSTOWN...      GNADENHUTTEN...

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.