Tornado Warning 59, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR THE LATEST TAF ISSUANCE.
WE WILL ALSO REMOVE THE HEAT ADVISORY W/W/A INFORMATION BELOW
SINCE THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009/
DUE TO AWIPS/NAS COMMS ISSUES BOTH SECTIONS OF AFD WILL BE MORE
LIMITED IN SCOPE THAN USUAL. NEAR TERM FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
CONFINED TO LATEST SPC/COLLABORATIVE THINKING...SLIGHTLY SLOWER
FRONTAL APPROACH AND AS SUCH MDT RISK STAYS TO OUR NORTH. PRE
FRONTAL DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY IMPACT MAINLY OUR NRN/NERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FA. OTHERWISE AROUND/AFT 06Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH. SMALL CHANCE PRE-CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW COULD
IMPACT AREA AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER. EITHER WAY POPS SPIKE TONIGHT-
EARLY TOMORROW WITH FRONTAL APPROACH. FRONT STILL SORT OF WASHES
OUT AS IT BANGS INTO STRONG ANTI-CYCLONE HOLDING FIRM OVER SCNTL
U.S. THIS WASHED OUT BOUNDARY THEN BECOMES FOCUS FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL CONTINUATION OF POPS THRU THE WEEKEND.

OTHER SHORT TERM FEATURE OF NOTE IS HEAT/HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORY
CONTINUES TODAY THRU 00Z AND BRIEFING SUGGESTED POSSIBILITY FOR
ANOTHER ONE TOMORROW. NEGATING FACTORS INCLUDE APPROACH OF FRONT
AND ITS NEAR PROXIMITY TOMORROW AS WELL AS RESULTANT MID OR HIGH
CLOUD SHIELD THAT LINGERS AND POTENTIALLY MUTES HIGHS TOMORROW.
FOR NOW WELL PROBABLY GO STATUS QUO BUT MONITOR LATEST COLLAB PIC
AND QUICK LOOK AT WHAT GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE FOR US BEFORE FINAL
CALL AFTER THIS WRITING.

MEDIUM TO LONGER RANGE THE RIDGING WINS OUT CERTAINLY BY MID WEEK
NEXT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FINISHES OUT DRY AND STILL
HOT OR AT LEAST AOA CLIMO NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT KEVV AND KOWB. WINDS WILL
STAY UP AGAIN FROM THE SSW. GENERALLY 5-7KTS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE
WESTERLY SATURDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION...THAT ARE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

..NOLES..

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE..
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
248 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A CAPE GIRARDEAU...TO PADUCAH...TO MADISONVILLE LINE.
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES AND IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...REFER TO THE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUSLY HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS FORECAST SATURDAY.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS SHOULD A SEVERE STORM OCCUR.

MINOR FLOODING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE. REFER TO
THE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE REQUESTED TONIGHT THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
412 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

INZ081-082-192215-
PIKE-GIBSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETERSBURG
512 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 508 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZE
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5
MILES EAST OF HAZLETON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

MARBLE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN KNOX COUNTY WITHIN
THE PAST 10 TO 15 MINUTES...SO MOVE INDOORS TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.
STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND DEBRIS AND
OTHER OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
438 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

ILZ075-192200-
JEFFERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON
438 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL...AND
STRONG WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WALTONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL MOVE NEAR INTERSTATE 57 BY 450 PM CDT AND JUST SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 64 BY 510 PM CDT.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED...SO MOVE INDOORS TO A PLACE OF SAFETY. STRONG
WINDS MAY BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND DEBRIS AND OTHER
OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
826 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W PETERSBURG          38.49N 87.32W
06/19/2009                   PIKE               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LATE REPORT. LIVESTOCK TRAILER BLOWN OVER...LARGE TREE
            DOWN...CONCRETE POLE DOWN

&&

MY