Tornado Warning 43, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN ISSUE IS ATTEMPTING TO NAIL DOWN THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR
CONVECTION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEK...WHICH MEANS THE FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL LINGER IN THE THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AT
JUST ABOUT ANY TIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY 18Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TOMORROW.

BY 12Z WEDNESDAY THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS THE
MAIN LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLES FOCUS ON
MAIN WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. THE SECOND AND MORE IMPRESSIVE
WAVE IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO MID DAY THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z
FRIDAY...HOWEVER...THAT MAY NOT BE THE END AS THE NEXT LOW CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. VERY DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THE
FRONT WILL BE BY LATE IN THE WEEK. WAVES OF ENERGY MAY BRING
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA. MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT
A DECENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAD DEPARTED ALL TAF SITES BY MID AFTERNOON.
GIVEN AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR TSRA INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY EVENING THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS OF
TSRA FOR ALL SITES INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RULE FOR THE DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME LIMITED
MVFR DUE TO FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK. BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA ON TUE WILL BE
KCGI AND KPAH BUT WILL BE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND
MINIMAL EVEN THEN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

RLS/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
453 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
453 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...ALONG
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING. THE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE WABASH AND OHIO RIVERS LATE THIS
EVENING. SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING...HOWEVER EVEN
THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ON BOTH TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THIS EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO
BE REQUESTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DRS