Tornado Warning 14, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY EVENING.  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...THUS A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 02Z.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS LOW
WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  RAIN AND SNOW
WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES...BUT NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW DRIER AIR AND SUNSHINE
QUICKLY RETURNING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY
RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A NICE WARM UP ON MONDAY.  MONDAY
NIGHT...ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE AREA.  AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

BY MID WEEK...THROUGH GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GREAT
AGREEMENT...BOTH MODELS BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ECMWF LINGERS SOME QPF ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

FOR NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES...BASICALLY USED A MAV/MET BLEND.  IN THE
EXTENDED...STAYED WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS S IL/W KY ATTM
WITH COLD FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS
TRICKY AS IT HAS BEEN SLOWING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PASSING BY
KCGI ATTM. EXPECT IT TO REACH KOWB/KEVV IN THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME.
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF IT THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30KTS BRIEFLY
WITH THE FROPA. BEST CHANCE FOR SVR TSRA WILL BE ACROSS W KY EAST OF
THE LAKES. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WITH LITTLE/NO
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...RST
AVIATION...AD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
950 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-291000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
950 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

FROM MIDDAY...INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST
TO DESTABILIZE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA...EAST OF THE LOW TRACK. THE
LATEST MORNING MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN
FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF WE TAP ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME
HEATING...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZE. THE AREA OF HIGHEST PROBABILITY
SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED ON WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE CHANCE SHOULD BE OVER
BEFORE DARK ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY AND PERHAPS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS.

NOLES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

KYZ007-010-282130-
LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SMITHLAND...MARION
324 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
KENTUCKY...

THROUGH 4 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LIVINGSTON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY.
THE STORM WILL PASS OVER THE CITY OF MARION KENTUCKY AROUND 345
PM.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE
STORM COULD INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS AT ANY TIME. GUSTY WINDS
AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

YORK