Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
522 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009/

BIGGEST CHALLENGE...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL BE THE
HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEGINNING TO AFFECT OUR CWA.

A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
RACE ACROSS ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING
SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERED MOST OF OUR CWA GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD
LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND WILL LIKELY SET UP SHOP JUST NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BASED ON THE
CURRENT AND FORECAST POSITION OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE...WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO SPLIT THE FIRST PERIOD POP/WX GRIDS TO BETTER
DEFINE THE AREA/S OF GREATEST POTENTIAL.

DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITHOUT A FLOOD WATCH DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND FAST MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GROUND
IS SATURATED AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...THE
GREATER THREAT MAY BE FOR UPROOTED TREES WITH THE CONVECTIVE AND
NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
INSERT A MENTION OF THIS IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE NPW.

LATEST MODEL RUNS A BIT DIFFERENT ON THE TIMING/MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEY ALL MOVE THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY ACROSS OUR CWA.
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER EAST CENTRAL IL/WEST CENTRAL IN BY 18Z. IN THE
PROCESS IT WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS
STILL NOT THAT ROBUST IN QPF WITH THE LINE...AND SEEMS TO
EMPHASIZE THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE QUAD STATE
FOR THE BEST CONVECTION. CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR TRUE SURFACE- BASED CONVECTION.

INSTABILITY IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WIND
FIELDS IN PLACE...ANY AMOUNT OF POSITIVE CAPE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR AT LEAST A FINE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH COULD BRING DOWN
THE EXTREME 70-80KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE OFF THE CHARTS...SO IF
THERE IS MUCH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS COULD RESULT. HAVE TO KEEP THAT IN MIND...BUT FEEL THAT
A FINE LINE IS THE MOST LIKELY MODE WITH THE FRONT.

THIS AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THE CWA. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY AND
A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY PRECIP CHANCES
WILL CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE GREATEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM ACTUALLY
TRACKS ACROSS OUR CWA. ON SATURDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE...RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE ENDING. MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH S TO SW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS. ISOLD GUSTS MAY
REACH 40 KTS. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SW THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS 35 TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. BKN VFR CIGS
JUST ABOVE 3K FT SHOULD BE THE RULE WITH OCNL MVFR OR BRIEF IFR
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION. SOME BREAKS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BALLARD-
     CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-
     FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-
     MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-
     WEBSTER.

MO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BOLLINGER-
     BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY
     MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALEXANDER-
     EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-
     WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GIBSON-PIKE-
     POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
602 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111815-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
602 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM. REFER TO THE WARNING
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST AT 60 TO 70 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

JAP

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