Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND WHERE/WHEN
TO PLACE SMALL POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE 12Z MON MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SFC TEMPS AT
24 HOURS OUT THEN COOLING. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO 12Z SUN MODEL
RUNS ONLY DELAYED ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THUS CONTINUED HEAT ADVISORY.
DID NOT EXTEND ATTM HOWEVER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADING WESTWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THIS IS VIABLE. ALSO TSRAS SEEM TO HAVE NO PROBLEM
PENETRATING 10C 700 MB TEMPS TODAY AND MODELS SUGGEST ABOUT A DEGREE
COOLER TUE AND THEN SOME EAST. THUS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC AREA
WIDE ALBEIT EAST SECTIONS LOOK THE BEST. OTHERWISE IF THE MOS OUTPUT
CONTINUES TREND OF WARMING TEMPS 24 HOURS OUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
ADVISORY PERIOD BUT POSSIBLY CURTAIL TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
ALSO THURSDAY FRONT CREEPS DOWN INTO THE FA WHICH PROMPTED A MENTION
OF TSRAS ATTM. ALSO MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON SLGT POPS ON
SUNDAY...MAY BE MORE LIKE AFTN EVENING AS FRONT AGAIN FLIRTS WITH
THE AREA. UNTIL THEN WITH INTENSE HEATING COULD EXPECT AN ISLD TSRA
ANY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH FREEZING LEVELS WELL ABOVE 15K
FEET...WOULD NOT EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAJOR THREAT. ALSO WIND
PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE FOR CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...THINK SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DO GET GOING...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE COMPETITION FOR FUEL.

OTHERWISE CONTINUED HOT WITH VERY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
AGAIN POP UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE AGAIN IN
THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE A BIT
HIGHER MONDAY IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. ANY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BALLARD-CALDWELL-
     CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-DAVIESS-FULTON-
     GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-LYON-MARSHALL-
     MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION KY-WEBSTER.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-
     FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE
     IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
     SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

KH/JAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
419 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-231000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
419 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAT
ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TUESDAY. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP TO SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY.

DANGEROUSLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
HEAT ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

MINOR FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DRS

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