Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT/
WEAK LINE OF CONVERGENCE AIDED BY A DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
IN WNWLY FLOW IS TRIGGERING SHRA/TSRA FROM NORTH OF JACKSON MO
EAST TO NEAR MADISONVILLE KY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TODAY...FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AND
THE BEST SHEAR IS TO OUR EAST. IN ANY CASE THESE STORMS WILL
WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN THE MID LEVELS. NEXT ITEM TO WATCH WILL BE THE MCS
EXPECTED TO BE HEADING INTO IOWA/NW MO TONIGHT. WHAT IS LEFT OF
THAT SYSTEM WOULD REACH THE WABASH VALLEY/SW IN BETWEEN 12Z AND
15Z THURSDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN AXIS OF MID LEVEL FLOW AND
PLACEMENT OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS...EXPECT THAT THE MAJORITY OF
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA WHILE WEAKENING.
OTHERWISE...RAISED LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GIVEN NEW MOS GUIDANCE AND
HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SINCE THE FORECAST THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS HAS BEEN HIGHLY
INFLUENCED BY MISO/MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SURFACE/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...I ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUBTLE VARIATIONS TO
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST BEFORE WE GET TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

THE ONE SOLID SIGNAL FOR BOTH THE SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT
EXTENSION OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL NW-SEWD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE SHARP GRADIENT
MESHES WELL WILL WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK
AREA FROM THE NOAA STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

THE BIGGEST CONCERN THAT I HAVE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY IS THE
AMOUNT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 DEGREES HIGHER ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE
AND DEWPOINT VALUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE
RAISED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY...BUT AM PROBABLY A LITTLE
LOWER THAN I SHOULD BE AT THIS TIME. THIS KEEPS APPARENT
TEMPERATURE VALUES /HEAT INDEX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/ BELOW
THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR DEWPOINTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED.

PLAN TO KEEP MENTION OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CURRENT ZONE TEXT
PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. I MAY ALSO HIGHLIGHT IN AN SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT OR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...SINCE THIS WOULD BE
THE FIRST...BUT BRIEF...HEAT EPISODE IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

WITH RESPECT TO THE COLD FRONT...LEANED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER ECMWF/SREF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. THE PLACEMENT OF
POP/WEATHER IN SPACE AND TIME WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY LOCAL
MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM INTERACTIONS...BUT THE CURRENT GRIDDED
FORECAST SHOULD PROVIDE A TEMPLATE FOR THE MEAN LOCATION FOR RAIN
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA MAY BE DRIER THAN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...SO MAY END UP
ADJUSTING POPS/WEATHER FURTHER NORTHWARD WITH LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES.

/SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/

THE MEAN POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS DETERMINISTIC OPERATIONAL RUNS TRY TO DEVELOP AN
SEMI-PERMANENT AXIS OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A PROGGED SHEAR AXIS
ALOFT AND AN IMPLIED CONVERGENCE ZONE AT THE SURFACE. AT THIS
TIME...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION AND PREFER TO
UTILIZE THE HPC AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...PLAN TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE
WFO PAH FORECAST AREA...REFLECTING THE INFLUENCE OF HIGHER
THICKNESSES IN THIS AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
LAPS SHOW UNSTABLE MESO ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO PM THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN HEAT/HUMIDITY OF DIURNAL PEAK. BEST CHANCE ZONE
APPEARS TO BE OVERTOP BUILDING HEIGHTS/RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF RETURNING
WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY...IE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR JUST SOUTH
OF OUR ERN TAF SITES NAMELY ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WKY. NAM
MODELS THIS CONVECTION AND SUGGESTS IT LASTS THRU THE DIURNAL
PEAK/DIMINISHES THEREAFTER. HAVE INCLUDED CB MENTIONS ALL TAFS BUT
THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION SHOULD MISS SITES
THEMSELVES. AFT THAT OTHER THAN MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT CGI/PAH
LATE...RETURNING SLYS AND DIURNAL CU TOMORROW ARE THE ONLY OTHER
FEATURES OF NOTE THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...DH
SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-181000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
510 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY MAY IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT...HUMID AIR IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH AFTERNOONS MAY BE AROUND
100 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF HEAT TO
AFFECT THE REGION THIS SEASON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE QUAD STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS A POSSIBILITY TODAY...AND MORE LIKELY LATE
FRIDAY.

RJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
134 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

KYZ015-016-021-171945-
WEBSTER-HOPKINS-MUHLENBERG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...GREENVILLE
134 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

AT 130 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
CENTRAL CITY AND DRAKESBORO IN EASTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY. INTENSE
RAINFALL OF ALMOST 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. MORE SCATTERED STORMS STRETCHED FURTHER WEST
TOWARD PROVIDENCE BUT THE MOST INTENSE CELL THROUGH 2 PM WILL BE
EAST OF GREENVILLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

KYZ010-013-015>017-020>022-172030-
CRITTENDEN-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-
TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARION...PRINCETON...DIXON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
226 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

AT 225 PM...PADUCAH RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED
ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR PROVIDENCE...SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
MADISONVILLE...TO AROUND GRAHAM AND GREENVILLE. INTENSE RAINFALL
OF ALMOST 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL OR
GUSTY WINDS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             GREENVILLE              37.21N 87.18W
06/17/2009  E0.75 INCH       MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0315 PM     FLOOD            CENTRAL CITY            37.30N 87.13W
06/17/2009                   MUHLENBERG         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL STREETS WITH MINOR FLOODING

&&

DLL