Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
354 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
A MID LEVEL SHRTWV TROF...INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PAH FCST AREA. THIS PROVIDED
ENOUGH LIFT FOR COPIOUS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE NRN PART OF THE
REGION THIS AFTN...DESPITE MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT PUNCHED INTO THE
REGION A FEW HOURS AGO. THE BEST COVERAGE OF PCPN THE AFTN/EVE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION CLOSER TO THE VORT
ENERGY AND AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THIS AREA WILL COMBINE WITH 2000+ J/KG CAPES TO PROVIDE
SVR POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH WIND/HAIL/HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
MAIN HAZARDS. COVERAGE OF PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
TROF AND COLD FRONT MOVE EWD MOSTLY THROUGH THE REGION.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
SHORT REDUCTION IN THE RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. ECMWF HANGS THE
FRONT UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS PLANTS THE
FRONT RIGHT ACROSS THE FA. IN EITHER CASE...THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THE REGION HAS BEEN IN ALL WEEK WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SO WENT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING
THESE TIME PERIODS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE GFS BECOMES MORE
AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PRECIP NORTHEAST AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND KEEPS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...AND ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE...GRADUALLY TAPERING POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND WENT DRY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED TEMPS ARE A BIT IFFY BASED ON UNCERTAINTY OF THE FRONTAL
LOCATION...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS AROUND 70.  BASICALLY STAYED WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE COMMON IN THE NRN HALF OF THE REGION IN THE
SHORT TERM...MEANING BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBY POSSIBLY INTO IFR
RANGE...PLENTIFUL LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH ALSO...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVE. OVNGT AND INTO THE MRNG...SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BUT WILL BE FURTHER
EVALUATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...DB
LONG TERM...RST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
342 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
342 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE STRONG WIND AND HAIL. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

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