River Flood Warning 76, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
549 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION SECTION IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE 252 AM ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACQUIRE A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 990 MB AS IT TRACKS NORTH ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL. MOST GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND POSSIBLY
AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW ENCOUNTERING
THE OZARK FOOTHILLS. LOCATION AND TIMING OF FLOOD WATCH LOOKS VERY
GOOD. TOTAL RAINFALL STILL LOOKS ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OR THREE
INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE HILLY TERRAIN OF SE
MISSOURI.

AS FOR THE WIND THREAT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
INVERSION. DESPITE TREMENDOUS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /80 KNOTS AT 850
MB/...MIXING THIS WIND DOWN WILL BE DIFFICULT. GFS HAS BEEN
INDICATING 40 KNOTS BARELY OFF THE SURFACE...SO EVEN THE WEAKEST
MIXING CONDITIONS COULD STILL YIELD ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT LATER TONIGHT...MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL RISE RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...WIND FIELDS WILL BE DECREASING
STEADILY. AS A RESULT...WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY. COULD SEE A MESOSCALE TYPE WIND EVENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT THIS IS TOUGH FOR MOST CONVENTIONAL MODELS
TO PICK UP.

ONCE THE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES...COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN LATER
TONIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE INCREASINGLY SHOWING STRONGER IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW...WHICH RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY QPF AND HIGHER MODEL
POPS. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES...FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF GFS MOS AND SREF 2 METER TEMPS THROUGH
CHRISTMAS NIGHT...THEN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW GFS MOS THIS WEEKEND.

AT LONGER RANGES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT MID WEEK. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
INCREASE CLOUDS...BUT FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY DUE TO CONCERNS
ABOUT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...
EMPHASIZED THE FIRST 3-4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
VERY POSSIBLE IN THE WEST INCLUDING KCGI AND KPAH. THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT...AS WE SHOULD BE BETWEEN WAVES
OF PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS.

IFR OR LOW MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL
BAND OF RAINS WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM MID AFTERNOON IN
THE FAR WEST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST.

TRIED TO KEEP GUSTS IN REASONABLE CHECK THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN
HIT THEM HARDEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...WHEN THE BOUNDARY/MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS AND STRONGER WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BALLARD-CALDWELL-CALLOWAY-CARLISLE-CHRISTIAN-CRITTENDEN-
     DAVIESS-FULTON-GRAVES-HENDERSON-HICKMAN-HOPKINS-LIVINGSTON-
     LYON-MARSHALL-MCCRACKEN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-TRIGG-UNION
     KY-WEBSTER.

MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE
     GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-
     SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BOLLINGER-BUTLER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-CARTER-MISSISSIPPI-NEW
     MADRID-PERRY MO-RIPLEY-SCOTT-STODDARD-WAYNE MO.

IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-
     HAMILTON-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-PERRY IL-PULASKI-SALINE-
     UNION IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     ALEXANDER-EDWARDS-FRANKLIN-GALLATIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-MASSAC-PERRY IL-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-UNION
     IL-WABASH-WAYNE IL-WHITE-WILLIAMSON.

IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-SPENCER-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK.

&&

PUBLIC...MY
AVIATION...DRS

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