Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
131 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS AGREE THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE QUICKLY
EAST TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE PLAINS. THE
RETURN FLOW SLYS THAT DEVELOP WILL INCREASE MOISTURE IN EARNEST
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WITH SCATTERED OVERRUNING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AS A WARM FRONT IS LIFTED NORTH. THIS MAY PRECLUDE
FROST FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD IN DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
ANTICIPATED TO TOUCH INTO THE MID 30S NORTH...IF CLOUDS INCREASE
ENOUGH FROM THE WEST...IT MAY LEAVE THE NE VULNERABLE...SOMETHING
WELL LOOK AT MORE CLOSELY. EITHER WAY INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED AND BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MENTION OF THUNDER ALL BUT
THE FAR SE/PENNYRILE REGION THRU 00Z FRI...AFTER WHICH THE CHANCE
EXPANDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS WE WARM SECTOR. WE REMAIN IN
SWODY2 SLGT RISK WITH NEAR/CATEGORICAL POPS LATE THU NIGHT-FRI ON
SYSTEM PASSAGE.

POPS END FRI WEST-EAST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS
THE FA. THIS STARTS A GENERALLY DRY/PLEASANT EASTER WEEKEND. THE
NEXT SYSTEM EVOLUTION LOOKS LIKE IT TOO TAKES PLACE IN THE SRN
PLAINS AND MOVES IN LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WITH AT LEAST AT THIS
POINT PERHAPS THE BEST CHC TSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. STILL
WARRANT MENTION HERE THOUGH PROBABLY B/C BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND THE
GFS LIFT THIS WOUND UP SYSTEM ACROSS THE FA. THATLL SPELL A WET
SUN NIGHT-MON WITH A COOL/DAMP BACK SIDE OF THE LIFTING LOW
SCENARIO FOR MON-MON NIGHT-TUE...BUT AT LEAST NOT AS COOL AS THIS
PAST MON-TUE BACK SIDE OF LOW IS THE GOOD NEWS.

AFTER THAT THE MID WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH MAYBE ANOTHER CHANCE
STARTING TO FLIRT WITH MENTION IN THE FORECAST BY LATE DAY 7 OR
MORE LIKELY DAY 8. IE THE TYPICAL SPRING REGIME IS IN TACT.

MOS TEMPS ARE CLOSE/LIKEWISE CLOSE TO INHERITED NOS SO ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES EXPECTED. MEDIUM-LONGER RANGE NOS ARE CLOSE TO INHERITED
AND LIKEWISE ONLY TWEEKED OFF HPC/NEW MOS FOR SOME COLLABORATIVE
FINE-TUNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IS SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE PREVALENT...WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...AT LEAST TIL CLOSER TO SUNSET. A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE KEVV AND KOWB
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
206 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
206 PM CDT WED APR 8 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
QUAD STATE LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE
AREA.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO AND
MISSISSIPI RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCLUDING
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE QUAD STATE REGION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND BRINGS WITH IT A THUNDERSTORM AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BETWEEN THE TWO WEATHER
SYSTEMS...ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE INCHES TO PERHAPS 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATED TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES.

MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI RIVERS AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WHITE
AND WABASH RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT STATUS IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED THURSDAY NIGHT.