Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1247 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED/ING ALONG OUTFLOW FROM MCS THAT ROLLED OUT
OF MO EARLIER TODAY. ALL MODELS PICK UP ON THIS BUT NONE GRASP IT IN
ITS ENTIRETY OR EXACTLY. THE NAM LATCHES ON AND CONTINUES TO BLOSSOM
IT ON MORE OF A SOUTHWARD TRACK ACROSS FA/PARTICULARLY
SEMO...WHEREAS GFS SEEMS MORE REALISTIC IN A BASIC NWLY-SELY
COMPONENT OF MOVEMENT. TIME WILL TELL BUT FOR NOW WE WILL MONITOR
AND LIKELY SPLIT THE DIFF/COLOR THE COLLAB PIC AS BEST AS POSSIBLE.
NEW SWODY1 CONTINUES SLGT RISK SVR ALONG SAID BOUNDARY AS
WELL...AND FOR NOW HAVE CONVECTIVE WATCH FOR FARTHEST ERN
COUNTIES/ONGOING CONVECTION. TIME WILL TELL ON WAR BETWEEN
EXTREMELY HIGH CAPES (L500S J/KG NERN FA) VS H7 CAPPING TEMPS
AROUND 10C SWRN 2/3 FA. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT
PARTICULARLY IN HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

BEYOND TONIGHT...NEW GFS SUGGESTS IT GETS DRY BY THURS/FRIDAY...WHILE
NAM CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO POPS THRU THURSDAY. GOING FORECAST DOES
SAME...SO COLLABORATION WILL AGAIN BE KEY AS TO HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO POPS. FOR NOW ITS NO GREAT PAIN TO CONTINUE SMALLISH POPS
BUT W/OUR OVERALL FAVOR TOWARD GFS WELL SEE IF OTHERS WANT TO DRY
IT OUT OR NOT.

RIDGING STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
BROAD 594-598DM H5 HIGH CENTERING ACROSS SE/SCNTL U.S.  RESULTANT
AIRMASS FOR US WILL BE HOT/HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO
TRIPLE DIGITS SAT-SUN PM...S/B HIGHLIGHT ON HWO/CONTINUED.

BLENDED NEW MOS W/GOING TEMPS FORECAST AND COLLAB PIC FOR OUR FINAL
TEMP/TD FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLIER THIS MORNING LAID OUT
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUP
FOR TSRA AT KPAH/KCGI. AT KEVV AND KOWB...THERE IS SOME
STABILIZATION FROM EARLIER STORMS THAT PASSED TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...CONTINUED THE TEMPO GROUPS
THERE AS WELL. LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS
RELATIVELY STORM FREE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

ILZ080-081-084>094-KYZ001>017-021-022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-
114-051000-
PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-
JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-
CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-
CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. REFER TO THE
WATCH FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEAT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

ILZ075>078-082-083-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ018>020-051000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TONIGHT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
REGION...BUT STORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA CAN BECOME
SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORM. THE PRIMARY THREAT PERIOD IS THROUGH 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF ILLINOIS AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEAT BEGINS TO INCREASE.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LEVELS
THIS WEEKEND. THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MAINTAIN ALERT IN CASE THEIR ACTIVATION IS
REQUESTED.

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